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31.
Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Jose A. Marengo Tercio Ambrizzi Rosmeri P. da Rocha Lincoln M. Alves Santiago V. Cuadra Maria C. Valverde Roger R. Torres Daniel C. Santos Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097
Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as
part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models
RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing
present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes
in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent
pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification
and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter
is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and
HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and
southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern
Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models
show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially
in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between
2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes
in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported
elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for
some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for
other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil. 相似文献
32.
Santiago Belda Robert Heinkelmann José M. Ferrándiz Tobias Nilsson Harald Schuh 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(2):135-149
Precise transformation between the celestial reference frames (CRF) and terrestrial reference frames (TRF) is needed for many purposes in Earth and space sciences. According to the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) recommendations, the accuracy of positions and stability of reference frames should reach 1 mm and 0.1 mm year\(^{-1}\), and thus, the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) should be estimated with similar accuracy. Different realizations of TRFs, based on the combination of solutions from four different space geodetic techniques, and CRFs, based on a single technique only (VLBI, Very Long Baseline Interferometry), might cause a slow degradation of the consistency among EOP, CRFs, and TRFs (e.g., because of differences in geometry, orientation and scale) and a misalignment of the current conventional EOP series, IERS 08 C04. We empirically assess the consistency among the conventional reference frames and EOP by analyzing the record of VLBI sessions since 1990 with varied settings to reflect the impact of changing frames or other processing strategies on the EOP estimates. Our tests show that the EOP estimates are insensitive to CRF changes, but sensitive to TRF variations and unmodeled geophysical signals at the GGOS level. The differences between the conventional IERS 08 C04 and other EOP series computed with distinct TRF settings exhibit biases and even non-negligible trends in the cases where no differential rotations should appear, e.g., a drift of about 20 \(\upmu \)as year\(^{-1 }\)in \(y_{\mathrm{pol }}\) when the VLBI-only frame VTRF2008 is used. Likewise, different strategies on station position modeling originate scatters larger than 150 \(\upmu \)as in the terrestrial pole coordinates. 相似文献
33.
Santiago Hernández-León Lutz Postel Javier Arístegui May Gómez María Fernanda Montero Santiago Torres Carlos Almeida Eugen Kühner Ullrich Brenning Eberhard Hagen 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(4):471-482
Plankton biomass and indices of metabolism and growth [electron transport system (ETS), glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and aspartate transcarbamylase (ATC) activities] were studied over a 2,800 km east-west section of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean (21°N) in <200, 200–500 and >;500 µm size classes. On the large-scale, zooplankton (>;200 µm) enzymatic activities increased westward in the study section, where large cyanobacteria chains (Trichodesmium spp.) were observed. Parallel to it, an increase in medium calanoids (1–2 mm length) was observed towards the western part of the transect, whereas small calanoids (<1 mm) were dominant throughout the boundary area of the subtropical gyre. Microplankton ETS and mesoplankton ETS and ATC activities seemed to match the wave length of low frequency waves. Our results suggest that such waves are related to the observed enhancement of metabolic activity of micro- and mesoplankton. The large-scale and mesoscale variability observed give evidence of the inadequacy of assuming a steady-state picture of the euphotic zone of tropical and subtropical waters. 相似文献
34.
F. Javier Torrijo Julio Garzón-Roca Santiago Alija Mário Quinta-Ferreira 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(19):658
This paper presents an assessment on the use of dynamic compaction as a ground improvement technique in a port’s hydraulic fill in the new southern dock of Sagunto’s Harbor near Valencia (Spain). Soil behavior improvement was monitored by several in situ techniques such as boreholes with SPTs, DPSH, CPTU and CSWS geophysical tests. A total energy between 2188 and 3125 kN/m2 (depending the area) was applied to the hydraulic fill by the dynamic compaction procedure. In situ techniques led to evaluate dynamic compaction efficiency, as well as controlling ground modifications that might cause potential damages to adjacent buildings. The dynamic compaction carried out was capable of fulfilling requirements established to use the area, that is, an average deformability modulus (E′) of 30 MPa with a minimum of 20 MPa, in a depth of 10 m. Moreover, dynamic compaction increased hydraulic fill relative density by about 75%. 相似文献
35.
Marine populations in Europe are in decline due to the unsuccessful results of the Common Fisheries Policy. By combining data of scientific recommendations from ICES, TACs approved and reported landings with an age-structured model, the objectives of this paper are to investigate the level of compliance of the TAC regulation, and the level of enforcement and its economic impact on fishery resources. The results presented here suggest that while there does not exist a regular pattern between TAC proposal and TAC approved, there is a clear pattern between TAC approved and reported landings. As a consequence, there is a regular lack of enforcement at national fisheries authority level. The paper also presents results of the recovery plans for the Southern hake and the Atlantic cod fisheries as case studies to illustrate the level of enforcement based on collusion between national fisheries advisers and industry. The results from both cases studies analyzed here indicate that drastic solutions could generate positive results for the recovery of the stocks, but perhaps they are not always the best measure in fisheries management due to the high economic losses for fishermen and social effects on coastal communities in the short and medium term. Finally, this work demonstrates that if the recovery plans had been implemented, the net present profits for both fisheries would have increased over time. 相似文献
36.
Carlos Sainz Ismael Fuente Luis Quindós Jose Luis Gutierrez Jose Luis Arteche Luis Santiago Quindós 《Acta Geophysica》2010,58(5):957-962
People working with ionising radiation are receiving radiation coming from artificial and natural sources. In Spain, as in
many other countries, there is a serious control by the national authorities, Spanish Nuclear Safety Council, of the dose
the workers receive from artificial sources. However, until the publication of the European Basic Safety Standards Directive,
96/29/EURATOM, the old criteria referring to the “above natural background” were widely used. This directive was incorporated
to the Spanish legislation in July 2001 (BOE 178); in its Title VII it recommends to evaluate the dose coming from natural
sources and take it into account for establishing the safety criteria. It is noteworthy to assess the natural doses received
at homes and the dose received by workers of radioactive installations subject to regulations, and to compare the two results.
The social and economical implications of the results derived can be important in the practical application of the recommendations
included in the above-mentioned BOE 178 Directive. 相似文献
37.
David Sanz Juan José Gómez-Alday Santiago Castaño Angel Moratalla Jorge De las Heras Pedro Emilio Martínez-Alfaro 《Hydrogeology Journal》2009,17(6):1375-1391
The Mancha Oriental System (MOS) has a surface area of 7,260 km2, making it one of the largest carbonate aquifer systems in Spain. The system sustains about 1,000 km2 of irrigated crops and supplies groundwater to 275,000 inhabitants. The economic transformation brought about by the development of extensive irrigated cropland has led to a water-balance disequilibrium of about 75 million m3/year. This input–output deficit has negative consequences in the quantity and quality of the available resources, in the river–aquifer relationship, and in the associated ecosystems as well. To understand the hydrogeological behaviour of the system, it is necessary to design a conceptual model. Further, the conceptualisation of a groundwater flow system is a requirement of the European Water Framework Directive for the characterisation of groundwater bodies. The robustness of the conceptual model depends heavily on the user capability of representing the real system. In this work, a multidisciplinary approach has been used to represent the three-dimensional geological framework and the groundwater flow conceptualisation of the MOS. Data management and three-dimensional visualisation have been carried out by means of geographical information system (GIS) tools and software for contouring and three-dimensional surface mapping. 相似文献
38.
ABSTRACTA parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events. 相似文献
39.
Junsheng Nie Brian K. Horton Joel E. Saylor Andrés Mora Maria Mange Carmala N. Garzione Asish Basu Christopher J. Moreno Victor Caballero Mauricio Parra 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):111-126
Sediment provenance analysis remains a powerful method for testing hypotheses on the temporal and spatial evolution of uplifted source regions, but issues such as recycling, nonunique sources, and pre- and post-depositional modifications may complicate interpretation of results from individual provenance techniques. Convergent retroarc systems commonly contain sediment sources that are sufficiently diverse (continental magmatic arc, fold–thrust belt, and stable craton) to enable explicit provenance assessments. In this paper, we combine detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology, heavy mineral identification, Nd isotopic analyses, conventional sandstone petrography, and paleocurrent measurements to reconstruct the clastic provenance history of a long-lived sedimentary basin now exposed in an intermontane zone of the northern Andean hinterland of Colombia. The Middle Magdalena Valley basin, situated between the Central Cordillera and Eastern Cordillera, contains a 5–10 km-thick succession of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary fill. The integrated techniques show a pronounced change in provenance during the Paleocene transition from the lower to upper Lisama Formation. We interpret this as a shift from an eastern cratonic source to a western Andean source composed of magmatic-arc rocks uplifted during initial shortening of the Central Cordillera. The appearance of detrital chloritoid and a shift to more negative εNd(t=0) values in middle Eocene strata of the middle La Paz Formation are attributed to shortening-related exhumation of a continental basement block (La Cira–Infantas paleohigh), now buried, along the axis of the Magdalena Valley. The diverse provenance proxies also show distinct changes during middle to late Eocene deposition of the Esmeraldas Formation that likely reflect initial rock uplift and exhumation of the fold–thrust belt defining the Eastern Cordillera. Upsection, detrital zircon U–Pb ages and heavy mineral assemblages for Oligocene and younger clastic deposits indicate that the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of the Eastern Cordillera was recycled during continued Cenozoic shortening. Our multidisciplinary provenance study refines the tectonic history of the Colombian Andes and demonstrates that uncertainties related to sediment recycling, nonunique sources, source heterogeneity, and climate in interpreting provenance data can be minimized via an integrated approach. 相似文献
40.
Adapting a texture synthesis algorithm for conditional multiple point geostatistical simulation 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
��lvaro Parra Juli��n M. Ortiz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(8):1101-1111
Computer vision provides several tools for analyzing and simulating textures. The principles of these techniques are similar
to those in multiple-point geostatistics, namely, the reproduction of patterns and consistency in the results from a perceptual
point of view, thus, ensuring the reproduction of long range connectivity. The only difference between these techniques and
geostatistical simulation accounting for multiple-point statistics is that conditioning is not an issue in computer vision.
We present a solution to the problem of conditioning simulated fields while simultaneously honoring multiple-point (pattern)
statistics. The proposal is based on a texture synthesis algorithm where a fixed search (causal) pattern is used. Conditioning
is achieved by adding a non-causal search neighborhood that modifies the conditional distribution from which the simulated
category is drawn, depending on the conditioning information. Results show an excellent reproduction of the features from
the training image, while respecting the conditioning information. Some issues related to the data structure and to the computer
efficiency are discussed. 相似文献