Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Arman Ahmadi  Dimitri P. Solomatine 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(9):1080-1094

Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a “fuzzified” version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models.  相似文献   

Mapping thermal comfort in Iran based on geostatistical methods and bioclimatic indices     

Hamzeh Ahmadi  Fariborz Ahmadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(15):342

The cognition of thermal comfort plays a pivotal role in human life and activities. Recognizing thermal comfort based on climatic parameters is substantially significant. The main objective of the present study is to map thermal comfort using statistics from 43 meteorological stations, from 1970 to 2013. Initially, according to temperature and relative humidity, annual and seasonal thermal comfort conditions were mapped, and later bioclimatic human thermal comfort conditions in line with spatial factors were zoned based on bioclimatic indexes of Temperature Humidity Index (THI), effective temperature (ET) and Relative Strain Index (RSI). Among geostatistical methods, empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) method with less RSME is more efficient. The annual distribution of temperature changes according to spatial factors of rugged topography and elevation, and latitude affects relative humidity. Thermal comfort in the northern and western half of Iran is higher than the southern and eastern areas of the country. Spatial factors of latitude and altitude reduce bioclimatic uniformity and create small areas with or without thermal comfort conditions. Bioclimatic indicators based on air temperature and relative humidity range of bioclimatic zones show. The results of ET and THI divide the whole country into six zones, from lack of thermal comfort to having thermal comfort conditions. Areas of southern strip as well as central and southeastern parts of the country do not have any human thermal comfort conditions in most of the year.  相似文献   

Estimating geometrical parameters of cylindrical targets detected by ground-penetrating radar using template matching algorithm     

Reza Ahmadi  Nader Fathianpour 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(6):140

In the current research, the ground-penetrating radar (GPR) method has been employed to identify physical and geometrical parameters of buried cylindrical structures using the pattern recognition approach. To achieve this goal, the well-established mathematical relationships between geometrical parameters of cylindrical target (radius, burial depth, and horizontal location) and the associated GPR hyperbolic response characteristics are employed using the template matching method. In order to validate the applicability of the template matching method in providing estimates of such parameters, the method is first examined on GPR responses of synthetic models with known geometrical parameters followed by applying on real data using two different similarity criteria including 2-D spatial convolution and normalized cross correlation in the wave number domain. In the first step, the GPR responses of 71 synthetic models encompassing one, two, and three horizontal cylinders were produced using the improved 2-D finite difference in frequency domain. Then, appropriate preprocessing sequences to reduce random noise caused by forward modeling were applied on synthetic data. The proposed algorithm applied on several synthetic model responses could estimate the known geometrical parameters of the buried cylinders with acceptable accuracy (maximum error of 15%). The template matching algorithm was also used to extract geometrical parameters of water and wastewater pipes buried in Imam Hossein Square, Isfahan city, as real GPR data. Depending on environmental conditions and subsurface host formation, the real GPR data normally contain a variety of noises; therefore, a series of appropriate objective preprocessing and processing stages were designed in order to apply on real GPR images before deploying template matching algorithm. The applicability of the template matching algorithm on real data and validity of the estimated parameters were proved based on assessing the accuracy of the estimated geometrical parameters of respective pipes through GPR response versus the measured parameters. The proposed algorithm was designed in such a way that all steps of estimating geometrical parameters of buried cylindrical targets are automatically carried out.  相似文献   

Regional modeling of dust storm of February 8, 2015 in the southwest of Iran     

Mahmoud Ahmadi  AbbasAli DadashiRoudbari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(21):459

According to World Meteorological Organization report in 2015, the southwest of Iran has become one of the dust sources in the region. And the objective of this research is to study the dust storms originating in this region. For this purpose, based on the weather data of 14 stations, the dust storms of the region were investigated, and the dust storm of February 7, 2015, was selected due to its very high concentration of dust particles (66 times the normal values). For the analysis of source areas and storm paths, the FNL data was used. The regional models of Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre-Dust Regional Atmospheric Model 8b (DREAM 8b), Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model Barcelona Supercomputing Center (NMMB/BSC), and hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) were used to study and analyze the selected storm. The results showed that the dust event in February 8, 2016, has been the result of the polar front jet stream (PJF) caused by western immigrant system that had been over the Sahara in Africa, the deserts of Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and finally southwest of Iran in making the extreme dust event. According to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and point models of NAAPS, optical depth was very high. The DREAM 8b and NMMB/BSC models confirmed the impact of the local factors and closeness to the dust source regions. The backward tracking of the model with the HYSPLIT model showed three tracks transporting the dust particles to the region. This software also showed that the dust particles occupied an atmospheric tunnel of 1.5 km in diameter.  相似文献   

Applying an optimized proxy-based workflow for fast history matching     

Mojtaba Karimi  Ali Mortazavi  Mohammad Ahmadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(21):462

History matching is still one of the main challenging parts of reservoir study especially in giant brown oil fields with lots of wells. In these cases, history matching with conventional manual technique needs many runs and takes months to get a match. In this work, an innovative approach was suggested for fast history matching in a real brown field. The workflow was employed based on an optimized proxy model for history matching of a field consisting of 14 active wells with multiple responses (which are production rate and pressure data) in the south part of Iran. The main important features of the proposed algorithm were defining a proxy model which is response surface method in which 21 model parameters were incorporated based on cubic centered face method. The proxy model was then optimized by one of the most famous algorithms which is genetic algorithm. Proxy model was successfully performed using 256 samples leading into p- value of 0.531 and R ² of 0.91 dataset. As a result, the proposed workflow and algorithm showed good and acceptable results for history matching of studied real model.  相似文献   

End Bearing Capacity of Drilled Shafts in Sand: A Numerical Approach     

M. M. Ahmadi  M. Khabbazian 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2009,27(2):195-206

In this paper, a modeling procedure is carried out to numerically analyze the end bearing capacity of drilled shafts in sand. The Mohr–Coulomb elastic plastic constitutive law with stress dependent elastic parameters is used for all numerical analyses performed in this study. The numerical results are compared with the available experimental equations. It is seen that numerical results are in good agreement with experimental equations. The variation of the end bearing capacity of drilled shafts versus embedment depth is also studied. Numerical results show that with increase in pile embedment depth, the end bearing capacity increases. However, the rate of increase becomes smaller as the pile embedment depth increases. Also, numerical analyses show that, for equal settlement, the end bearing decreases with increase in the pile diameter. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to obtain the separate effect of each sand parameter on the end bearing capacity of drilled shafts, and the parameters that are most influential are identified.  相似文献   

Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four centuries by using dendroclimatology     

Gholami  V.  Ahmadi Jolandan  M.  Torkaman  J. 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1835-1850

Natural Hazards - Climate change is currently one of the most important environmental issues. Dendrochronology is frequently used to identify the climatic changes most closely associated with...  相似文献   

The Effects of Hydrophilic Polymer and Soil Salinity on Corn Growth in Sandy and Loamy Soils     

Soheyla Seyed Dorraji  Ahmad Golchin  Shervin Ahmadi 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2010,38(7):584-591

The interaction effects of different applied ratios of a hydrophilic polymer (Superab A200) (0, 0.2, 0.6% w/w) under various soil salinity levels (initial salinity, 4 and 8 ms/cm) were evaluated on available water content (AWC), biomass, and water use efficiency for corn grown in loamy sand and sandy clay loam soils. The results showed that the highest AWC was measured at the lowest soil salinity. The application of 0.6% w/w of the polymer at the lowest salinity level increased the AWC by 2.2 and 1.2 times greater than those of control in the loamy sand and sandy clay loam soils, respectively. The analysis of variance of data showed that the effect of salinity was significant on biomass and water use efficiency of corn in the loamy sand and sandy clay loam soils. The highest amounts of these traits were measured in soils with the lowest salinity level. Application of polymer at the rate of 0.6% in the loamy sand soil and at the rate of 0.2% in the sandy clay loam soil resulted in the highest aerial and root biomass and water use efficiency for corn. At these polymer rates the amounts of water use efficiency for corn were 2.6 and 1.7 times greater than those of control in the loamy sand and sandy clay loam soils, respectively. Thus, the use of hydrophilic polymer in soils especially in the sandy soils increases soil water holding capacity, yield, and water use efficiency of plant. On the other hand, decreases the negative effect of soil salinity on plant and helps for irrigation projects to succeed in arid and semi‐arid areas.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility analysis with a bivariate approach and GIS in Northern Iran   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Ataollah Kelarestaghi  Hassan Ahmadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2009,2(1):95-101

Globally, landslides cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries each year. A landslide susceptibility map describes areas where landslides are likely to occur in the future by correlating some of the principal factors that contribute to landslides with the past distribution of landslides. A case study is conducted in the mountainous northern Iran. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of the study area was prepared using bivariate method with the help of the geographic information system. Area density (bivariate) method was used to weight landslide-influencing data layers. An overlay analysis is carried out by evaluating the layers obtained according to their weight and the landslide susceptibility map is produced. The study area was classified into five hazard classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The percentage distribution of landslide susceptibility degrees was calculated. It was found that about 26% of the study area is classified as very high and high hazard classes.  相似文献   

Effects of pulse period of near‐field ground motions on the seismic demands of soil–MDOF structure systems using mathematical pulse models     

Faramarz Khoshnoudian  Ehsan Ahmadi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(11):1565-1582

In this paper, the effects of pulse period associated with near‐field ground motions on the seismic demands of soil–MDOF structure systems are investigated by using mathematical pulse models. Three non‐dimensional parameters are employed as the crucial parameters, which govern the responses of soil–structure systems: (1) non‐dimensional frequency as the structure‐to‐soil stiffness ratio; (2) aspect ratio of the superstructure; and (3) structural target ductility ratio. The soil beneath the superstructure is simulated on the basis of the Cone model concept. The superstructure is modeled as a nonlinear shear building. Interstory drift ratio is selected as the main engineering demand parameter for soil–structure systems. It is demonstrated that the contribution of higher modes to the response of soil–structure system depends on the pulse‐to‐interacting system period ratio instead of pulse‐to‐fixed‐base structure period ratio. Furthermore, results of the MDOF superstructures demonstrate that increasing structural target ductility ratio results in the first‐mode domination for both fixed‐base structure and soil–structure system. Additionally, increasing non‐dimensional frequency and aspect ratio of the superstructure respectively decrease and increase the structural responses. Moreover, comparison of the equivalent soil–SDOF structure system and the soil–MDOF structure system elucidates that higher‐mode effects are more significant, when soil–structure interaction is taken into account. In general, the effects of fling step and forward directivity pulses on activating higher modes of the superstructure are more sever in soil–structure systems, and in addition, the influences of forward directivity pulses are more considerable than fling step ones. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献