Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters     

Giovanni Dolif  Andre Engelbrecht  Alessandro Jatobá  Antônio José Dias da Silva  José Orlando Gomes  Marcos R. S. Borges  Carlos A. Nobre  Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1831-1847

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献   

A new multiscale scheme for computing statistical moments in single phase flow in heterogeneous porous media     

Marcio R. Borges  Márcio A. Murad  Felipe Pereira  Frederico Furtado 《Advances in water resources》2009

In this work we develop a new multiscale procedure to compute numerically the statistical moments of the stochastic variables which govern single phase flow in heterogeneous porous media. The technique explores the properties of the log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, characterized by power-law or exponential covariances, which shows invariance in its statistical structure upon a simultaneous change of the scale of observation and strength of heterogeneity. We construct a family of equivalent stochastic hydrodynamic variables satisfying the same flow equations at different scales and strengths of heterogeneity or correlation lengths. Within the new procedure the governing equations are solved in a scaled geology and the numerical results are mapped onto the original medium at coarser scales by a straightforward rescaling. The new procedure is implemented numerically within the Monte Carlo algorithm and also in conjunction with the discretization of the low-order effective equations derived from perturbation analysis. Numerical results obtained by the finite element method show the accuracy of the new procedure to approximated the two first moments of the pressure and velocity along with its potential in reducing drastically the computational cost involved in the numerical modeling of both power-law and exponential covariance functions.  相似文献   

New constraints on the HIMU mantle from neon and helium isotopic compositions of basalts from the Cook–Austral Islands     

Rita Parai  Sujoy Mukhopadhyay  John C. Lassiter 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(1-2):253-261

High ⁴He/³He ratios of 100 000 to 160 000 found at HIMU ocean islands (“high μ,” where μ is the U/Pb ratio) are usually attributed to the presence of recycled oceanic crust in the HIMU mantle source. However, significantly higher ⁴He/³He ratios are expected in recycled crust after residence in the mantle for periods greater than 1 Ga. In order to better understand the helium isotopic signatures in HIMU basalts, we have measured helium and neon isotopic compositions in a suite of geochemically well-characterized basalts from the Cook–Austral Islands. We observe ⁴He/³He ratios ranging from 56 000 to 141 000, suggesting the involvement of mantle reservoirs both more and less radiogenic than the mantle source for mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs). In addition, we find that the neon isotopic compositions of HIMU lavas extend from the MORB range to compositions less nucleogenic than MORBs. The Cook-Austral HIMU He–Ne isotopic compositions, along with Sr, Nd, Pb, and Os isotopic compositions, indicate that in addition to recycled crust, a relatively undegassed mantle end-member (e.g., FOZO) is involved in the genesis of these basalts. The association of relatively undegassed mantle material with recycled crust provides an explanation for the close geographical association between HIMU lavas and EM (enriched mantle)-type lavas from this island chain: EM-type signatures represent a higher mixing proportion of relatively undegassed mantle material. Mixing between recycled material and relatively undegassed mantle material may be a natural result of entrainment processes and convective stirring in deep mantle.  相似文献   

Time dependence of negative buoyancy and the subduction of continental lithosphere   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Giorgio Ranalli  Rita Pellegrini  Sergio D&#x;Offizi 《Journal of Geodynamics》2000,30(5)

The time evolution of negative buoyancy of a subducting slab is modelled from the beginning of subduction under various kinematic conditions (dip angle and subduction velocity). The calculations take into account the thermal and density effects of the variations of the thermophysical parameters with temperature and pressure, and of phase transitions. The magnitude of the negative buoyancy increases during subduction of oceanic lithosphere, up to values in the (2–4) × 10¹³ N m⁻¹ range when the tip of the slab reaches a depth of 600–700 km. If continental material arrives at the trench and is subducted, the downward buoyancy decreases by an amount proportional to the volume of the subducted continental crust. Assuming that subduction stops when the buoyancy becomes zero, and that delamination of the continental crust or slab breakoff do not occur, the maximum downdip length of the subductable continental crust is estimated as a function of the dip angle, subduction velocity and geometry of the margin. In most cases, subduction of continental material down to depths of 100–250 km is possible, and continental subduction can continue for times up to 10–15 Ma if the velocity is low. These estimates are not significantly affected by the hypothetical occurrence of a metastable olivine wedge within the slab, and could be lower bounds if the lower continental crust is mafic and transforms to eclogite.  相似文献   

The role of constraints on joint hypocentre determination in seismotectonic studies     

Rodolfo Console  Rita Di Giovambattista  Aldo Di Sanza  Paolo Favali   Giuseppe Smriglio 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,143(1):129-141

In this paper we show how the performance of the joint hypocentre determination (JHD) method can be improved, leading to reduced instability in cases close to singularity. The method has been extended by imposing a number of constraints introduced by other authors, and adding a new one. We tested the stability of the method and the relative advantages of the various constraints by simulating a geometrical space distribution of hypocentres recorded by a regional seismic network. We then applied this method to deep earthquakes that occurred in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea subduction zone and to the seismicity of the Northern Apennines, which is moderately deeper than the typical shallow seismicity of the Apennines. The results obtained from the analysis of synthetic data and actual earthquakes confirm that the JHD method produces less scatter in the hypocentral determinations with respect to the standard locations. The main conclusion of our study is that we can significantly reduce the systematic mislocations that result from applying JHD to very clustered seismicity if we introduce the appropriate set of constraints.  相似文献   

Effects of forestry on summertime low flows and physical fish habitat in snowmelt‐dominant headwater catchments of the Pacific Northwest     

Stefan Gronsdahl  R. Dan Moore  Jordan Rosenfeld  Rich McCleary  Rita Winkler 《水文研究》2019,33(25):3152-3168

Periods of summertime low flows are often critical for fish. This study quantified the impacts of forest clear‐cutting on summertime low flows and fish habitat and how they evolved through time in two snowmelt‐dominant headwater catchments in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada. A paired‐catchment analysis was applied to July–September water yield, the number of days each year with flow less than 10% of mean annual discharge, and daily streamflow for each calendar day. The postharvest time series were divided into treatment periods of approximately 6–10 years, which were analysed independently to evaluate how the effects of forestry changed through time. An instream flow assessment using a physical habitat simulation‐style approach was used to relate streamflow to the availability of physical habitat for resident rainbow trout. About two decades after the onset of logging and as the extent of logging increased to approximately 50% of the catchments, reductions in daily summertime low flows became more significant for the July–September yield (43%) and for the analysis by calendar day (11–68%). Reductions in summertime low flows were most pronounced in the catchment with the longest postharvest time series. On the basis of the temporal patterns of response, we hypothesize that the delayed reductions in late‐summer flow represent the combined effects of a persistent advance in snowmelt timing in combination with at least a partial recovery of transpiration and interception loss from the regenerating forests. These results indicate that asymptotic hydrological recovery as time progresses following logging is not suitable for understanding the impacts of forest harvesting on summertime low flows. Additionally, these reductions in streamflow corresponded to persistent decreases in modelled fish habitat availability that typically ranged from 20% to 50% during the summer low‐flow period in one of the catchments, suggesting that forest harvest may have substantial delayed effects on rearing salmonids in headwater streams.  相似文献   

An enhanced ensemble Kalman filter scheme incorporating model error in sequential coupling between flow and geomechanics     

Edison Caballero  Fernando A. Rochinha  Marcio Borges  Marcio A. Murad 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(2):482-500

In this work, we construct a new methodology for enhancing the predictive accuracy of sequential methods for coupling flow and geomechanics while preserving low computational cost. The new computational approach is developed within the framework of the fixed-stress split algorithm procedure in conjunction with data assimilation based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In this context, we identify the high-fidelity model with the two-way formulation where additional source term appears in the flow equation containing the time derivative of total mean stress. The iterative scheme is then interlaced with data assimilation steps, which also incorporate the modeling error inherent to the EnKF framework. Such a procedure gives rise to an “enhanced one-way formulation,” exhibiting substantial improvement in accuracy compared with the classical one-way method. The governing equations are discretized by mixed finite elements, and numerical simulation of a 2D slab problem between injection and production wells illustrate the tremendous achievement of the method proposed herein.  相似文献   

The effect of an arctic polynya on the Northern Hemisphere mean circulation and eddy regime: a numerical experiment     

Rita Glowienka-Hense  Andreas Hense 《Climate Dynamics》1992,7(3):155-163

The feedback of an arctic polynya, which is a large ice-free zone within the sea ice, on the hemispheric climate is studied with the ECMWF T21 GCM. For this purpose a control and an anomaly integration, in which a polynya was introduced in the Kara Sea, are compared. As the GCM, like the real atmosphere, shows a high level of low frequency variability, the mean response to the changed boundary conditions is obscured by internal noise. The necessary significance analyses are thus performed to enhance the signal-tonoise ratio within the framework of an a priori chosen guess pattern and a multivariate test statistic. The sensible and latent heat fluxes increased above the polynya, which resulted in a warming of the lower troposphere above and near the polynya. No statistically significant local or global sea-level pressure changes are associated with this heating. However we find a significant change of hemispheric extent of the geopotential fields at 300 hPa, if we use as guess patterns the eigenmodes of the barotropic vorticity equation. The different mean flow field is accompanied by significant changes of the synoptic transient eddy field. We find a significant variation in the barotropic and baroclinic forcing of the mean flow by the eddies, a change in the location and intensity of the storm tracks and in the conversion between eddy available and eddy kinetic energy. The additional heat flux from the polynya results in a reduction of the meridional heat flux by the synoptic eddies on the western Atlantic.  相似文献   

A multi-disciplinary study of deformation of the basaltic cover over fine-grained valley fills: a case study from Eastern Sardinia,Italy     

Rita Deiana  Iginio Dieni  Francesco Massari  Maria Teresa Perri  Matteo Rossi  Alessandro Brovelli 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(4):1245-1255

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Tithonian age of dinosaur fossils in central Patagonian,Chile: U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology     

Manuel Suárez  Rita De La Cruz  Mark Fanning  Fernando Novas  Leonardo Salgado 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(8):2273-2284

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