Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval     

Federico Murrone  Fabio Rossi  Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.  相似文献   

The Theis Solution in Heterogeneous Aquifers   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sergio E. Serrano 《Ground water》1997,35(3):463-467

  相似文献   

Variographic analysis of tropical forest cover from multi-scale remotely sensed imagery     

Sergio Colombo  Mario Chica-Olmo  Francisco Abarca  Hugh Eva 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2004,58(5-6):330-341

Tropical forest mapping is one of the major environmental concerns at global and regional scales in which remote sensing techniques are firmly involved. This study examines the use of the variogram function to analyse forest cover fragmentation at different image scales. Two main aspects are considered here: (1) analysis of the spatial variability structure of the forest cover observed at three different scales using fine, medium and coarse spatial resolution images; and (2) the study of the relationship between rescaled images from the finest spatial resolution and those of the medium and coarse spatial resolutions. Both aspects are analysed using the variogram function as a basic tool to calculate and interpret the spatial variability of the forest cover. An example is presented for a Brazilian tropical forest zone using satellite images of different spatial resolutions acquired by Landsat TM (30 m), Resurs MSU (160 m) and ERS ATSR (1000 m). The results of this study contribute to establishing a suitable spatial resolution of remotely sensed data for tropical forest cover monitoring.  相似文献   

U–Pb geochronology of the southern Brasília belt (SE-Brazil): sedimentary provenance, Neoproterozoic orogeny and assembly of West Gondwana     

Claudio M. Valeriano  Nuno Machado  Antonio Simonetti  Claudia S. Valladares  Hildor J. Seer  Luiz Sergio A. Simes 《Precambrian Research》2004,130(1-4):27-55

The Brasília belt borders the western margin of the São Francisco Craton and records the history of ocean opening and closing related to the formation of West Gondwana. This study reports new U–Pb data from the southern sector of the belt in order to provide temporal limits for the deposition and ages of provenance of sediments accumulated in passive margin successions around the south and southwestern margins of the São Francisco Craton, and date the orogenic events leading to the amalgamation of West Gondwana.Ages of detrital zircons (by ID–TIMS and LA-MC-ICPMS) were obtained from metasedimentary units of the passive margin of the São Francisco Craton from the main tectonic domains of the belt: the internal allochthons (Araxá Group in the Áraxá and Passos Nappes), the external allochthons (Canastra Group, Serra da Boa Esperança Metasedimentary Sequence and Andrelândia Group) and the autochthonous or Cratonic Domain (Andrelândia Group). The patterns of provenance ages for these units are uniform and are characterised as follows: Archean–Paleoproterozoic ages (3.4–3.3, 3.1–2.7, and 2.5–2.4 Ga); Paleoproterozoic ages attributed to the Transamazonian event (2.3–1.9 Ga, with a peak at ca. 2.15 Ga) and to the ca. 1.75 Ga Espinhaço rifting of the São Francisco Craton; ages between 1.6 and 1.2 Ga, with a peak at 1.3 Ga, revealing an unexpected variety of Mesoproterozoic sources, still undetected in the São Francisco Craton; and ages between 0.9 and 1.0 Ga related to the rifting event that led to the individualisation of the São Francisco paleo-continent and formation of its passive margins. An amphibolite intercalation in the Araxá Group yields a rutile age of ca. 0.9 Ga and documents the occurrence of mafic magmatism coeval with sedimentation in the marginal basin.Detrital zircons from the autochthonous and parautochthonous Andrelândia Group, deposited on the southern margin of the São Francisco Craton, yielded a provenance pattern similar to that of the allochthonous units. This result implies that 1.6–1.2 Ga source rocks must be present in the São Francisco Craton. They could be located either in the cratonic area, which is mostly covered by the Neoproterozoic epicontinental deposits of the Bambuí Group, or in the outer paleo-continental margin, buried under the allochthonous units of the Brasília belt.Crustal melting and generation of syntectonic crustal granites and migmatisation at ca. 630 Ma mark the orogenic event that started with westward subduction of the São Francisco plate and ended with continental collision against the Paraná block (and Goiás terrane). Continuing collision led to the exhumation and cooling of the Araxá and Passos metamorphic nappes, as indicated by monazite ages of ca. 605 Ma and mark the final stages of tectonometamorphic activity in the southern Brasília belt.Whilst continent–continent collision was proceeding on the western margin of the São Francisco Craton along the southern Brasília belt, eastward subduction in the East was generating the 634–599 Ma Rio Negro magmatic arc which collided with the eastern São Francisco margin at 595–560 Ma, much later than in the Brasília belt. Thus, the tectonic effects of the Ribeira belt reached the southernmost sector of the Brasília belt creating a zone of superposition. The thermal front of this event affected the proximal Andrelândia Group at ca. 588 Ma, as indicated by monazite age.The participation of the Amazonian craton in the assembly of western Gondwana occurred at 545–500 Ma in the Paraguay belt and ca. 500 Ma in the Araguaia belt. This, together with the results presented in this work lead to the conclusion that the collision between the Paraná block and Goiás terrane with the São Francisco Craton along the Brasília belt preceded the accretion of the Amazonian craton by 50–100 million years.  相似文献   

Zero-offset P–S energy in horizontally layered media     

Fredy A.V. Artola  Ricardo Leiderman  Sergio A.B. Fontoura 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(5):717-721

The existence of non‐zero reflectivity for zero‐offset PS waves in horizontally layered media is discussed. Field measurements have suggested the occurrence of this phenomenon. We show that, in some cases, if anisotropy is considered in the problem, this reflectivity can be predicted. By using an approximated formulation to determine the coefficient of reflection in arbitrarily anisotropic media, it is clear that, for some elastic arrangements of the subsurface, reflected energy is associated with the converted wave resulting from normal P‐wave incidence.  相似文献   

Estimation of gas-hydrate concentration and free-gas saturation at the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin     

José M. Carcione  Davide Gei  Giuliana Rossi  Gianni Madrussani 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(6):803-810

We estimate the concentration of gas hydrate and free gas at an area located to the north of the Knipovich Ridge (western Svalbard margin). The method is based on P-wave velocities computed by reflection tomography applied to multicomponent ocean-bottom seismometer data. The tomographic velocity field is fitted to theoretical velocities obtained from a poro-elastic model based on a Biot-type approach (the interaction between the rock frame, gas hydrate and fluid is modelled from first physical principles). We obtain average hydrate concentrations of 7% and maximum free-gas saturations of 0.4% and 9%, depending on the saturation model.  相似文献   

Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

Pierluigi Furcolo  Anna Pelosi  Fabio Rossi 《水文研究》2016,30(9):1342-1353

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Natural highways for end-of-life solutions in the LEO region     

Elisa Maria Alessi  Giulia Schettino  Alessandro Rossi  Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(5):34

We present the main findings of a dynamical mapping performed in the Low Earth Orbit region. The results were obtained by propagating an extended grid of initial conditions, considering two different epochs and area-to-mass ratios, by means of a singly averaged numerical propagator. It turns out that dynamical resonances associated with high-degree geopotential harmonics, lunisolar perturbations and Solar radiation pressure can open natural deorbiting highways. For area-to-mass ratios typical of the orbiting intact objects, these corridors can be exploited only in combination with the action exerted by the atmospheric drag. For satellites equipped with an area augmentation device, we show the boundary of application of the drag, and where the Solar radiation pressure can be exploited.  相似文献   

Late‐glacial to Holocene depositional architecture of the Ombrone palaeovalley system (Southern Tuscany,Italy): Sea‐level,climate and local control in valley‐fill variability          下载免费PDF全文

Anna Breda  Alessandro Amorosi  Veronica Rossi  Fabio Fusco 《Sedimentology》2016,63(5):1124-1148

The Ombrone palaeovalley was incised during the last glacial sea‐level fall and was infilled during the subsequent Late‐glacial to Holocene transgression. A detailed sedimentological and stratigraphic study of two cores along the palaeovalley axis led to reconstruction of the post‐Last Glacial Maximum valley‐fill history. Stratigraphic correlations show remarkable similarity in the Late‐glacial to early‐Holocene succession, but discrepancy in the Holocene portion of the valley fill. Above the palaeovalley floor, about 60 m below sea‐level, Late‐glacial sedimentation is recorded by an unusually thick alluvial succession dated back to ca 18 cal kyr bp . The Holocene onset was followed by the retrogradational shift from alluvial to coastal facies. In seaward core OM1, the transition from inner to outer estuarine environments marks the maximum deepening of the system. By comparison, in landward core OM2, the emplacement of estuarine conditions was interrupted by renewed continental sedimentation. Swamp to lacustrine facies, stratigraphically equivalent to the fully estuarine facies of core OM1, represent the proximal expression of the maximum flooding zone. This succession reflects location in a confined segment of the valley, just landward of the confluence with a tributary valley. It is likely that sudden sediment input from the tributary produced a topographic threshold, damming the main valley course and isolating its landward segment from the sea. The seaward portion of the Ombrone palaeovalley presents the typical estuarine backfilling succession of allogenically controlled incised valleys. In contrast, in the landward portion of the system, local dynamics completely overwhelmed the sea‐level signal, following marine ingression. This study highlights the complexity of palaeovalley systems, where local morphologies, changes in catchment areas, drainage systems and tributary valleys may produce facies patterns significantly different from the general stratigraphic organization depicted by traditional sequence‐stratigraphic models.  相似文献   

A Criterion for Brittle Failure of Rocks Using the Theory of Critical Distances     

Jorge Castro  Sergio Cicero  César Sagaseta 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(1):63-77

This paper presents a new analytical criterion for brittle failure of rocks and heavily over-consolidated soils. Griffith’s model of a randomly oriented defect under a biaxial stress state is used to keep the criterion simple. The Griffith’s criterion is improved because the maximum tensile strength is not evaluated at the boundary of the defect but at a certain distance from the boundary, known as half of the critical distance. This fracture criterion is known as the point method, and is part of the theory of critical distances, which is utilised in fracture mechanics. The proposed failure criterion has two parameters: the inherent tensile strength, σ ₀, and the ratio of the half-length of the initial crack/flaw to the critical distance, a/L. These parameters are difficult to measure but they may be correlated with the uniaxial compressive and tensile strengths, σ _c and σ _t. The proposed criterion is able to reproduce the common range of strength ratios for rocks and heavily overconsolidated soils (σ _c/σ _t = 3–50) and the influence of several microstructural rock properties, such as texture and porosity. Good agreement with laboratory tests reported in the literature is found for tensile and low-confining stresses.  相似文献