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81.
This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months (June and August) that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables (zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months) and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability. 相似文献
82.
Paul R. J. Saey Clemens Schlosser Pascal Achim Matthias Auer Anders Axelsson Andreas Becker Xavier Blanchard Guy Brachet Luis Cella Lars-Erik De Geer Martin B. Kalinowski Gilbert Le Petit Jenny Peterson Vladimir Popov Yury Popov Anders Ringbom Hartmut Sartorius Thomas Taffary Matthias Zähringer 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(4-5):499-515
Activity concentration data from ambient radioxenon measurements in ground level air, which were carried out in Europe in the framework of the International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE) in support of the development and build-up of a radioxenon monitoring network for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification regime are presented and discussed. Six measurement stations provided data from 5 years of measurements performed between 2003 and 2008: Longyearbyen (Spitsbergen, Norway), Stockholm (Sweden), Dubna (Russian Federation), Schauinsland Mountain (Germany), Bruyères-le-Châtel and Marseille (both France). The noble gas systems used within the INGE are designed to continuously measure low concentrations of the four radioxenon isotopes which are most relevant for detection of nuclear explosions: 131mXe, 133mXe, 133Xe and 135Xe with a time resolution less than or equal to 24 h and a minimum detectable concentration of 133Xe less than 1 mBq/m3. This European cluster of six stations is particularly interesting because it is highly influenced by a high density of nuclear power reactors and some radiopharmaceutical production facilities. The activity concentrations at the European INGE stations are studied to characterise the influence of civilian releases, to be able to distinguish them from possible nuclear explosions. It was found that the mean activity concentration of the most frequently detected isotope, 133Xe, was 5–20 mBq/m3 within Central Europe where most nuclear installations are situated (Bruyères-le-Châtel and Schauinsland), 1.4–2.4 mBq/m3 just outside that region (Stockholm, Dubna and Marseille) and 0.2 mBq/m3 in the remote polar station of Spitsbergen. No seasonal trends could be observed from the data. Two interesting events have been examined and their source regions have been identified using atmospheric backtracking methods that deploy Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling and inversion techniques. The results are consistent with known releases of a radiopharmaceutical facility. 相似文献
83.
Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change.
Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions
on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present
set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future
production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage
the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased
toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. 相似文献
84.
We estimated the net annual air–sea exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) using monitoring data from the East Gotland Sea, Bornholm Sea, and Kattegat for the 1993–2009 period. Wind speed and the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2w), calculated from pH, total alkalinity, temperature, and salinity, were used for the flux calculations. We demonstrate that regions in the central Baltic Sea and the Kattegat alternate between being sinks (−) and sources (+) of CO2 within the −4.2 to +5.2 mol m−2 yr−1 range. On average, for the 1994–2008 period, the East Gotland Sea was a source of CO2 (1.64 mol m−2 yr−1), the Bornholm Sea was a source (2.34 mol m−2 yr−1), and the Kattegat was a sink (−1.16 mol m−2 yr−1). Large inter-annual and regional variations in the air–sea balance were observed. We used two parameterizations for the gas transfer velocity (k) and the choice varied the air–sea exchange by a factor of two. Inter-annual variations in pCO2w between summers were controlled by the maximum concentration of phosphate in winter. Inter-annual variations in the CO2 flux and gas transfer velocity were larger between winters than between summers. This indicates that the inter-annual variability in the total flux was controlled by winter conditions. The large differences between the central Baltic Sea and Kattegat were considered to depend partly on the differences in the mixed layer depth. 相似文献
85.
Dan-Erik Lindberg Kjell Leonardsson Anders G. Andersson T. Staffan Lundström Hans Lundqvist 《Limnologica》2013,43(5):339-347
The spatial distribution of upstream migrating Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawners was studied in 2008 and 2009 in the surroundings of the tailrace from a hydropower station in the River Umeälven. This area is problematic because the fish have difficulties finding their way into the original riverbed, which prompted an investigation on the feasibility of adding a fishway in the area. Echo sounding was used in 2008 to investigate the spatial use of fish in the tailrace channel during the time of salmon migration. Presence of other fish species was so low that all echo sounding detections were assumed to be salmon. In 2009, data on wild radio-tagged salmon (n = 94) was collected in the same tailrace by an array of underwater antennas with a detection radius of approximately 10 m, to validate the results from the echo sounding. Both types of surveys showed aggregations of fish in one part of the tailrace. As a final step, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling was performed to analyze hydrodynamics. This CFD modeling showed a coincidence of fish detections in areas with turbulence intensities between 0.6 and 0.8, which may be an indication that the fish are holding in these areas to reduce energy expenditure during migration. A high proportion of the radio-tagged salmon were observed in the tailrace area (a median of 21 days between their first and last detection), indicating that the salmon are delayed in their upstream migration by the attraction to the tailrace in this area. The overall data on fish behavior in the tailrace led us to suggest a location for a new fishway where the fish aggregation was most pronounced. The number of detections from either technology had similar distributions over the tailrace, suggesting that the results are comparable. Thus, the split beam echo sounder can preferably be used to investigate which location is most appropriate for locations of entrances to new fishways since many more individual fishes are covered by this method compared to telemetry. Furthermore, there is no need to handle the fish in the echo sounding studies as is required in telemetry studies. 相似文献
86.
ABSTRACTIn recent years there has been a surge in land investments, primarily in the African continent, but also in Asia and Latin America. This increase in land investment was driven by the food pricing crisis of 2007–2008. Land investors can be identified from a variety of sectors, with actors ranging from hedge funds to national companies. Many water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among these financiers, and primarily invest in Africa. Recognizing the potential for “outsourcing” their food security (and thereby also partly their water security), Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have invested in land for food production in Africa. The extent to which this is happening is still unclear, as many contracts are not yet official and the extent of the leases is vague. This paper investigates the land investments and acquisitions by Middle Eastern countries. It also seeks to analyse what effect, if any, these investments can have on the potential for conflict reduction and subsequent peacebuilding in the Middle East region as the activity removes pressure from transboundary water resources.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR K. Aggestam 相似文献
87.
Dendroclimatological sampling of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been made in the province of J?mtland, in the west-central Scandinavian mountains, since the 1970s. The tree-ring width (TRW) chronology spans several thousand years and has been used to reconstruct June?CAugust temperatures back to 1632 bc. A maximum latewood density (MXD) dataset, covering the period ad 1107?C1827 (with gap 1292?C1315) was presented in the 1980s by Fritz Schweingruber. Here we combine these historical MXD data with recently collected MXD data covering ad 1292?C2006 into a single reconstruction of April?CSeptember temperatures for the period ad 1107?C2006. Regional curve standardization (RCS) provides more low-frequency variability than ??non-RCS?? and stronger correlation with local seasonal temperatures (51% variance explained). The MXD chronology shows a stronger relationship with temperatures than the TRW data, but the two chronologies show similar multi-decadal variations back to ad 1500. According to the MXD chronology, the period since ad 1930 and around ad 1150?C1200 were the warmest during the last 900?years. Due to large uncertainties in the early part of the combined MXD chronology, it is not possible to conclude which period was the warmest. More sampling of trees growing near the tree-line is needed to further improve the MXD chronology. 相似文献
88.
The dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) are assessed under present and glacial boundary conditions by investigating the SPG sensitivity to surface wind-stress changes in a coupled climate model. To this end, the gyre transport is decomposed in Ekman, thermohaline, and bottom transports. Surface wind-stress variations are found to play an important indirect role in SPG dynamics through their effect on water-mass densities. Our results suggest the existence of two dynamically distinct regimes of the SPG, depending on the absence or presence of deep water formation (DWF) in the Nordic Seas and a vigorous Greenland?CScotland ridge (GSR) overflow. In the first regime, the GSR overflow is weak and the SPG strength increases with wind-stress as a result of enhanced outcropping of isopycnals in the centre of the SPG. As soon as a vigorous GSR overflow is established, its associated positive density anomalies on the southern GSR slope reduce the SPG strength. This has implications for past glacial abrupt climate changes, insofar as these can be explained through latitudinal shifts in North Atlantic DWF sites and strengthening of the North Atlantic current. Regardless of the ultimate trigger, an abrupt shift of DWF into the Nordic Seas could result both in a drastic reduction of the SPG strength and a sudden reversal in its sensitivity to wind-stress variations. Our results could provide insight into changes in the horizontal ocean circulation during abrupt glacial climate changes, which have been largely neglected up to now in model studies. 相似文献
89.
90.
The rheology of debris flows is difficult to characterize owing to the varied composition and to the uneven distribution of the components that may range from clay to large boulders, in addition to water. Few studies have addressed debris flow rheology from observational, experimental, and theoretical viewpoints in conjunction. We present a coupled rheological‐numerical model to characterize the debris flows in which cohesive and frictional materials are both present. As a first step, we consider small‐scale artificial debris flows in a flume with variable percentages of clay versus sand, and measure separately the rheological properties of sand–clay mixtures. A comparison with the predictions of a modified version of the numerical model BING shows a reasonable agreement between measurements and simulations. As application to a field case, we analyse a recent debris flow that occurred in Fjærland (Western Norway) for which much information is now available. The event was caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) originating from the failure of a moraine ridge. In a previous contribution (Breien et al., Landslides, 2008 , 5: 271–280) we focused on the hydrological and geomorphological aspects. In particular we documented the marked erosion and reported the change in sediment transport during the event. In contrast to the laboratory debris flows, the presence of large boulders and the higher normal pressure inside the natural debris flow requires the introduction of a novel rheological model that distinguishes between mud‐to–clast supported material. We present simulations with a modified BING model with the new cohesive‐frictional rheology. To account for the severe erosion operated by the debris flow on the colluvial deposits of Fjærland, we also suggest a simple model for erosion and bulking along the slope path. Numerical simulations suggest that a self‐sustaining mechanism could partly explain the extreme growth of debris flows running on a soft terrain. 相似文献