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121.
122.
The climate community has made significant progress in observing, understanding and predicting El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the last 30 years. In spite of that, unresolved questions still remain, including ENSO diversity and extreme events, decadal modulation, predictability, teleconnection, and the interaction of ENSO with other climate phenomena. In particular, the existence of a different type of El Niño from the conventional El Niño has been proposed. This type of El Niño has occurred more frequently during the recent decades and received a great attention in the climate community. This review provides recent progresses on dynamics, decadal variability and future projection of El Niño, with a focus on the two types of El Niño.  相似文献   
123.
ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal “see-saw” (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Niño characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Niño statistics (or “flavour”) from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the “conventional” eastern Pacific El Niño relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Niño (or Modoki El Niño) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Niño less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Niño more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific.  相似文献   
124.
We examine the meteorological responses due to the probable eruption of Mt. Baekdu using an off-line Climate-Chemistry model that is composed of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem). Using the aerosol dataset from the GEOS-Chem driven by GEOS-5 meteorology, experiment and control simulations of the climate model are performed and their meteorological differences between the two simulations are analyzed. The magnitudes of volcanic eruption and column injection height were presumably set to 1/200 of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and 9 km, respectively. Significant temperature drop in the lower troposphere (850 hPa), which is mainly due to a direct effect of prescribed volcanic aerosols from Mt. Baekdu, has been simulated up to about ?4 K. The upper atmosphere (150 hPa) right above the volcano, however, shows significant warming due to the absorption of the infrared radiation by volcanic aerosols. As a result of the volcanic eruption in the climate model, wave-like patterns are shown in both the geopotential height and horizontal wind. The changes in the lower atmospheric temperature are well associated with the modification of the atmospheric circulation through the hydrostatic balance. In spite of limitations in our current simulations due to several underlying assumptions, our results could give a clue to understanding the meteorological impacts from Mt. Baekdu eruptions that are currently attracting considerable public attention.  相似文献   
125.
Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available.  相似文献   
126.
The dynamics of galactic systems with central binary black holes is studied. The model is a modification from the restricted three body problem, in which a galactic potential is added as an external potential. Considering the case with an equal mass binary black holes, the conditions of existence of equilibrium points, including Lagrange Points and additional new equilibrium points, i.e. Jiang-Yeh Points, are investigated. A critical mass is discovered to be fundamentally important. That is, Jiang-Yeh Points exist if and only if the galactic mass is larger than the critical mass. The stability analysis is performed for all equilibrium points. The results that Jiang-Yeh Points are unstable could lead to the core formation in the centers of galaxies.  相似文献   
127.
Abstract. A fully documented Galerkin finite-element FORTRAN program is presented for solving the one-dimensional, transient flow equation in unsaturated porous media. Material balance error summaries are presented to demonstrate accuracy of the numerical scheme. Comparison of our simulated results with other existing numerical solutions using the Galerkin scheme provided excellent agreement.  相似文献   
128.
Following Papadakis (2005)'s numerical exploration of the Chermnykh's problem, we here study a Chermnykh-like problem motivated by the astrophysical applications. We find that both the equilibrium points and solution curves become quite different from the ones of the classical planar restricted three-body problem. In addition to the usual Lagrangian points, there are new equilibrium points in our system. We also calculate the Lyapunov Exponents for some example orbits. We conclude that it seems there are more chaotic orbits for the system when there is a belt to interact with.  相似文献   
129.
Acta Meteorologica Sinica (AMS) is an academic quarterly journal sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society(CMS). Sixty-one years have elapsed since it started publication in Chinese in 19253.As a first-rate advanced academic journal,it has played an important role in meteorological circles and has continually given impetus to the advances of atmospheric sciences.  相似文献   
130.
Motivated by Papadakis (2005a, b), we study a Chermnykh-like problem, in which an additional gravitational potential from the belt is included. In addition to the usual five equilibrium points (three collinear and two triangular points), there are some new equilibrium points for this system. We studied the conditions for the existence of these new equilibrium points both analytically and numerically.  相似文献   
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