The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model     

Helen Crowley  Julian J. Bommer  Rui Pinho  Juliet Bird 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(14):1653-1685

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Detection and 2d modelling of cavities using pole–dipole array     

Fernando A. Monteiro Santos  António R. Andrade Afonso 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(1):108-116

The resistivity method is often used in cave prospecting. In this paper the pole–dipole array ability to detect cavities at different depths and with different water contents is investigated. The research was performed using analogical and numerical modelling. According to the results, empty caves at a depth less than four times its diameter can be easily detected. The ability of the pole–dipole array to detect water-filled caves reaches a minimum at filling percentages of 30–50%. Overburden effects research shows that low resistivity overburden reduces the resolution capability of the array. This study shows that equivalent results can be obtained by modelling the empty caves as infinite resistivity bodies or, alternatively, as very high resistivity ones. The analysis of field data acquired in the Maciço Calcário Estremenho (Portugal) shows the practical importance of the pole–dipole array in cavities prospecting.  相似文献   

An adaptive finite element model for wellbore breakout simulation     

Diogo L. Cecílio  Philippe R. B. Devloo  Sônia M. Gomes  Erick S.R. Santos 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(4):814-828

A finite element formulation is proposed and implemented for analysing the stability of excavated wells using the DiMaggio-Sandler constitutive elastoplastic model with a typical carbonate reservoir configuration. The quality of the finite element approximation is ensured by applying smooth curved elements adapted to the wellbore geometry, and h − p adaptive finite element meshes in the plastic zone. General purpose procedures are defined to transfer the elastoplastic deformation history to newly created integration points. A breakout damage criterion is proposed based on the second invariant of the deviatoric plastic deformation tensor. This damage criterion is used to apply a mesh movement algorithm to represent material collapse. The automatic successive application of the breakout damage criterion results in elliptical realistically looking geometries obtained in experiments reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Heaving modes in the world oceans     

Rui Xin Huang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3563-3591

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Temporal variation of soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland during the growth stages of maize (Zea mays L.)     

Rui Ma  Zicheng Zheng  Tingxuan Li  Shuqin He  Xizhou Zhang  Yongdong Wang  Huagang Huang  Daihua Ye 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14353

Maize growth has great effects on soil properties and thus likely induces the changes in soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland. However, temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize is still unclear in the mountainous yellow soil area where maize is the dominant crop. In this study, four maize plots (MP) and four bare land plots (CK) were conducted to investigate soil erosion resistance, and multiple indicators of soil erosion resistance were measured including the total soil anti-scourability (TAS), mean weight diameter (MWD), soil erodibility K factor and soil shear strength (SH). A comprehensive soil erosion resistance index (CSERI) was employed to quantify the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize (seedling stage, SS; jointing stage, JS; tasselling stage, TS; maturing stage, MS). The results showed that TAS, MWD, SH increased significantly with maize growth and SH decreased when at MS. But K factor decreased significantly over time. CSERI increased significantly during the growth stages of maize and the CSERI of JS, TS, MS increased on average by 74.72, 180.68 and 234.57% than that of SS. Compared to CK, CSERI of MP increased by 49.90, 66.82, 55.60 and 38.61% during the growth stages of maize. The temporal variation of soil erosion resistance was closely related to the changes in maize cover, maize roots and soil organic carbon. The findings demonstrated that it is necessary to consider the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance in the mountainous yellow soil area.  相似文献   

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal          下载免费PDF全文

Claudia Carvalho‐Santos  João Pedro Nunes  António T. Monteiro  Lars Hein  João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the development of a coupled regional climate–vegetation model RCM–CLM–CN–DV and its validation in Tropical Africa     

Guiling Wang  Miao Yu  Jeremy S. Pal  Rui Mei  Gordon B. Bonan  Samuel Levis  Peter E. Thornton 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):515-539

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Lake sedimentary processes and vegetation changes over the last 45k cal a bp in the uplands of south-eastern Amazonia     

José Tasso Felix Guimarães  Prafulla Kumar Sahoo  Mariana Maha Jana Costa De Figueiredo  Karen da Silva Lopes  Markus Gastauer  Silvio Junio Ramos  Cecilio Frois Caldeira  Pedro Walfir M. Souza-Filho  Luiza Santos Reis  Marcio Sousa Da Silva  Paulo Rogenes Pontes  Renato Oliveira Da Silva Junior  Tarcísio Magevski Rodrigues 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(2):255-272

This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions.  相似文献   

重要性权值的驾车导航POI表达规则     

方成  江南  刘锐 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(6):654-658

在导航电子地图中,针对驾车任务的POI自适应表达是提高导航电子地图信息传输效率的关键。针对这一问题,提出了基于重要性权值的驾车导航POI表达规则。首先,分析了POI重要性权值的影响因素;其次,从影响因素出发,研究了基于权值的POI规则表达的各规则项;最后,设计了POI自适应表达规则库,并在嵌入了数据处理规则库的绘图软件上进行了技术实现。试验结果表明,利用基于权值的POI表达规则进行地图表达,可以提高地图内容的层次性与清晰性,优化驾车导航服务。  相似文献   

新元古代扬子—华夏陆块拼合带：来自华南重磁异常的启示   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郭良辉  高锐  张季生  熊小松 《地质科学》2016,(3):682-693

扬子和华夏两大陆块是构成华南大陆的最基本单元, 但它们的拼合带位置（尤其是西延位置）是人们长期争论的焦点。本文以国家专项“深部探测技术与实验研究”探测得到的深反射地震剖面以及华南大陆的地质资料为约束, 对重、 磁异常作地壳构造融合解译, 追踪扬子—华夏陆块拼合带。由于华南大陆广泛发育具有剩磁多期、 多类的火山—侵入岩, 本文将磁异常换算为受剩磁影响小的解析信号作构造解译, 减小剩磁造成的地质解释偏差。研究认为, 扬子与华夏两陆块的拼合带东界为鹰潭—萍乡—衡阳—贺州—北海一线, 而西界为宜昌—张家界—铜仁—都匀—百色一线, 鹰潭以东和以北的拼合带位置因为受大规模岩浆岩的干扰而不清。  相似文献