Climate change impacts on global agriculture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alvaro Calzadilla  Katrin Rehdanz  Richard Betts  Pete Falloon  Andy Wiltshire  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):357-374

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.  相似文献   

Modelling direct,diffuse, and total solar radiation for cloudless days     

P.W. Suckling  J.E. Hay 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):298-308

A simple form of solar radiation model was analysed for cloudless days for Goose, Nfld., Port Hardy, B.C., and Edmonton, Alta. Performance for daily values of total solar radiation was satisfactory; however, data for Goose indicated that the model over‐and under‐estimated the direct and diffuse components of solar radiation, respectively. Modifications, including solving for an aerosol parameter k and substituting 0.6 forward scattering instead of the more commonly used 0.5, improved model performance for direct and diffuse radiation.  相似文献   

Precipitable Water Over Canada: II Distribution     

John E. Hay 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):101-111

The mean monthly distributions of total precipitable water over Canada, based on values computed for 168 locations, are presented and discussed.

Attention is drawn to the existence of such quasi‐permanent features as the primary and secondary minima over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Western Cordillera, respectively, and the strong zonal gradient in the precipitable water field over the west coast of Canada. As a consequence of the greater spatial sampling density (relative to that if only upper air data had been used in the calculation of precipitable water) mesoscale features, such as those associated with the influence of large water bodies, are illustrated.

Finally, avenues for the application of the results obtained in this study and areas worthy of further research are reviewed.  相似文献   

A cloud layer‐sunshine model for estimating direct,diffuse and total solar radiation     

P.W. Suckling  J.E. Hay 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):194-207

A previous study (Suckling and Hay, 1976a) described a method for calculating hourly values of the direct and diffuse solar radiation for cloudless sky conditions. This paper presents an extension which incorporates the effects of clouds through the use of hourly values of cloud amount and type for up to four layers and hourly bright sunshine totals. The latter data provide a more accurate measure of the length of time the direct radiation of the sun is not attenuated by cloud. On an average, the cloud layer‐sunshine (CLS) model estimated daily total solar radiation at five Canadian locations to within ±15 per cent of the measured values. This was an improvement over an earlier model (Davies et al., 1975) based on cloud data alone, but the relative advantage, as well as the overall errors themselves, were diminished as the averaging period was increased to five and ten days. The CLS model has the additional advantage of calculating the separate direct and diffuse components of the total solar radiation.  相似文献   

Pyrite textures and compositions from the Zhuangzi Au deposit,southeastern North China Craton: implication for ore-forming processes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xing-Hui?Li  Hong-Rui?FanEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Kui-Feng?Yang  Pete?Hollings  Xuan?Liu  Fang-Fang?Hu  Ya-Chun?Cai 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(9):73

The Zhuangzi Au deposit in the world-class Jiaodong gold province hosts visible natural gold, and pyrite as the main ore mineral, making it an excellent subject for deciphering the complex hydrothermal processes and mechanisms of gold precipitation. Three types of zoned pyrite crystals were distinguished based on textural and geochemical results from EPMA, SIMS sulfur isotopic analyses and NanoSIMS mapping. Py0 has irregular shapes and abundant silicate inclusions and was contemporaneous with the earliest pyrite–sericite–quartz alteration. It has low concentrations of As (0–0.3 wt.%), Au and Cu. Py1 precipitated with stage I mineralization shows oscillatory zoning with the bright bands having high As (0.4–3.9 wt.%), Au and Cu contents, whereas the dark bands have low contents of As (0–0.4 wt.%), Au and Cu. The oscillatory zoning represents pressure fluctuations and repeated local fluid phase separation around the pyrite crystal. The concentration of invisible gold in Py1 is directly proportional to the arsenic concentration. Py1 is partially replaced by Py2 which occurs with arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite and native gold in stage II. The replacement was likely the result of pseudomorphic dissolution–reprecipitation triggered by a new pulse of Au-rich hydrothermal fluids. The δ³⁴S values for the three types of pyrite are broadly similar ranging from +?7.1 to +?8.8‰, suggesting a common sulfur source. Fluid inclusion microthermometry suggests that extensive phase separation was responsible for the gold deposition during stage II mineralization. Uranium–Pb dating of monazite constrains the age of mineralization to ca. 119 Ma coincident with a short compressional event around 120 Ma linked to an abrupt change in the drift direction of the subducting Pacific plate.  相似文献   

Timescales of convection in magma chambers below the Mid-Atlantic ridge from melt inclusions investigations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Aurélia?ColinEmail author  Fran?ois?Faure  Pete?Burnard 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,164(4):677-691

Closed hopper and complex swallowtail morphologies of olivine microcrysts have been described in the past in both mid-oceanic ridge basalts and subaerial tholeitic volcanoes and indicate fluctuations in magma undercooling. We describe similar morphologies in a Mid-Atlantic ridge pillow basalt (sample RD87DR10), and in addition we estimate the duration of temperature fluctuations required to produce these textures as follows: (1) Pairs of melt inclusions are arranged symmetrically around the centre of hopper crystals and each pair represents a heating–cooling cycle. Using the literature olivine growth rates relevant to the observed morphologies, and measuring the distance between two successive inclusions, we estimate the minimum time elapsed during one convection cycle. (2) The major element composition of melt inclusions (analysed by electron microprobe) was found to be in the range of the boundary layer measured in the glass surrounding the olivines, irrespective of their size. Several major elements demonstrate that this boundary layer results from rapid quenching on the seafloor, and not from crystal growth at depth, implying the inclusions had the same composition as the surrounding magma when they were sealed. Using diffusivity of slow diffusing elements such as Al₂O₃, we estimate the minimum time required for inclusion formation. These two independent approaches give concordant results: each cooling–heating cycle lasted between a few minutes and 1 h minimum. Thus, these crystals probably recorded thermal convection in small magmatic bodies (a dyke or shallow magma chamber) during the last hour or hours before eruption.  相似文献   

Nitrogen in peridotite xenoliths: Lithophile behavior and magmatic isotope fractionation     

Reika Yokochi  Bernard Marty  Pete Burnard 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(16):4843-7521

In order to document the origin and speciation of nitrogen in mantle-derived rocks and minerals, the N and Ar contents and isotopic compositions were investigated for hydrous and anhydrous peridotite xenoliths from Ataq, Yemen, from Eifel, Germany, and from Massif Central, France. Nitrogen and Ar were extracted by stepwise combustion with a fine temperature resolution, followed by fusion in a platinum crucible. A large isotopic disequilibrium of up to 25.4‰ is observed within single peridotite xenoliths, with δ¹⁵N values as low as −17.3‰ in phlogopite whereas clinopyroxene and olivine show positive δ¹⁵N values. Identical Sr isotopic ratios of phlogopite, clinopyroxene and whole rock in this wehrlite sample are consistent with crystallization from a common reservoir, suggesting that the light N signature of phlogopite might be the result of isotopic fractionation during N uptake from the host magma. The nitrogen concentration is systematically high in phlogopite, (7.6-25.7 ppm), whereas that of bulk peridotite xenoliths is between 0.1 and 0.8 ppm. The high N content of phlogopite is at least partly due to host magma-mineral interaction, and may also suggest the occurrence of N as that substituted for K⁺ during mineral growth in mafic magmas. Such speciation is consistent with the fact that N and Rb contents correlate well for a set of samples from mantle regions that were affected by subduction-related metasomatism and magmatism. The N/Rb ratios of these samples are comparable with values estimated for subduction zone magmas, but are one order of magnitude lower than the N/Rb ratios characterizing subducting slabs. This difference suggests preferential release of N relative to alkalis in the forearc region. N/⁴⁰Ar^∗ ratios of minerals from analyzed mantle xenoliths are much higher than those of vesicles in MORBs and OIBs, requiring either the occurrence of nitrogen speciation in the mantle more compatible than Ar, significant loss of fluid phase during entrainment, or long residence time of volatile elements in the mantle source(s) of fluids to increase drastically the ⁴⁰Ar^∗ budget of the latter.  相似文献   

A coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to simulate dissolved organic carbon exports from a permafrost‐influenced catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Jason S. Lessels  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Sean K Carey  Pete Smith  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5383-5396

We outline the development of a simple, coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model for simulating stream discharge and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in data sparse, permafrost‐influenced catchments with large stores of soil organic carbon. The model incorporates the influence of active layer dynamics and slope aspect on hydrological flowpaths and resulting DOC mobilization. Calibration and evaluation of the model was undertaken using observations from Granger Basin within the Wolf Creek research basin, Yukon, northern Canada. Results show that the model was able to capture the dominant hydrological response and DOC dynamics of the catchment reasonably well. Simulated DOC was highly correlated with observed DOC (r² = 0.65) for the study period. During the snowmelt period, the model adequately captured the observed dynamics, with simulations generally reflecting the timing and magnitude of the observed DOC and stream discharge. The model was less successful over the later summer period although this partly reflected a lack of DOC observations for calibration. The developed model offers a valuable framework for investigating the interactions between hydrological and DOC processes in these highly dynamic systems, where data acquisition is often very difficult. © 2015 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling surface‐water depression storage in a Prairie Pothole Region          下载免费PDF全文

Lauren Hay  Parker Norton  Roland Viger  Steven Markstrom  R. Steven Regan  Melanie Vanderhoof 《水文研究》2018,32(4):462-479

In this study, the Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was used to simulate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the 1,126‐km² Upper Pipestem Creek basin located within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. The Prairie Pothole Region is characterized by millions of small water bodies (or surface‐water depressions) that provide numerous ecosystem services and are considered an important contribution to the hydrologic cycle. The Upper Pipestem PRMS model was extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM), developed to support consistent hydrologic modelling across the conterminous United States. The Geospatial Fabric database, created for the USGS NHM, contains hydrologic model parameter values derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire conterminous United States for 109,951 hydrologic response units. Each hydrologic response unit in the Geospatial Fabric was parameterized using aggregated surface‐water depression area derived from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus, an integrated suite of application‐ready geospatial datasets. This paper presents a calibration strategy for the Upper Pipestem PRMS model that uses normalized lake elevation measurements to calibrate the parameters influencing simulated fractional surface‐water depression storage. Results indicate that inclusion of measurements that give an indication of the change in surface‐water depression storage in the calibration procedure resulted in accurate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the water balance. Regionalized parameterization of the USGS NHM will require a proxy for change in surface‐storage to accurately parameterize surface‐water depression storage within the USGS NHM.  相似文献   

The cause of the Late Cenozoic Northern Hemisphere glaciations: a climate change enigma     

William W. Hay 《地学学报》1992,4(3):305-311

The ultimate cause of the onset of glaciations remains elusive, but in the case of northem hemisphere glaciation it is probable that several factors acted in combination. General global cooling resulted from reduction of atmospheric C0₂ by weathering of silicate rocks exposed by erosion of late Cenozoic uplifts. Uplifts in south Asia, southwestern North America and Scandinavia occurred at distances appropriate for the generation of quasi-permanent Rossby waves in the atmosphere. The resulting winds, given suitable moisture sources, were favourable for causing large-scale precipitation at mid-latitudes on the northern continents. Moisture sources were provided by the closure of the Central American isthmus. Gulf Stream flow increased, carrying warm subtropical waters to high latitudes. The Denmark Strait deepened permitting greater outflow of deep water from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The relative importance of each of these factors should be investigated by additional atmospheric and ocean climate model sensitivity studies.  相似文献