Change-point analysis for serially correlated summit temperatures in the Romanian Carpathians     

Adina-Eliza Croitoru  Dorin Drignei  Iulian-Horia Holobaca  Carmen Sofia Dragota 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(1-2):9-18

Characterizing climatic changes in the high-altitude mountain regions helps scientists and policy makers understand the effects of such changes on water resources, economic development, and the health of ecosystems. This paper proposes a change-point analysis to determine the time and magnitude of summer temperature changes in the summit areas of Romanian Carpathians between 1961 and 2007. Due to their altitude, massiveness, and position, Romanian Carpathians are an important barrier for different types of air masses between Western and Southeastern Europe. The results show that the change in summer temperatures occurred shortly after 1980. The average magnitude of this change is consistent with changes occurring in other parts of Southern Europe in the same time period although the magnitude of changes at individual weather stations may differ substantially. We aided our analysis by a statistical method based on regression models with serially correlated ARMA errors.  相似文献   

Chemical and mineralogical evidence of the occurrence of mantle metasomatism by carbonate-rich melts in an oceanic environment (Santiago Island, Cape Verde)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sofia Martins  João Mata  José Munhá  Maria Hermínia Mendes  Claude Maerschalk  Rita Caldeira  Nadine Mattielli 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,99(1-2):43-65

Lavas from Santiago Island attest to a complex magmatic history, in which heterogeneous mantle source(s) and the interactions of advecting magmas with thick metasomatised oceanic lithosphere played an important role in the observed isotopic and trace element signatures. Young (<3.3 Ma) primitive lavas from Santiago Island are characterised by pronounced negative K anomalies and trace element systematics indicating that during partial melting D_K>D_Ce. These features suggest equilibration with an oceanic lithospheric mantle containing K-rich hydrous mineral assemblages, consistent with the occurrence of amphibole + phlogopite in associated metasomatised lherzolite xenoliths, where orthopyroxene is partially replaced by newly formed olivine + (CO₂ + spinel + carbonate inclusion-rich) clinopyroxene. Metasomatism induced a decrease in $ a ^{{{\text{melt}}}}_{{{\text{SiO}}_{{\text{2}}} }} $ and Ti/Eu ratios, as well as an increase in fO ₂ , Ca/Sc and Sr/Sm in the Santiago magmas, suggesting a carbonatitic composition for the metasomatic agent. Santiago primitive lavas are highly enriched in incompatible elements and show a moderate range in isotopic compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70318–0.70391, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51261–0.51287, ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf?=?0.28284–0.28297). Elemental and isotopic signatures suggest the involvement of HIMU and EM1-type mantle end-members, in agreement with the overall isotopic characteristics of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The overall geochemical characteristics of lavas from Santiago Island allow us to consider the EM1-like end-member as resulting from the involvement of subcontinental lithospheric mantle in the genesis of magmas on Santiago.  相似文献   

Late Holocene environmental history on Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic, based on diatom floristic changes and geochemistry in sediments of a volcanic crater lake     

Sofia U. Holmgren  Karl Ljung  Svante Bj?rck 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(2):221-232

A late Holocene diatom stratigraphy of Bottom Pond (37°05′S, 12°17′W) was studied and interpreted to infer paleolimnological and climate changes on Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic. The diatom flora of Bottom Pond is dominated by meroplanktonic Aulacoseira alpigena and A. distans and a benthic/epiphytic flora including Achnanthes spp., Naviculadicta spp., Eunotia taxa and Frustulia rhomboides. The flora also includes an important terrestrial and aerophytic component, consisting of several Diadesmis spp., Navicula lapidosa, Nitzschia terrestris and some Pinnularia spp., at times dominating the flora. Peaks of high terrestrial diatom abundances and low abundances and concentrations of Aulacoseira spp., correspond to periods of increased magnetic susceptibility and are interpreted to be the result of increased catchment erosion and/or precipitation leading to enhanced in-wash of species living in the soils around the lake. The diatom record of Bottom Pond most likely registers both local responses to increased erosion in the catchment as well as climatic change of a more regional character. Comparisons with the geochemical record in 2nd Pond on Nightingale Island show a correspondence between the two data sets at 2,000–1,750 cal yrs BP, most likely evidence of increased precipitation in the Tristan da Cunha region. The Tristan da Cunha archipelago is situated at the northern limit of the Southern hemisphere west wind belt and stronger and/or a northward shift of the westerlies, are probably the main causes of the precipitation changes.  相似文献   

Geochronology of the medium to high-grade metamorphic units of the Peloritani Mts., Sicily     

Sofia?De GregorioEmail author  Silvio?G.?Rotolo  Igor?M.?Villa 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2003,92(6):852-872

The Peloritani Mountains are a fragment of an orogen variably attributed to the Alpine or Hercynian orogeny. On the basis of ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar, U-Pb and Rb-Sr dating, the main metamorphism of the two medium–high grade metamorphic units, the Mela and Aspromonte Units, and most of the thrusting responsible for stacking the orogenic edifice are seen to be Hercynian. The main thrusting of the Aspromonte Unit over the lower grade units took place at 301±2 Ma. Brittle deformation during Tertiary reactivation of Hercynian thrust planes did not generate any rejuvenation of white micas in the studied sector. Our dataset shows a great complexity and we propose to unravel it by considering different levels of information. To first order, the Mela and Aspromonte Units differ in their metamorphic paths and their geochronological evolution. The Mela Unit shows generally younger ages (Carboniferous) than the Aspromonte Unit and, unlike the latter, was extensively retrogressed in greenschist facies. The Aspromonte Unit is itself geochronologically heterogeneous. Proterozoic ages are preserved both in titanite and in amphibole relics of one tectonic subunit; Devonian to Carboniferous amphibole ages are found in different other subunits; tertiary overprint is minor and spatially limited. We propose to consider the chronologically heterogeneous subunits as accreted pre-Hercynian terranes amalgamated late during the Hercynian orogeny. Micas in both units give scattered Mesozoic ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar and Rb-Sr ages, with evidence for heterochemical mica generations. We interpret them as a result of widespread hydrothermal circulation event(s). Tertiary overprint is generally absent, with the exception of a small area near Messina where biotite and muscovite underwent a complex recrystallisation history in the interval between 48 and 61 Ma.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles     

A. C. Layden  P. A. Fox  J. M. Howard  A. Sarajedini  K. H. Schatten  S. Sofia 《Solar physics》1991,132(1):1-40

In this paper we present a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceeding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, we evaluate the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors which are physically related to the Sun's polar field. We subject these indicators to a rigorous statistical analysis, and specify in detail the analysis technique for each indicator in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. We find that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima.We also present a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. We then apply the scheme to the current cycle 22, and estimate a maximum smoothed International sunspot number of 171 ± 26, which can be expressed alternatively as a smoothed 2800 MHz radio flux (F _10.7) of 211 ± 23 × (10^–22 Wm^–2Hz^–1), or as a smoothed sunspot area of 2660 ± 430 millionths of a solar disk. Once the actual maximum for cycle 22 has been established, we will have both additional statistics for all the proxy indicators, and a clearer indication of how accurately the present scheme can predict solar activity levels.  相似文献   

EUDOSSO: a space project for solar oscillations and long term variability relevant to climatic changes     

L. Paternò  S. Sofia 《Solar physics》1994,152(1):303-308

The basic design and the scientific aims of the EUDOSSO project are described. EUDOSSO is a space instrument conceived for achieving very high accuracy and long term stability in measuring solar diameter time variations. Therefore it is suitable for measuring long periodg-modes, oblateness and long-term diameter variations possibly relevant to climatic changes.  相似文献   

Piles under axial and torsional loads     

Michael Georgiadis  Sofia Saflekou 《Computers and Geotechnics》1990,9(4):291-305

An analysis of axially and torsionally loaded piles is presented in which the pile is treated as an elastic bar supported on two series of interacting non-linear axial and torsional springs. The characteristics of these springs depend on the soil properties and the diameter of the pile as well as on the interaction between the axial and torsional response. Predicted pile responses are compared to the results of model tests conducted on piles installed in a soft clay bed and loaded with combined axial and torsional loads. Both experimental results and theoretical predictions show that a torque applied to the pile head affects significantly the settlement and the axial bearing capacity of the pile.  相似文献   

Seismicity of Western Crete and the destruction of the town of Kisamos at AD 365: Archaeological evidence     

Stathis C. Stiros  Sofia Papageorgiou 《Journal of Seismology》2001,5(3):381-397

The study of numerous archaeological excavations permits us to concludethat shortly after AD 355–361, the wealthy Roman town of Kisamos inwestern Crete was affected by a devastating earthquake (minimum intensityXI), which left many of the town's inhabitants buried under the ruins. Thisearthquake can be related to the July 21, 365 earthquake (M > 8),which was associated with a great tsunami, and was probably responsible forup to 9 m uplift of Western Crete; it probably resulted from thereactivation of a major thrust fault along the Hellenic Arc. Thearchaeological stratigraphy of Kisamos between circa AD 50 and AD650 testifies to two other, small-scale stratigraphic discontinuities that maybe related to two other smaller earthquakes, which produced 10–20 cmof coastal subsidence in AD 46–66 and in circa AD 270. There isevidence for a tsunami associated with the AD 46–66 earthquake, whichagrees with sedimentological data from the nearby ancient harbour ofPhalasarna, which was uplifted about 6.5 m in AD 365.The following evidence indicates that Western Crete is not seismicallyquiescent, as previously believed on the basis of historical data, but that ithas been affected by very strong, AD 365-type earthquakes followed byrelatively quiescence periods, that were at least several thousand years long:(1) Major earthquakes of Western Crete produced coastal uplift orsubsidence, while coastal stability indicates the absence of strongearthquakes; such stability characterizes this part of the island after AD365; (2) No evidence of earthquakes exist in the archaeological record ofKisamos between AD 365 and circa AD 650 and of Chania since AD1400/1500.  相似文献   

Photosynthetic carbon allocation: Effects of planktivorous fish and nutrient enrichment     

Sofia Perin  David R. S. Lean  Frances R. Pick  Asit Mazumder 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2002,64(3):217-238

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Food availability and the feeding ecology of ichthyofauna of a Ria Formosa (South Portugal) water reservoir     

Sofia Gamito  Ana Pires  Cristina Pita  Karim Erzini 《Estuaries and Coasts》2003,26(4):938-948

The feeding habits of several fish species in a water reservoir of the Ria Formosa, Portugal, that has similar ecological characteristics to the outside tidal channels, were studied and compared with food availability. The gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), the most abundant fish species, mainly selected gastropods and bivalves, although occasionally fish and small crustaceans such as tanaids, ostracods, and cumaceans were also selected. Polychaetes, although abundant in the environment, were not particularly selected by any of the fish species studied. The diets of all the species studied were characterized by a large variety of prey, allowing them to survive in environments of low diversity and poor stability, such as coastal lagoons. These fish are largely benthic feeders, essentially eating the epimacroinvertebrates and endomacroinvertebrates and, occasionally, fish.Diplodus vulgaris andDiplodus annularis preferentially selected gastropods and small crustaceans.Spondyliosoma cantharus generally preyed on crustaceans, including the highly mobile epifauma, the mysids, and decapods.Halobatrachus didactylus andAnguilla anguilla, had very diversified diets that included fish.Mullus barbatus were found to have selected all groups of crustaceans and also bivalves. Wrasses, gobies, andDiplodus sargus, all small-sized fish, singled out small crustaceans, gastropods, and bivalves. The Sparids were the least specialized predators, with broader niches than the other species. They preferentially selected molluscs, which were abundant in the environment. A large overlap of diets was observed and competition may be important when fish biomass is high.  相似文献