Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):37-46

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.  相似文献   

Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production     

José Carlos de Araújo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(13):2005-2018

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quantification of volcanic explosions from tilt records: Volcán de Colima,México     

Vyacheslav M. Zobin  Hydyn Santiago-JiménezJuan José Ramírez-Ruiz  Gabriel A. Reyes-DávilaMauricio Bretón-González  Carlos Navarro-Ochoa 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007

  相似文献   

SCAP meeting no.10     

Mike Bode  Phil Charles  Carlos Frenk 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2001,42(2):2.27-2.28

Mike Bode , Phil Charles and Carlos Frenk report the minutes of the tenth meeting of the Standing Conference of Astronomy Professors, held at the RAS, Burlington House on 30 January 2001.  相似文献   

Distorted Froude‐scaled flume analysis of large woody debris     

Nicholas P. Wallerstein  Carlos V. Alonso  Sean J. Bennett  Colin R. Thorne 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1265-1283

This paper presents the results of a movable‐boundary, distorted, Froude‐scaled hydraulic model based on Abiaca Creek, a sand‐bedded channel in northern Mississippi. The model was used to examine the geomorphic and hydraulic impact of simplified large woody debris (LWD) elements. The theory of physical scale models is discussed and the method used to construct the LWD test channel is developed. The channel model had bed and banks moulded from 0·8 mm sand, and flow conditions were just below the threshold of motion so that any sediment transport and channel adjustment were the result of the debris element. Dimensions and positions of LWD elements were determined using a debris jam classification model. Elements were attached to a dynamometer to measure element drag forces, and channel adjustment was determined through detailed topographic surveys. The fluid drag force on the elements decreased asymptotically over time as the channel boundary eroded around the elements due to locally increased boundary shear stress. Total time for geomorphic adjustment computed for the prototype channel at the Q₂ discharge (discharge occurring once every two years on average) was as short as 45 hours. The size, depth and position of scour holes, bank erosion and bars created by flow acceleration past the elements were found to be related to element length and position within the channel cross‐section. Morphologies created by each debris element in the model channel were comparable with similar jams observed in the prototype channel. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Controls on Quaternary coastal evolution of the east-northeastern coast of Brazil: roles of sea-level history, trade winds and climate     

JosMaria Landim Dominguez  Abilio Carlos da Silva Pinto Bittencourt  Louis Martin 《Sedimentary Geology》1992,80(3-4):213-232

East-northeastern Brazil has a wave-dominated, micro- to meso-tidal coast, lying entirely within the southern Atlantic trade wind belt. Integration of geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating and vibracoring data shows that the Quaternary coastal evolution of this area was controlled by three major factors: (1) sea-level history; (2) trade winds; and (3) climate change.

Sea-level history. Along the east-northeastern coast of Brazil, relative sea level has fallen approximately 5 m during the last 5000 y. Correlation of this sea-level history with the evolution of beach-ridge, lagoonal and coastal plain deposits shows that: (1) sea-level rise favours the formation of barrier island—lagoonal systems and the construction of intralagoonal deltas; (2) sea-level lowering is not conductive to barrier island formation. Rather, lagoons and bays become emergent and beach-ridge plains rapidly prograde.

Trade winds. Sediment dispersal systems along the coastal zone of east-northeastern Brazil have been highly persistent since Pleistocene time, as deduced from beach-ridge orientation. This persistence results from the fact that sediment dispersal in wave-dominated settings is ultimately controlled by atmospheric circulation which, for the east-northeastern coast of Brazil is associated with the South Atlantic high-pressure cell. The remarkable stability of this cell through time, has allowed the accumulation of extensive beach-ridge plains at the longshore drift sinks located along the coast.

Climate change. Effects of Quaternary climate changes on coastal sedimentation are twofold. Climate changes may affect rainfall patterns, thus exerting an important control on coastal dune development. Along the coast of northeastern Brazil, active coastal dunes are only present in those areas in which at least four consecutive dry months occur during the year. Mapping of these areas has shown that dune development during the Holocene has been episodic, these episodes being probably controlled by variations in rainfall patterns associated with climate changes. Secondly, despite its overall stability, the position of the high-pressure cell has experienced small shifts in position during the Holocene in response to climate changes. Changes in wind direction associated with these shifts have induced modifications in the coastal dispersion system, which are recorded in the strandplains as small truncations in the beach-ridge alignments.

These results have important implications in understanding accumulation of ancient sandstone shoreline sequences.  相似文献   

Mountains,nations, parks,and conservation     

Daniel Taylor-Ide  Alton C. Byers III  J. Gabriel Campbell 《GeoJournal》1992,27(1):105-112

Between 1985 and 1991, two new mountain protected areas (MTNPA) covering more than 35,000 km² and based on participatory management models — the Makalu-Barun National Park and Conservation Area, Nepal, and Qomolangma Nature Preserve, Tibet Autonomous Region — were successfully established through the collaborative efforts of Woodlands Mountain Institute and conservationists in China and Nepal. Characteristics common to both projects include the importance of establishing (1) effective rationales, (2) local support constituencies, (3) a senior advisory group, (4) a task force, (5) linkages between conservation and development, and (6) fund raising mechanisms. The lessons derived from the experiences of Woodlands Mountain Institute are of significant value to others in preserving MTNPA. Increased collaboration and communication between all interested in conservation, however, will remain a critical component for expanding mountain protected area coverage to throughout the world.  相似文献   

Hot pressing of polycrystals of high-pressure phases of mantle minerals in multi-anvil apparatus     

Gabriel D. Gwanmesia  Baosheng Li  Robert C. Liebermann 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,141(2-4):467-484

In the 1960s, E. Schreiber and his colleagues pioneered the use of hot-pressed polycrystalline aggregates for studies of the pressure and temperature dependence of the elastic wave velocities in minerals. We have extended this work to the high-pressure polymorphs of mantle minerals by developing techniques to fabricate large polycrystalline specimens in a 2000-ton uniaxial split-sphere apparatus. A new cell assembly has been developed to extend this capability to pressures of 20 GPa and temperatures of 1700°C. Key elements in the new experimental design include: a telescopic LaCrO₃ forT>1200°C; Toshiba Tungaloy grade F tungsten carbide anvils; and the use of homogeneous glasses or seeded powder mixtures as starting material to enhance reactivity and maximize densities. Cell temperatures are linearly related to electrical power to 1700°C and uniform throughout the 3 mm specimens. Pressure calibrations at 25°C and 1700°C are identical to 15 GPa. Cylindrical specimens of the beta and spinel phases of Mg₂SiO₄, stishovite (SiO₂-rutile), and majorite-pyrope garnets have been synthesized within their stability fields in runs of 1–4 hr duration and recovered at ambient conditions by simultaneously decompressing and cooling along a computer-controlledP-T path designed to preserve the high-pressure phase and to relax intergranualar stress in the polycrystalline aggregate. These specimens are single-phased, fine-grained (<5 micron), free of microcracks and preferred orientation, and have bulk densities greater than 99% of X-ray density. The successful fabrication of these high-quality polycrystalline specimens has made possible experiments to determine the pressure dependence of acoustic velocities in the ultrasonics laboratory of S. M. Rigden and I. Jackson at the Australian National University.CHiPR: NSF Science and Technology Center for High Pressure Research.  相似文献   

The best plane through data     

John R. Sturgul  Carlos Aiken 《Mathematical Geosciences》1970,2(3):325-331

  相似文献   

Tectonics and volcanism along the Pacific Marginal Zone of Central America     

Gabriel Dengo  Otto Bohnenberger  Samuel Bonis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1970,59(3):1215-1232

The relation of volcanism to tectonics in the Central American region has been established by a review of the literature as well as by field and photogeological work of the authors. The association of a deep trench off the Pacific coast, a parallel seismic belt, and a similarly oriented chain of volcanic vents farther inland, has been recognized by numerous earlier workers. These features form a tectonic unit, and are here termed the Pacific marginal zone.Seismic foci on the northeastern edge of the southern part of the Middle American Trench define a fault zone which dips under the continent and suggests movement of the oceanic plate underneath the Central American continent.An impressive chain of volcanic cones and associated shallow seismic foci is aligned along a prominent graben, best developed in Nicaragua where it is known as the Nicaraguan Depression. This feature probably originated in late Tertiary time. The southeastern end of the graben terminates at the northern ranges of the Talamanca Cordillera in Costa Rica. At the Gulf of Fonseca the trend of the graben changes from NW to E-W; the graben continues as the Central Depression of El Salvador at a higher elevation. Only the fault of the seaward border of the graben is defined in Guatemala, where it is represented by a NW trending volcanic chain.In Nicaragua and El Salvador the oldest cones are situated on the north-eastern boundary fault zone of the graben. These include remnants of the largest volcanic structures of the region. All the active volcanoes are on the southwestern boundary fault belt. Cross fracturing of this fault system controlled later northerly trending cone alignments, often with the youngest cones on the south end.The main graben and associated faults are considered results of tensional stresses on the crest of geanticlinal arching on the landward side of the Middle American Trench. This arching is believed to be due to regional compression originated by the movement of the oceanic plate against the mainland.In northwestern Central America the youngest stresses produced N-S normal faults that are marked by well-defined scarps. These stresses may be the result of right-lateral motion along the underthrust fault zone. The complex Comayagua graben north of the Gulf of Fonseca, the Ipala graben and associated faults in southeastern Guatemala, and the Guatemala City graben are all north-south features illustrating the extent and youth of this structural trend.The distribution of volcanic vents along the Nicaraguan Depression and the N-S trends underscores the close tectonic control of volcanism.

---

Zusammenfassung Der Zusammenhang zwischen Tektonik und Vulkanismus im mittelamerikanischen Raum wird aufgezeigt aufgrund einer Literaturdurchsicht und feldgeologischer Arbeiten der Verfasser. Die Beziehungen zwischen einem Tiefseegraben vor der pazifischen Küste, einem dem Festland parallelen seismischen Gürtel und einer ebenso orientierten Vulkankette weiter im Inland sind von früheren Bearbeitern bereits erkannt worden. Diese drei Einheiten werden hier zusammengefaßt und als pazifische Randzone bezeichnet.Erdbebenherde am Nordostrand des mittelamerikanischen Tiefseegrabens weisen auf eine Störungszone hin, die unter den Kontinent einfällt. Der Bewegungssinn spricht für ein Abtauchen der ozeanischen Platte unter das mittelamerikanische Festland.Eine eindrucksvolle Vulkankette und die mit ihr verbundenen Erdbebenherde sind längs eines bedeutenden Grabens aufgereiht, der in Nicaragua am deutlichsten ausgebildet ist und dort Nicaragua-Senke genannt wird. Diese tektonische Einheit entstand wahrscheinlich im Jung-Tertiär. Der Graben beginnt im Südosten an den nördlichen Ausläufern der Talamanca-Kordillere in Costa Rica.In Nicaragua verläuft er NW. Am Golf von Fonseca schwenkt er in eine E-W-Richtung und setzt sich in El Salvador in einem höheren Niveau als Zentral-Depression fort. In Guatemala ist nur der Südrand des Grabens erkennbar. Er ist gekennzeichnet durch eine in NW-Richtung aufgereihte Vulkankette. In Nicaragua und El Salvador liegen die ältesten Vulkane auf dem nordöstlichen Grenzbruch des Grabens. Zu dieser Gruppe zählen die größten Rumpfvulkane. Die meisten Kegel und alle tätigen Vulkane liegen hingegen auf dem südwestlichen Grenzbruchstreifen. Auf Querbrüchen haben sich jüngere, nördlich ausgerichtete Kegelreihen gebildet. Die jüngsten Kegel liegen meistens am südlichen Ende der Querbrüche.Es wird angenommen, daß der Hauptgraben und seine Störungen im Scheitel einer zum mittelamerikanischen Tiefseegraben parallel verlaufenden Aufwölbung entstanden sind. Die Aufwölbung kann auf Kompression der ozeanischen Platte gegen das Festland zurückgeführt werden.Im nordwestlichen Zentralamerika bewirkten jüngere Beanspruchungen die Bildung von N-S-Brüchen, die heute morphologisch als Steilkanten hervortreten. Diese Beanspruchungen können durch rechtslaterale Bewegungen entlang der pazifischen Störungszone ausgelöst worden sein. Beispiele dieser N-S-Struktur sind: Die Comayagua-Grabenzone, nördlich des Golfs von Fonseca, der Ipala-Graben und sein Störungssystem in Südost-Guatemala und der Guatemala-Stadt-Graben. Diese N-S-Störungen kennzeichnen das Ausmaß und das geringe Alter der Grabenbildung.Die Anordnung der Vulkane entlang der Nicaragua-Senke und der N-S-Brüche stellen die engen Beziehungen zwischen Tektonik und Vulkanismus in der pazifischen Randzone Mittelamerikas heraus.

---

Resumen Mediante información tomada de la literatura, trabajos de campo e interpretation fotogeológica, se establece la relación entre el volcanismo y la tectónica en la región de América Central. Se usa la denominación de zona marginal del Pacífico para identificar, como una unidad, la asociación ya reconocida por otros autores de la profunda Fosa Mesoamericana frente a la costa del Pacífico de America Central y las franjas paralelas de actividad sísmica y de cadenas volcánicas.Los focos sísmicos en el borde nororiental de la Fosa Mesoamericana definen una gran zona de afallamiento inclinada hacia el continente, cuyos movimientos indican que un bloque de la corteza oceánica se sumerge bajo la porción continental de America Central.Una imponente serie de conos volcánicos, asociada a focos sísmicos poco profundos, está situada a lo largo de un gran graben conocido como Depresión de Nicaragua, por ser en ese país donde aparece más claramente definido. Este graben, que posiblemente se originó durante el Terciario tardío, termina en su extremo suroriental contra las estribaciones de la parte norte de la Cordillera de Talamanca, en Costa Rica. En Nicaragua el graben está orientado hacia el NW hasta el Golfo de Fonseca donde toma un rumbo E-W a través de El Salvador, donde se encuentra a mayor elevación. En Guatemala se conoce únicamente una línea de fallas, la más próxima al mar, definida por una cadena de volcanes que tiene nuevamente dirección NW.En Nicaragua y El Salvador los conos volcánicos más antiguos están situados a lo largo de las fallas que limitan al graben en su lado nororiental. Allí se encuentran las ruinas de los edificos volcánicos más grandes de la región. La mayoría de los conos que incluye todos los actualmente activos, se localizan a lo largo de las fallas del borde suroccidental del graben. Fracturas transversales controlan la localization de varios grupos de conos alineados de N-S. Los volcanes más jóvenes se encuentran frecuentemente en el extremo sur.Se postula que el graben principal y otras fallas del mismo sistema han sido formados como resultado de esfuerzos de tensión, en la cresta de un geanticlinal que resultó del arqueamiento del lado terrestre de la zona marginal del Pacífico. Dicho arqueamiento se cree que resulta de la compresión regional debida al movimiento del bloque oceánico contra el continente.En la parte noroccidental de América Central los esfuerzos más recientes produjeron fallas orientadas N-S, fácilmente identificables por sus bien marcadas escarpas. Estos esfuerzos pueden haber resultado del desplazamiento dextromóvil a lo largo de las zonas de afallamiento paralelas a la Fosa Mesoamericana.El complejo graben de Comayagua, al norte del Golfo de Fonseca, y los graben de Ipala y de la Ciudad de Guatemala, orientados también de norte a sur, ilustran la extension y la joven edad de las fracturas.La distribución de los focos volcánicos a lo largo de la Depresión de Nicaragua y de las fracturas N-S muestran de manera evidente, la estrecha relación que existe entre la tectónica y la localización del volcanismo en la zona marginal del Pacifico de America Central.

---

, - . - , . . , , . , , - . - Talamanca Kordillere -. - - . Fanseca . . , , . - . . . , . . - N-S , . . : Comayagua, Fanseca, Ipala - . - . , .

  相似文献