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31.
This paper discusses surface displacements, surface strain, rocking, and energy partitioning during reflection-of-plane waves in a fluid-saturated poroelastic half-space. The medium is modeled by Biot's theory, and is assumed to be saturated with inviscid fluid. A linear porosity-modulus relation based on experimental data on sandstones is used to determine the material parameters for Biot's model. Numerical results in terms of angle of incident waves and Poisson's ratio are illustrated for various porosities and degrees of solid frame stiffness. The results show that the amount of solid frame stiffness controls the response of a fluid-saturated porous system. A poroelastic medium with essentially dry-frame stiffness behaves like an elastic medium, and the influence of pore fluid increases as dry-frame stiffness is reduced. The effects of a second P-wave become noticeable in poroelastic media with low dry-frame stiffness.  相似文献   
32.
In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.  相似文献   
33.
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   
34.
Carbon dioxide sequestration in deep aquifers and depleted oilfields is a potential technical solution for reducing green-house gas release to the atmosphere: the gas containment relies on several trapping mechanisms (supercritical CO2, CO2(sc), dissolution together with slow water flows, mineral trapping) and on a low permeability cap-rock to prevent CO2(sc), which is less dense than the formation water, from leaking upwards. A leakproof cap-rock is thus essential to ensure the sequestration efficiency. It is also crucial for safety assessment to identify and assess potential alteration processes that may damage the cap-rock properties: chemical alteration, fracture reactivation, degradation of injection borehole seals, etc. The reactivity of the host-rock minerals with the supercritical CO2 fluid is one of the potential mechanisms, but it is altogether unknown. Reactivity tests have been carried out under such conditions, consisting of batch reactions between pure minerals and anhydrous supercritical CO2, or a two-phase CO2/H2O fluid at 200?°C and 105/160 bar. After 45 to 60 days, evidence of appreciable mineral-fluid reactivity was identified, including in the water-free experiments. For the mixed H2O/CO2 experiments, portlandite was totally transformed into calcite; anorthite displayed many dissolution patterns associated with calcite, aragonite, tridymite and smectite precipitations. For the anhydrous CO2 experiments, portlandite was totally carbonated to form calcite and aragonite; anorthite also displayed surface alteration patterns with secondary precipitation of fibrous calcite. To cite this article: O. Regnault et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   
35.
This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
36.
Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 106 m3 year?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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38.
Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO2 emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   
39.
40.
Hydrogeology Journal - Thanks to recent technological advances, hydrogeologists now have access to large amounts of data acquired in real time. Processing these data using traditional modelling...  相似文献   
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