Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展   总被引：41，自引：8，他引：33  

郭生练  闫宝伟  肖义  方彬  张娜 《水文》2008,28(3):1-7

综述了多变量水文分析计算方法及存在的问题.系统地介绍了Copula函数的基本理论与方法,分析探讨Copula函数在多变量水文计算领域的适用性及优越性.总结了Copula函数应用的关键技术,包括参数估计、拟合检验及类型选择等,并展望了Copula函数的研究应用前景.  相似文献   

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证     

许继军  杨大文  蔡治国  金勇 《水文》2008,28(1):32-37

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.  相似文献   

黄河内蒙古段冰凌形成机理及凌汛成因分析研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

冯国华  朝伦巴根  闫新光 《水文》2008,28(3):74-76

本文着重分析研究黄河内蒙古段冰凌形成杌理、冰情演变及凌汛成因.文中系统分析了黄河内蒙古段的冰情演变过程的四个时期,即由冰晶形成至产生大量冰凌的成冰期;由凌块封冻至盖面冰层增至最厚的结冰期:冰层开始融化至解冻前的融冰期和解冻开河至冰凌消失的消冰期.分析研究了影响凌汛成因的热力、动力和河势三大作用因素.使河水成冰又由冰融化成水的热量交换作用的因素,包括太阳辐射热、水温、气温、风、降水量、空气中的湿度:水位的抬升以至流速的变化等水流作用,均为动力因素;河道的特性影响为河势因素,通过分析研究,便于指导防凌实践,使防凌工作更加科学合理.  相似文献   

鲁中南隆起区第四纪晚期断裂活动特征   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

王志才  石荣会  晁洪太  陶九庆  韩延宏  逄锦亮  张春华 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2001,21(4):95-102

根据野外调查，并综合前人的研究资料，对鲁中南地区第四纪晚期断裂活动进行了分析，研究表明，鲁中南隆起区第四纪断裂活动具有时空不均匀性，主要表现为第四纪时期断层活动强度变化和断裂活动的群集性以及第四纪晚期断裂活动段分布的局限性上。对于鲁中南地区而言，活动断层可以分为中更新世中期（500kaBP)至晚更新世初期（90kaBP)活断层和晚更新世中、晚期至全新世早期活断层两类；其中前一类（主要是中更新世断裂）断裂数量较多，分布较为广泛，而晚更新世晚期以来的活动断裂段的数量较少，分布较局限。它们对地震的控制能力不同，前者可控制5．5级左右的地震，而后一类可控制6－7级地震的发生。  相似文献   

On the long-term joint distribution of characteristic wave height and period and its application     

Fang Zhongsheng  Dai Shunsun  Jin Chengyi 《海洋学报(英文版)》1989,8(3):315-325

By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme w  相似文献   

太阳黑子、厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋的活动   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

毛祖松  金德山 《海洋预报》1996,(4)

本文用１９００～１９９４年的资料，以统计分析的方法，对太阳黑子，厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋活动的相互关系，进行了初步探讨，归纳出几点有参考价值的结论  相似文献   

Variation of reactivity of particulate and sedimentary organic matter along the Zhujiang River Estuary   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Chen Jianfang  Jin Haiyan  Yin Kedong  Li Yan 《海洋学报(英文版)》2003,22(4):557-568

To investigate organic matter source and reactivity in the Zhujiang River (Pearl River)Estuary and its adjacent areas, particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate hydrolysable amino acids (PHAA), and Chl a during two cruises in July 1999 and July 2000 were measured. The highest POC and PHAA concentration was observed in the waters with maximum Chl a. The spectra distribution,relative content (dry weight in milligram per gram), PHAA-C% POC and other indicators such as the ratios of amino acids vs. amino sugars (AA/AS) and glucosamine vs. galactosamine (Glum/Gal) suggested that particulate amino acids in the water column and sediments in the Zhujiang River Estuary were mainly derived from biogenic processes rather than transported from terrestrial erosion. In inner estuary where high turbidity was often observable, organic matter was mainly contributed by re-suspension of bottom sediments with revealed zooplankton, microbial reworked characteristics, which suggest that these organic matters were relatively “old“. In the estuarine brackish region, organic matter in water column is mainly contributed by relatively fresh, easily degradable phytoplankton derived organic matter.During physical - biological processes within the eastuary, organic matter derived from phytoplankton was subjected to alteration by zooplankton grazing and bacterial reworking.  相似文献   

A Computational Model for Velocity Separation in Shallow Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SONG  Zhiyao 《中国海洋工程》2002,16(3):407-413

Based on the hydrodynamical feature and the theoretical velocity profiles of tidal flow and vvind-induced flow in shal-low sea, a computational model is established for the first time, which can separate observed velocity into tidal velocity and wind-induced velocity by use of the least square method. With the model, not only the surface velocities of tidal flow and vvind-induced flow are obtained, but also the bed roughness height is determined and the wind velocity above the wa-ter surface is estimated. For verification of the model, the observed velocity in the Yellow River Estuary and the laborato-ry test is separated, then it is applied to the Yangtze River Estuary. All the results are satisfactory. The research results show that the model is simple in method, feasible in process and reasonable in result. The model is a valid approach to analysis and computation of field dala, and can be applied to separate the observed velocity in shallow sea; at the same time, reasonable boundary conditions of th  相似文献   

胶州湾大沽河口洪水期三维水沙数值模拟研究     

韩树宗  赵瑾  魏福宝  林俊 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2007,37(5):689-694

大沽河是胶州湾最大的入海河流,每年都会给胶州湾带来大量泥沙。本文利用三维的ECOMSED水动力-泥沙数值模型对洪水期的大沽河进行了数值模拟,得到了洪水存在期间以及洪水结束后胶州湾的余流分布、大沽河河道上中下游各层盐度、泥沙浓度随时间变化的趋势以及入海冲淡水和泥沙对胶州湾的影响。  相似文献   

紫外线照射剂量对九孔鲍胚胎及幼虫的影响     

严正凛  关瑞章  胡家财  陈晓凤 《台湾海峡》2007,26(3):404-409

采用不同的紫外线照射剂量的海水诱导九孔鲍产卵,观察其对卵子的受精率、畸形率和孵化率的影响.紫外线照射剂量的配制方法是:用紫外线照射过的最大剂量的海水与新鲜海水混合配制出各种剂量的海水.实验把雌亲鲍分成7组,每组20只,分别用紫外线照射剂量为0(对照组)、450、600、750、900、1 050和1 200mW.h/dm3的海水进行刺激产卵.试验重复3次.结果表明,紫外线照射剂量在1 200mW.h/dm3以内,对卵子的受精率影响不大;紫外线照射剂量在750mW.h/dm3以内,对卵子的畸形率影响不大,但在900~1 200mW.h/dm3,对卵子的畸形率影响很大;紫外线照射剂量在600mW.h/dm3以内,对卵子的孵化率没有什么影响,但在750~1 200mW.h/dm3,对卵子的孵化率影响很大.综合考虑卵子的受精率、畸形率和孵化率,九孔鲍催产的适宜的紫外线照射剂量应为450~750mW.h/dm3.  相似文献