江西省早稻雨洗花灾害指标构建与灾损评估   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

田俊  霍治国 《应用气象学报》2018,29(6):657-666

构建早稻雨洗花灾害指标及适于早稻产量估算的灾损评估模型,对开展早稻雨洗花灾害监测、损失评估、灾害保险等具有重要意义。该文以江西省早稻为研究对象,利用1981-2015年14个水稻气象观测站逐日气象资料和农业气象观测资料,筛选出基于早稻抽穗扬花期间过程降水量、最大降水量、降水日数及实际产量的雨洗花灾害样本78个,在此基础上,利用相关分析、正态分布以及主成分回归法,建立了雨洗花灾害指标和灾损评估模型,并对其进行验证。结果表明:抽穗扬花期降水对雨洗花灾害形成有显著影响,其主要影响时段为抽穗扬花普遍期前后5 d内,关键时段为抽穗扬花普遍期前后3 d内。日降水量40 mm可作为早稻抽穗扬花期雨洗花灾害临界指标。以该指标为基础,统计日降水量不低于40 mm的降水日数及其对应的累积降水量,当累积降水量为40~170 mm时,为轻度雨洗花灾害,早稻一般减产小于15%,平均减产10%;当累积降水量不小于170 mm时,为重度雨洗花灾害,早稻一般减产不低于15%,平均减产22%。指标验证结果与历史实际灾害发生情况有较好的一致性。雨洗花灾损评估模型检验结果表明:雨洗花年模拟产量与实际产量吻合度较高,平均相对模拟误差为4.3%,78.0%的资料相对误差在5%以内,可利用该模型对雨洗花年的早稻减产率进行模拟和预测。  相似文献   

湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

范雨娴  霍治国  杨宏毅  尚莹 《应用气象学报》2018,29(2):141-153

以湖南省油菜为研究对象,综合洪涝与连阴雨的致灾因子,利用历史灾情数据反演涝渍过程样本,构建临灾、受灾状态样本,采用均值t检验方法,定量分析不同降水累积衰减系数w情况下,降水因子差异的显著性,构建有效累积降水量P_E。基于Fisher判别准则,计算涝渍灾害临灾与受灾的临界线,构建逐日动态的油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标y,并进行涝渍过程样本反演及独立样本验证。分析春季涝渍受灾频率与相对气象产量的关系,构建灾害影响评价模型。结果表明:当w=0.899时,受灾与临灾样本P_E的差异最显著。灾变判别指标y可逐日动态监测涝渍灾变过程及灾害后续影响,为动态监测区域油菜涝渍过程提供了数据支撑;指标指示的灾变范围与实际受灾情况基本一致,为区域防灾减灾提供了科学参考。开花期及结荚期湖南油菜涝渍受灾频率较高,成熟期较低。湖南省油菜春季涝渍灾害影响指数呈东南高西北低,长沙东部、株洲中部及北部、湘潭、永州及郴州中部油菜产量受涝渍灾害影响最重。  相似文献   

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统设计与实现     

詹利群  霍庆  张志强  刘一鸣  冯明农 《气象科技》2018,46(3):503-508

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统是基于国省统一的CIMISS数据环境,准实时生成日、候、旬、月、年值等统计产品的业务系统,能够满足用户对准实时质控后地面气象资料统计值的业务需求。本文主要介绍地面气象资料实时历史一体化统计加工系统的开发,从软件的需求分析、统计方法、功能实现、关键技术等方面阐述了如何在技术上实现地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统。通过运行策略配置,实现了系统定时自动运行,进一步丰富了CIMISS系统地面气象资料的产品库。  相似文献   

Observed particle sizes and fluxes of Aeolian sediment in the near surface layer during sand-dust storms in the Taklamakan Desert   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wen?Huo  Qing?He  Fan?Yang  Xinghua?Yang  Qing?Yang  Fuyin?Zhang  Ali?Mamtimin  Xinchun?Liu  Mingzhong?Wang  Yong?Zhao  Xiefei?ZhiEmail author 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,130(3-4):735-746

Monitoring, modeling and predicting the formation and movement of dust storms across the global deserts has drawn great attention in recent decades. Nevertheless, the scarcity of real-time observations of the wind-driven emission, transport and deposition of dusts has severely impeded progress in this area. In this study, we report an observational analysis of sand-dust storm samples collected at seven vertical levels from an 80-m-high flux tower located in the hinterland of the great Taklamakan Desert for ten sand-dust storm events that occurred during 2008–2010. We analyzed the vertical distribution of sandstorm particle grain sizes and horizontal sand-dust sediment fluxes from the near surface up to 80 m high in this extremely harsh but highly representative environment. The results showed that the average sandstorm grain size was in the range of 70 to 85 μm. With the natural presence of sand dunes and valleys, the horizontal dust flux appeared to increase with height within the lower surface layer, but was almost invariant above 32 m. The average flux values varied within the range of 8 to 14 kg m^?2 and the vertical distribution was dominated by the wind speed in the boundary layer. The dominant dust particle size was PM₁₀₀ and below, which on average accounted for 60–80 % of the samples collected, with 0.9–2.5 % for PM_0–2.5, 3.5–7.0 % for PM_0–10, 5.0–14.0 % for PM_0–20 and 20.0–40.0 % for PM_0–50. The observations suggested that on average the sand-dust vertical flux potential is about 0.29 kg m^?2 from the top of the 80 m tower to the upper planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere through the transport of particles smaller than PM₂₀. Some of our results differed from previous measurements from other desert surfaces and laboratory wind-dust experiments, and therefore provide valuable observations to support further improvement of modeling of sandstorms across different natural environmental conditions.  相似文献   

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨宏毅  霍治国  杨建莹  张桂香  吴立  范雨娴 《应用气象学报》2017,28(2):237-246

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。  相似文献   

基于智能物联网技术的天津城市积水监测预警系统     

侯天宇  梁好  霍凯  赵敏  陈子煊  张春莉  苑超 《气象研究与应用》2021,(1):85-89

通过智能物联网技术实时获取积水监测实况数据,利用天津市气象精细化格点预报产品和城市自动雨量观测站实况数据,以机器学习、神经网络模型和天津市城市内涝风险等级划分原理为基础,研究基于用户实时位置的城市内涝预报预警技术,研发天津市城市自动化积水监测预警系统。结果表明,该系统具备一定的城市内涝风险监测预警预报能力,并在2018—2020年多次重大天气过程中应用,积水深度预报结果与监测结果基本一致,应用数据表明验证结果良好,系统可以为政府防灾减灾决策、指挥调度提供精准、及时的气象数据支撑。  相似文献   

GD—DTPA脊髓造影磁共振扫描技术应用的研究     

曾庆玉  霍建伟 《CT理论与应用研究》1999,8(1):21-25

本文目的,通过将ＧＤ－ＤＴＰＡ直接注入蛛网膜下腔后进行脊髓造影ＭＲ扫描,探索一种新的ＭＲ检查方法,材料方法：对１１例患者进行ＧＤ－ＤＴＰＡ蛛网膜腔直接注射脊髓造影前后ＭＲ扫描,保持扫描序列不变。造影剂量为０．５～１．０ｍｌ,结果：所有患者脊髓造影后即刻扫描显示脑脊液信号反转,Ｔ１Ｗ高信号。Ｔ２Ｗ低信与,结论：小剂量ＧＤ－ＤＴＰＡ直接蛛网膜注射脊髓造影ＭＲ扫描是一种安全可靠的检查方法。对观察脑脊液动  相似文献   

近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究     

卢滔  胡国瑞  何福  郭迅  霍敬妍 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(3):625-634

为了获取近场永久位移,通常采用基线校正方法,对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值,但这一结果主观性较强,其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案,采用振动台加滑动机构的方法,模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况;在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程,对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程,将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比,以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明,在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后,通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。  相似文献   

Three-dimensional analysis of ozone and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> distributions obtained by observations of tethered balloon and unmanned aerial vehicle in Shanghai,China     

Xiao-Bing?Li  Dongfang?Wang  Qing-Chang?Lu  Zhong-Ren?PengEmail author  Qingyan?Fu  Xiao-Ming?Hu  Juntao?Huo  Guangli?Xiu  Bai?Li  Chao?Li  Dong-Sheng?Wang  Hanyu?Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(5):1189-1203

A lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a tethered balloon platform were jointly used to investigate three-dimensional distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations within the lower troposphere (1000 m) at a localized coastal area in Shanghai, China. Eight tethered balloon soundings and three UAV flights were conducted on May 25, 2016. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to quantitatively describe the relationships between air pollutants and other obtained parameters. Field observations showed that large variations were captured both in the vertical and horizontal distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations. Significant stratified layers of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations as well as wind directions were observed throughout the day. Estimated bulk Richardson numbers indicate that the vertical mixing of air masses within the lower troposphere were heavily suppressed throughout the day, leading to much higher concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The NO and NO₂ concentrations in the experimental field were much lower than that in the urban area of Shanghai and demonstrated totally different vertical distribution patterns from that of ozone and PM_2.5. This indicates that aged air masses of different sources were transported to the experimental field at different heights. Results derived from the GAMs showed that the aggregate impact of the selected variables for the vertical variations can explain 94.3% of the variance in ozone and 94.5% in PM_2.5. Air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure had the strongest effects on the variations of ozone and PM_2.5. As for the horizontal variations, the GAMs can explain 56.3% of the variance in ozone and 57.6% in PM_2.5. The strongest effect on ozone was related to air temperature, while PM_2.5 was related to relative humidity. The output of GAMs also implied that fine aerosol particles were in the stage of growth in the experimental field, which is different from ozone (aged air parcels of ozone). Geographical parameters influenced the horizontal variations of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations by changing underlying surface types. The differences of thermodynamic properties between land and sea resulted in quick changes of PBL height, air temperature and dew point over the coastal area, which was linked to the extent of vertical mixing at different locations. The results of GAMs can be used to analyze the sources and formation mechanisms of ozone and PM_2.5 pollutions at a localized area.  相似文献   

南极普里兹湾海域铀系同位素的分布   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

尹明端  曾文义  吴世炎  曾宪章  霍湘娟 《极地研究》2004,16(1):11-21

本文报道了南极普里兹湾海域U、2 2 6Ra、2 1 0 Pb、2 1 0 Po的分布以及2 34U/2 38U和2 1 0 Po/2 1 0 Pb放射性比值。研究结果表明 ,该海域表层水中的铀同位素分布基本均匀 ,铀含量范围为1 3 2 8- 1 4 2 0 μmol·m- 3,平均值为 ( 1 3.82± 0 .2 9) μmol·m- 3,2 34U/2 38U平均放射性比值为1 1 4± 0 0 3。铀含量与盐度之间存在良好的相关性 ,其相关系数达 0 895。该海域溶解态2 2 6Ra比活度范围为 1 37- 1 78Bq·m- 3,平均值为 1 5 5Bq·m- 3;颗粒态 2 2 6Ra比活度范围为0 0 0 6- 0 0 35Bq·m- 3,平均值为 0 0 1 5Bq·m- 3;2 1 0 Po比活度 0 80- 1 5 2Bq·m- 3,平均 1 1 4Bq·m- 3;2 1 0 Pb比活度 1 34- 2 1 5Bq·m- 3,平均 1 66Bq·m- 3;2 1 0 Po/2 1 0 Pb的放射性比值0 5 5- 0 84,平均 0 69。并对2 1 0 Po和2 1 0 Pb的不平衡作了讨论。还研究了 1个站位溶解态和颗粒态2 2 6Ra、2 1 0 Pb的深度分布及2 1 0 Pb在两相中的分配  相似文献