Erratum to: Assessing response behaviour of debris-flows affected communities in Kaohsiung,Taiwan     

Yuner Luo  Rajib Shaw  Hanliang Lin  Jonas Joerin 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2311-2311

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Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology     

Flavia Burger  Alvaro Ayala  David Farias  Thomas E. Shaw  Shelley MacDonell  Ben Brock  James McPhee  Francesca Pellicciotti 《水文研究》2019,33(2):214-229

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.  相似文献   

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty     

Bi Yu Chen  Donggen Wang  Shih-Lung Shaw  Hui-Ping Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):783-804

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.  相似文献   

A comparison of archaeointensity results from Chinese ceramics using microwave and conventional Thellier's and Shaw's methods     

J. Shaw  S. Yang  T. C. Rolph  & F. Y. Sun 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,136(3):714-718

Palaeo- and archaeointensity determinations of the geomagnetic field are limited by mineralogical alteration that may occur when samples are heated in the laboratory to produce a TRM ( Thellier & Thellier 1959 ; Shaw 1974 ). By using microwave excitation of the magnetic grains we have been able to create a TRM without significantly heating the bulk samples, thereby avoiding thermal alteration ( Walton et al . 1993 ; Shaw et al . 1996 ). When applied to Peruvian ceramics in a manner analogous to the standard Thellier method, the microwave technique was found to reduce the scatter dramatically in the archaeointensity results ( Shaw et al . 1996 ). In the present study we apply this microwave technique to a collection of Chinese ceramics covering the time interval 2700–7500  yr BP. These ceramics have already been investigated using adaptations of both Thellier's ( Coe 1967 ) and Shaw's ( Rolph & Shaw 1985 ) palaeointensity methods ( Yang et al . 1993a ). Although an acceptable agreement was found between those two methods, the equivalent virtual axial dipole moments (VADMs) were significantly lower than for the global model of McElhinny & Senanayake (1982 ). The present study, using the microwave technique with cooling-rate correction, has provided more consistent VADMs, and is much closer to the global model.  相似文献   

Seasonal and interannual variations in the velocity field of the South China Sea   总被引：17，自引：1，他引：16  

Chau-Ron Wu  Ping-Tung Shaw  Shenn-Yu Chao 《Journal of Oceanography》1998,54(4):361-372

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate sea level and velocity variations in the South China Sea for 1992–1995. The model is driven by daily wind and daily sea surface temperature fields derived from the NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. The four-year model outputs are analyzed using time-domain Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). Spatial and temporal variations of the first two modes from the simulation compare favorably with those derived from satellite altimetry. Mode 1, which is associated with a southern gyre, shows symmetric seasonal reversal. Mode 2, which contributes to a northern gyre, is responsible for the asymmetric seasonal and interannual variations. In winter, the southern and northern cyclonic gyres combine into a strong basin-wide cyclonic gyre. In summer, a cyclonic northern gyre and an anticyclonic southern gyre form a dipole with a jet leaving the coast of Vietnam. Interannual variations are particularly noticeable during El Niño. The winter gyre is generally weakened and confined to the southern basin, and the summer dipole structure does not form. Vertical motions weaken accordingly with the basin-wide circulation. Variations of the wind stress curl in the first two EOF modes coincide with those of the model-derived sea level and horizontal velocities. The mode 1 wind stress curl, significant in the southern basin, coincides with the reversal of the southern gyre. The mode 2 curl, large in the central basin, is responsible for the asymmetry in the winter and summer gyres. Lack of the mode 2 contribution during El Niño events weakens the circulation. The agreement indicates that changes in the wind stress curl contribute to the seasonal and interannual variations in the South China Sea.  相似文献   

Can we predict the future food production? A sensitivity analysis     

Bo R. Ds  Roderick Shaw 《Global Environmental Change》1999,9(4):245

An attempt is made to assess the sensitivity of food production to various aspects of global change and environmental degradation during the next few decades. As a tool for this study a spreadsheet accounting system for food demand and supply is used. Taking into account the uncertainties of the various influencing factors, such as new technologies, improved management, increased fertilizer use, climatic change, expansion of irrigation, soil degradation and loss of agricultural land, the study indicates that one cannot say with any certainty whether or not food supply will meet expected demand in 2025, especially in Less Developed Countries. Bringing into use 10% of available potential cropland will make little difference.  相似文献   

The new hominid skeleton from Sterkfontein,South Africa: age and preliminary assessment     

Timothy C. Partridge  John Shaw  David Heslop  Ronald J. Clarke 《第四纪科学杂志》1999,14(4):293-298

A new hominid skeleton from Sterkfontein Member 2 attaches to foot bones recovered from loose blocks during the 1980s and first described in 1995. Several flowstone horizons are present above and below the skeleton and have given clear palaeomagnetic signatures. Five changes in magnetic polarity have been identified; when constrained by the available biostratigraphy, this sequence can be placed confidently between 3.22 and 3.58 Ma. Interpolation of sedimentation rates over the small intervals between reversals allows this range to be reduced to 3.30–3.33 Ma. The skeleton is thus the oldest yet discovered and is considered to belong to a species of Australopithecus other than africanus. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Program news: The international decade of ocean exploration... and beyond     

Richard Paul Shaw  Curtis A. Collins 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(2):189-195

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Sea level changes induced by local winds on the west coast of India     

Prakash Mehra  Michael N. Tsimplis  R. G. Prabhudesai  Antony Joseph  Andrew G. P. Shaw  Y. K. Somayajulu  Paolo Cipollini 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(4):819-833

The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period 2007–2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well as oceanographic data. Multilinear regression analysis is used to resolve the dependence of sea level on various forcing parameters. The multilinear regression analysis performed over approx. 2-year data shows that the local surface meteorological data and water temperature account for the sea level variability only up to 6%. The accounted sea level variability increases to 25%, when the local wind and the surface currents obtained from satellite altimetry in the near vicinity of the study area are incorporated in the regression analysis. The contribution of local wind increases substantially when the regression is performed over a 2-month duration, and it is variable within the year. During the summer monsoon season (May–September), the sea level variability attributable to wind is up to 47% and 75%, respectively, for 2007 and 2008; however, it reduces to <20% during the winter monsoon (November–February) season. A significant part of the variability observed in sea level remains unaccounted for and is attributed to remote forcing.  相似文献   

基于IC卡综合换乘信息的公交乘客上车站点推算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋晓晴  方志祥  尹凌  刘立寒  杨喜平  萧世伦 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(8):1060-1068

现有研究在缺少公交车运营信息的情况下,利用公交线间正交换乘信息的方法来识别公交车持卡乘客的上车站点,但在实际运用中很多班次无正交换乘的乘客,容易导致公交乘客上车站点匹配困难。因此,本文提出了一种基于IC卡综合换乘信息的公交乘客上车站点推算方法,该方法充分利用IC卡数据中的综合换乘信息（公交线间的正交和非正交换乘信息、地铁和公交线间的换乘信息）与公交网数据确定班次行驶方向,对班次内的乘客进行分组,充分利用综合换乘信息确定基准组及其对应的上车站点;然后,通过最小偏差规则匹配待定组的上车站点,实现公交乘客上车站点的推估。利用换乘信息确定班次行驶方向弥补了现有研究无法确定班次行驶方向的不足,使公交乘客上车站点推算方法更科学;最后,基于2011年8月的“深圳通”IC卡数据进行实例分析,对比只利用正交换乘信息确定的基准组数量和利用综合换乘信息确定的基准组数量,结果表明：该方法可使确定上车站点的组数占总组数的比值提高,克服了只利用正交换乘信息推算上车站点方法中存在的单个班次无基准组从而无法进行站点匹配的困难。本文方法比只利用正交换乘信息匹配站点,具有更高的可行性与准确率。  相似文献