Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System     

Yu-Li Wang  Liang-Cheng Chang  Fei Liu  Yen-Te Ho  Tzu Bin Wang  Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh  Jui-Pin Tsai 《Ground water》2022,60(4):518-529

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.  相似文献   

On a novel approach to forecast sparse rare events: applications to Parkfield earthquake prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ho  Chih-Hsiang  Bhaduri  Moinak 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):669-699

Natural Hazards - Rare events are plentiful in nature and most of them have devastating consequences on human lives and property. Modeling such events is intrinsically challenging due to their very...  相似文献   

Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hee-Jeong Baek  Johan Lee  Hyo-Shin Lee  Yu-Kyung Hyun  ChunHo Cho  Won-Tae Kwon  Charline Marzin  Sun-Yeong Gan  Min-Ji Kim  Da-Hee Choi  Jonghwa Lee  Jaeho Lee  Kyung-On Boo  Hyun-Suk Kang  Young-Hwa Byun 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(5):603-618

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.  相似文献   

Potential impacts of northeastern Eurasian snow cover on generation of dust storms in northwestern China during spring     

Yun Gon Lee  Chang-Hoi Ho  Jhoon Kim  Jinwon Kim 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):721-733

The effects of the northeastern Eurasian snow cover on the frequency of spring dust storms in northwestern China have been examined for the period 1979–2007. Averaged over all 43 stations in northwestern China, a statistically significant relationship has been found between dust-storm frequency (DSF) and Eurasian snow-water equivalent (SWE) during spring: mean DSF of 7.4 and 3.3 days for years of high- and low SWE, respectively. Further analyses reveal that positive SWE anomalies enhance the meridional gradients of the lower tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights, thereby strengthening westerly jets and zonal wind shear over northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China, the regions of major dust sources. The anomalous atmospheric circulation corresponding to the Eurasian SWE anomalies either reinforces or weakens atmospheric baroclinicity and cyclogenesis, according to the sign of the anomaly, to affect the spring DSF. This study suggests that Eurasian SWE anomalies can be an influential factor of spring DSF in northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China.  相似文献   

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chun Kit Ho  Ed Hawkins  Len Shaffrey  Fiona M. Underwood 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):917-935

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Statistical approach to determine the salinized ground water flow path and hydrogeochemical features around the underground LPG cavern,Korea     

Jeongho Lee  Ji‐Hoon Kim  Hun‐Mi Kim  Ho‐Wan Chang 《水文研究》2007,21(26):3615-3626

The ground water flow path of the coastal area in the Yellow Sea, Korea, was interpreted using both the cross‐correlation analysis of hydraulic properties and the principal component analysis (PCA) of ground water chemistry. Data was obtained from observation wells in the underground liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cavern constructed in the coastal area of Pyeongtaek. Cross‐correlation results showed that the operating pressure became more influenced on artificial factors for the variation of the groundwater level of the study area (45–66% of correlation coefficient) even though its affecting area was limited to the region with fractures or faults, and also showed that the delay time from the variation of operating pressure to the fluctuation of ground water level were relatively long periods (28–31 days). Three hydrogeochemical events (encrusted cement dissolution, host rock dissolution, and seawater intrusion), which were dominantly influenced on ground water quality, could be induced from the result of PCA. Quantitative evaluation for these events using the mixed equation with principal component scores suggest that the dissolution of encrusted cement materials was the predominant factor (39·0% of the total mixed proportion) to change the chemical composition of the seepage water during the ground water flow from the observation wells to the cavern. Integration of the statistical results also imply that ground water flow and hydrogeochemistry were predominantly affected by artificial factors such as cavern operation pressure and dissolution of encrusted cement materials, which were interdependent factors on the observation wells with high cross‐correlation coefficients and pH. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Statistical control chart for regime identification in volcanic time series     

Chih-Hsiang Ho 《Mathematical Geology》1992,24(7):775-787

In an important paper, Mulargia et al. (1987) address the importance of quantitative and objective identification of different regimes of a volcano. They develop a procedure based on the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) statistic. The K-S test is a general-purpose test that discriminates between two data sets as belonging to two different regimes based on their empirical distribution functions. The empirical distribution function is designed to describe the aggregate behavior of the volcanic activity, and it is constructed from the orders of the length of the collected repose times in each data set. In this article, we use the idea of statistical process control to distinguish between the variation inherent in the observed repose times and the extraordinary variation that signals a real change in the regimes. We construct a table of control limits, and we demonstrate the procedure of regime identification based on a simple control chart. It shows a point outside the control limits almost as soon as the process enters a new regime. The basis of the statistical process control mechanism is a simple Poisson process, which is state of the art. The proposed control charting procedure is an eruption by eruption procedure, which follows the original chronological order of the eruptions. This procedure is applied to the eruptive history of the Mount Etna volcano. The application shows schematically that the procedure presents a visual interpretation of the identified regimes and can be practically translated for tabular or manual use.  相似文献   

Composition and temperatures of the topside ionosphere over Arecibo     

M.C. Ho  D.R. Moorcroft 《Planetary and Space Science》1975,23(2):315-322

Results of analysis of about 150 autocorrelation functions are presented for the period from about 2300 hr on 5 October to about 1200 hr on 7 October 1967. A large percentage concentration of helium ions are observed. It reaches a value as high as 50 per cent with a maximum at around 800 km. Downward heat fluxes deduced from the temperature variations yield a value of about 2–2.5 × 10⁹ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 1200–1600 hr and a value of about 1.5 × 10⁸ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 0100–0400 hr at night. These agree well with other measurements. The O⁺ ions are found not to be in diffusive equilibrium, and from the O⁺ fluxes and the electron density profiles, the O⁺ drift velocity has been estimated. It is found that the speed can be as high as 1–5 × 10³ cm sec^?1 even at altitudes as high as 700 km.  相似文献   

Venus I. Carbon monoxide distribution and molecular-line searches     

W.J. Wilson  M.J. Klein  R.K. Kahar  S. Gulkis  E.T. Olsen  P.T.P. Ho 《Icarus》1981,45(3):624-637

An observational program to study variations of the vertical distribution of CO in the Venus atmosphere is presented. Measurements of the J = 0 → 1 absorption line at 2.6 mm wavelength are reported for two phase angles in 1977, one near eastern elongation (Feb.) and the other near inferior conjunction (Apr.). The two spectra are significantly different, with the April absorption line being narrower and deeper. The results of numerical inversion calculations show that the CO mixing ratio increases a factor of ～ 100 between 78 and 100 km and that the CO abundance above ～ 100 km is greatest on the night-side hemisphere. These conclusions are in qualitative agreement with theoretical models. In addition to the CO observations, a search for other molecules was made to provide further information on the composition of the Venus middle atmosphere. The J = 0 → 1 transition of ¹³CO was detected and upper limits were derived for nine other molecules.  相似文献