Does an upper limit to river water temperature apply in all places?          下载免费PDF全文

Stephen B. Shaw 《水文研究》2017,31(21):3729-3739

There remains continued use of non‐linear, logistic regression models for predicting water temperature from air temperature. A dominant feature of these non‐linear models is an upper bound on river water temperature. This upper bound is often attributed to a large increase in evaporative cooling at high air temperatures, but the exact conditions under which such an increase may occur have not been thoroughly explored. To better understand the appropriateness of the non‐linear model for predicting river water temperatures, it is essential to understand the physical basis for the upper bound and when it should and should not be included in the statistical model. This paper applies and validates an energy balance model against 8 river systems spread across different climate regions of the United States. The energy balance model is then used to develop a diagram relating vapour pressure deficit and air temperature to water temperature. With knowledge of present or future vapour pressure deficit (difference between saturation and actual vapour content in the atmosphere) conditions in a given climate, the diagram can be used to predict the likelihood of an upper bound in the air–water temperature relationship. This investigation offers a fundamental physical explanation of the most appropriate form of statistical models that should be used for predicting future water temperature from air temperature in different geographic regions with different climate conditions. In general, climatic regions that have only a slight increase in vapour pressure deficit with increasing air temperature (typically humid regions) would not be expected to have an upper bound. Conversely, climatic regions in which vapour pressure deficit sharply increases with increasing air temperature (typically arid regions) would be expected to have an upper bound.  相似文献   

Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. V. R. K. Prabhakar  Rajib Shaw 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):113-130

There is a growing evidence that the climate change do has implications for drought vulnerable India with studies projecting future possible reductions in monsoon related rainfall in the country. The existing drought risk mitigation and response mechanisms were looked into and gaps were identified by drawing lessons from previous disasters and response mechanisms. In absence of reliable climate predictions at the scales that make them useful for policy level planning, the emphasis was on identifying no-regret adaptation options those would reduce current vulnerabilities while mainstreaming the adaptation in the long run. The most notable climate change implications for the drought vulnerable India are the enhanced preparedness with due emphasis to the community based preparedness planning, reviewing the existing monsoon and drought prediction methodologies, and establishing drought monitoring and early warning systems in association with a matching preparedness at the input level.  相似文献   

Exploring the possibilities of school-based recovery and community building in Toni District,Kamaishi     

Shohei Matsuura  Rajib Shaw 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):613-633

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Investigating the linkage between streamflow recession rates and channel network contraction in a mesoscale catchment in New York state          下载免费PDF全文

Stephen B. Shaw 《水文研究》2016,30(3):479-492

The rate of recession (dQ/dt) in a given time interval has long been plotted in log–log space against the concurrent mean discharge (Q_avg). Recent interpretations of these dQ/dt–Q_avg plots have sought to look at curves for individual events instead of the data cloud from all the data points together. These individual recession curves have been observed to have near‐constant slope but to have varying intercepts, features hypothesized to possibly be explained by the nature of the contraction of the active channel network during recession. For a steep, 150‐ha forested catchment in central New York state with an 8.8‐km channel network, changes in the active channel network were mapped between April and November 2013. Streamflow recession occurred in a matter of days, but changes in the active channel network occurred over a matter of weeks. Thus, in this catchment, it does not appear that channel contraction directly controls recession. Additionally, field observations indicate that dry down did not occur in a spatially organized, sequential way such that the upper end of higher‐order streams dried first. Instead, the location of groundwater seeps, in part, controlled the active portion of the channel network. Consistent with the presence of different types of flow contributing zones, the paper presents a conceptual model that consists of multiple parallel reservoirs of varying drainage rate and varying degrees of recharge at different times of the year. This conceptual model is able to reproduce a slope of 2 and a seasonal shift in intercept typical of individual recession curves. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Triggering transformative change: a development path approach to climate change response in communities     

Sarah Burch  Alison Shaw  Ann Dale  John Robinson 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):467-487

While climate change action plans are becoming more common, it is still unclear whether communities have the capacity, tools, and targets in place to trigger the transformative levels of change required to build fundamentally low-carbon, resilient, healthy communities. Evidence increasingly supports the finding that this transformation is not triggered by climate policy alone, but rather is shaped by a broad array of decisions and practices that are rooted in underlying patterns of development. Even so, these findings have rarely penetrated the domain of practice, which often remains squarely focused on a relatively narrow set of climate-specific policies. This article builds a conceptual framework for understanding the dynamics of community-level development path transformations that may both dramatically reduce GHG emissions and significantly enhance community resilience. This framework illuminates eight critical enablers of innovation on climate change, each of which is illustrated by compelling examples of community-level experimentation on climate change across the province of British Columbia, Canada. It is concluded that community-based climate (or sustainability) policy might be more likely to trigger development path shifts if it employs a longer time horizon, recognition of adaptability and feedbacks, integrated decision making, and systems thinking.  相似文献   

Measuring segregation: an activity space approach   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Wong DW  Shaw SL 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2011,13(2):127-145

While the literature clearly acknowledges that individuals may experience different levels of segregation across their various socio-geographical spaces, most measures of segregation are intended to be used in the residential space. Using spatially aggregated data to evaluate segregation in the residential space has been the norm and thus individual’s segregation experiences in other socio-geographical spaces are often de-emphasized or ignored. This paper attempts to provide a more comprehensive approach in evaluating segregation beyond the residential space. The entire activity spaces of individuals are taken into account with individuals serving as the building blocks of the analysis. The measurement principle is based upon the exposure dimension of segregation. The proposed measure reflects the exposure of individuals of a referenced group in a neighborhood to the populations of other groups that are found within the activity spaces of individuals in the referenced group. Using the travel diary data collected from the tri-county area in southeast Florida and the imputed racial–ethnic data, this paper demonstrates how the proposed segregation measurement approach goes beyond just measuring population distribution patterns in the residential space and can provide a more comprehensive evaluation of segregation by considering various socio-geographical spaces.  相似文献   

Citizens, consumers and sustainability: (Re)Framing environmental practice in an age of climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stewart Barr  Andrew Gilg  Gareth Shaw 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(4):1224-1233

Recent moves by national and local policy makers have sought to encourage individuals to engage in a wide range of pro-environmental practices to address both discrete environmental problems and major, global challenges such as climate change. The major framing device for these developments is the notion of ‘citizen–consumers’, which positions individual ecological responsibilities alongside consumer choice logics in a Neo-liberal socio-economic framework. In the environmental social sciences, there have been recent moves to interpret the citizen–consumer through adopting a social practices approach, which advances the notion that in understanding environmental commitments, a deeper appreciation of underlying norms, values, identity politics and consumption is required to uncover the complex processes that lead to environmental practices in specific contexts. This paper argues that whilst these approaches have considerable utility in tracing the normalisation of established and discrete environmental practices in particular contexts, the issue of climate change represents an independent and over-arching discursive conflict between new and embedded practices that challenges the ability of citizen–consumers to act as agents for change. Accordingly, the data presented in this paper suggest that climate change can be seen as an unsettling and dynamic issue that generates discursive conflict in its own right around fundamental issues of knowledge, responsibility, scale and place. The paper therefore argues that a new and more critical perspective is required within environmental social science to understand (conflicting) discourses of sustainable living between the ‘passive’ normalisation of conventional environmental practice and the ‘contested’ ambiguities of climate change.  相似文献   

Times for (Un)sustainability? Challenges and opportunities for developing behaviour change policy. A case-study of consumers at home and away     

Stewart Barr  Gareth Shaw  Tim Coles 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(4):1234-1244

This paper examines the assertion that individuals with seemingly high levels of commitment to the environment at home may also be those engaged in less sustainable leisure and tourism behaviours, including a high dependency on air travel. This potential difference in environmental commitments between different consumption settings is placed within the context of recent policy developments that have seen the rise of segmentation as a commonly applied technique used to understand and encourage pro-environmental behaviours through the notion of ‘sustainable lifestyles’ and social marketing campaigns. Using data derived from a questionnaire of consumers in the UK, three distinctive, empirically-defined ‘lifestyle’ groups are identified, based on the respondents’ environmental behaviours. Significant differences emerged in reported environmental commitments according to their consumption setting. Those with higher levels of commitment in and around the home also tended to be those who flew furthest and most frequently, whilst those with moderate-to-high commitments ‘at home’ often failed to transfer these activities to their holiday environments. The paper concludes by arguing that both academics and policy-makers need to address the role of different consumption settings in which behaviours are undertaken and the ways in which these relate to underlying social practices within these settings.  相似文献   

Radium-based pore water fluxes of silica, alkalinity, manganese, DOC, and uranium: A decade of studies in the German Wadden Sea   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

W.S. Moore  M. Beck  M. Rutgers van der Loeff  T.J. Shaw  B. Schnetger 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(21):6535-6555

A decade of studies of metal and nutrient inputs to the back-barrier area of Spiekeroog Island, NW German Wadden Sea, have concluded that pore water discharge provides a significant source of the enrichments of many components measured in the tidal channels during low tide. In this paper we add studies of radium isotopes to help quantify fluxes into and out of this system. Activities of radium isotopes in surface water from tidal channels in the back-barrier area exhibit pronounced changes in concert with the tide, with highest activities occurring near low tide. Other dissolved components: silica, total alkalinity (TA), manganese, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exhibit similar changes, with patterns matching the Ra isotopes. Uranium follows a reverse pattern with highest concentrations at high tide. Here we use radium isotope measurements in water column and pore water samples to estimate the fluxes of pore waters that enter the tidal channels during low tide. Using a flushing time of 4 days and the average activities of ²²⁴Ra, ²²³Ra, and ²²⁸Ra measured in the back-barrier surface and pore waters, we construct a balance of these isotopes, which is sustained by a deep pore water flux of (2-4) × 10⁸ L per tidal cycle. This flux transports Ra and the other enriched components to the tidal channels and causes the observed low tide enrichments. An independent estimate of pore water recharge is based on the depletion of U in the tidal channels. The U-based recharge is about two times greater than the Ra-based discharge; however, other sinks of U could reduce the recharge estimate. The pore waters have wide ranges of enrichment in silica, alkalinity, manganese, DOC, and depletion of U with depth. We estimate concentrations of these components in pore water from the depth expected to contribute the majority of the pore water flux, 3.5 m, to determine fluxes of these components to the tidal channels. Samples from this depth have minimum concentrations of silica, alkalinity, manganese, and DOC. We also estimate the exports of these components (and import of U) due to mixing based on average measured concentrations in the tidal creeks and the 4-day flushing time. A comparison of these estimates reveals that the exports (negative in the case of U) equal or exceed the pore water fluxes. By using values slightly higher than the minimum concentrations at 3.5 m to calculate inputs, the two estimates could be forced to match. We conclude that pore water drainage is the major factor regulating fluxes of Ra isotopes, silica, alkalinity, manganese, DOC, and uranium in this system.  相似文献   

The relationship between magnetic field strength and reversal frequency: Preliminary palaeointensity results from the cretaceous quiet zone     

Graham J. Sherwood  John Shaw 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1991,35(4):325-333

Summary It has been predicted that the geomagnetic field strength will be at its highest during periods of low reversal frequency. Using basaltic lavas from Israel and India, which were erupted during the 35 Ma interval of normal polarity in the mid-Cretaceous (the Cretaceous Quiet Zone), we have obtained palaeointensity estimates. The mean virtual dipole moments from the two areas are about 75% of the present value. This suggests that there is no simple relationship between the time averaged strength of the dipole and the frequency of reversals.  相似文献