A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru     

Holger Frey  Christian Huggel  Yves Bühler  Daniel Buis  Maria Dulce Burga  Walter Choquevilca  Felipe Fernandez  Javier García Hernández  Claudia Giráldez  Edwin Loarte  Paul Masias  Cesar Portocarrero  Luis Vicuña  Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.  相似文献   

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting          下载免费PDF全文

Matthew S. A. Horstwood  George Gehrels  Simon E. Jackson  Noah M. McLean  Chad Paton  Norman J. Pearson  Keith Sircombe  Paul Sylvester  Pieter Vermeesch  James F. Bowring  Daniel J. Condon  Blair Schoene 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):311-332

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.  相似文献   

Geocomputation: a practical primer,by Chris Brunsdon and Alex Singleton,London, SAGE Publications, 2015, 392 pp., US$52.00, ISBN 9781446272930 (paperback), ISBN 9781446272923 (hardcover)     

Carson J. Q. Farmer 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(4):819-821

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Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling     

K. Daniel Khan  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):51-70

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.  相似文献   

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain     

José Antonio López-Sáez  Francisca Alba-Sánchez  Sandra Robles-López  Sebastián Pérez-Díaz  Daniel Abel-Schaad  Silvia Sabariego-Ruiz  Arthur Glais 《山地科学学报》2016,13(7):1139-1153

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.  相似文献   

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway     

Vegard Gundersen  Bjørn Petter Kaltenborn  Daniel R. Williams 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(4):216-229

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.  相似文献   

Snowmelt contribution to the sustainability of the irrigated Mendoza’s Oasis,Argentina: an isotope study     

Hector Massone  Daniel Martinez  Alberto Vich  Mauricio Quiroz Londoño  Darío Trombotto  Sebastián Grondona 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(6):520

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Biogeochemical mechanisms controlling trophic state and micropollutant concentrations in a tropical artificial lake     

Normara Yane Mar da Costa  Geraldo Resende Boaventura  Daniel Santos Mulholland  Daniel Ferreira Araújo  Ricardo C. A. Moreira  Kelson C. F. Faial  Eudes de Oliveira Bomfim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(10):854

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Stochastic groundwater modeling of a sedimentary aquifer: evaluation of the impacts of abstraction scenarios under conditions of reduced recharge     

Sandow Mark Yidana  Millicent Obeng Addai  Daniel Kwadwo Asiedu  Bruce Banoeng-Yakubo 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(17):684

A transient finite difference groundwater flow model has been calibrated for the Nasia sub-catchment of the White Volta Basin. This model has been validated through a stochastic parameter randomization process and used to evaluate the impacts of groundwater abstraction scenarios on resource sustainability in the basin. A total of 1500 equally likely model realizations of the same terrain based on 1500 equally likely combinations of the data of the key aquifer input parameters were calibrated and used for the scenario analysis. This was done to evaluate model non-uniqueness arising from uncertainties in the key aquifer parameters especially hydraulic conductivity and recharge by comparing the realizations and statistically determining the degree to which they differ from each other. Parameter standard deviations, computed from the calibrated data of the key parameters of hydraulic conductivity and recharge, were used as a yardstick for evaluating model non-uniqueness. All model realizations suggest horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates in the range of 0.03–78.4 m/day, although over 70 % of the area has values in the range of 0.03–14 m/day. Low standard deviations of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates from the 1500 solutions suggest that this range adequately reflects the properties of the material in the terrain. Lateral groundwater inflows and outflows appear to constitute significant components of the groundwater budgets in the terrain, although estimated direct vertical recharge from precipitation amounts to about 7 % of annual precipitation. High potential for groundwater development has been suggested in the simulations, corroborating earlier estimates of groundwater recharge. Simulation of groundwater abstraction scenarios suggests that the domain can sustain abstraction rates of up to 200 % of the current estimated abstraction rates of 12,960 m³/day under the current recharge rates. Decreasing groundwater recharge by 10 % over a 20-year period will not significantly alter the results of this abstraction scenario. However, increasing abstraction rates by 300 % over the period with decreasing recharge by 10 % will lead to drastic drawdowns in the hydraulic head over the entire terrain by up to 6 m and could cause reversals of flow in most parts of the terrain.  相似文献   

Defining the Potential of Nanoscale Re‐Os Isotope Systematics Using Atom Probe Microscopy          下载免费PDF全文

Luke Daly  Phil A. Bland  Svetlana Tessalina  David W. Saxey  Steven M. Reddy  Denis Fougerouse  William D.A. Rickard  Lucy V. Forman  Alexandre La Fontaine  Julie M. Cairney  Simon P. Ringer  Bruce F. Schaefer  Daniel Schwander 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2018,42(3):279-299

Atom probe microscopy (APM) is a relatively new in situ tool for measuring isotope fractions from nanoscale volumes (< 0.01 μm³). We calculate the theoretical detectable difference of an isotope ratio measurement result from APM using counting statistics of a hypothetical data set to be ± 4δ or 0.4% (2s). However, challenges associated with APM measurements (e.g., peak ranging, hydride formation and isobaric interferences), result in larger uncertainties if not properly accounted for. We evaluate these factors for Re‐Os isotope ratio measurements by comparing APM and negative thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) measurement results of pure Os, pure Re, and two synthetic Re‐Os‐bearing alloys from Schwander et al. (2015, Meteoritics and Planetary Science, 50, 893) [the original metal alloy (HSE) and alloys produced by heating HSE within silicate liquid (SYN)]. From this, we propose a current best practice for APM Re‐Os isotope ratio measurements. Using this refined approach, mean APM and N‐TIMS ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁹Os measurement results agree within 0.05% and 2s (pure Os), 0.6–2% and 2s (SYN) and 5–10% (HSE). The good agreement of N‐TIMS and APM ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁹Os measurements confirms that APM can extract robust isotope ratios. Therefore, this approach permits nanoscale isotope measurements of Os‐bearing alloys using the Re‐Os geochronometer that could not be measured by conventional measurement principles.  相似文献