Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years     

Raphael Neukom  David J. Nash  Georgina H. Endfield  Stefan W. Grab  Craig A. Grove  Clare Kelso  Coleen H. Vogel  Jens Zinke 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2713-2726

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.  相似文献   

Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships’ logbooks (1685–2008)     

David Barriopedro  David Gallego  M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro  Ricardo García-Herrera  Dennis Wheeler  Cristina Peña-Ortiz  Susana M. Barbosa 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):939-955

A monthly index based on the persistence of the westerly winds over the English Chanel is constructed for 1685–2008 using daily data from ships’ logbooks and comprehensive marine meteorological datasets. The so-called Westerly Index (WI) provides the longest instrumental record of atmospheric circulation currently available. Anomalous WI values are associated with spatially coherent climatic signals in temperature and precipitation over large areas of Europe, which are stronger for precipitation than for temperature and in winter and summer than in transitional seasons. Overall, the WI series accord with the known European climatic history, and reveal that the frequency of the westerlies in the eastern Atlantic during the twentieth century and the Late Maunder Minimum was not exceptional in the context of the last three centuries. It is shown that the WI provides additional and complementary information to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. The analysis of WI series during the industrial era indicates an overall good agreement with the winter and high-summer NAO, with the exception of several multidecadal periods of weakened correlation. These decoupled periods between the frequency and the intensity of the zonal flow are interpreted on the basis of several sources of non-stationarity affecting the centres of the variability of the North Atlantic and their teleconnections. Comparisons with NAO reconstructions and long instrumental indices extending back to the seventeenth century suggest that similar situations have occurred in the past, which call for caution when reconstructing the past atmospheric circulation from climatic proxies. The robustness and extension of its climatic signal, the length of the series and its instrumental nature make the WI an excellent benchmark for proxy calibration in Europe and Greenland.  相似文献   

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Agathe Germe  Matthieu Chevallier  David Salas y Mélia  Emilia Sanchez-Gomez  Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?     

Lester Kwiatkowski  Paul R. Halloran  Peter J. Mumby  David B. Stephenson 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1483-1496

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.  相似文献   

Geochemical Characteristics,Origin, and Evolution of Ore‐Forming Fluids of the Khut Copper Skarn Deposit,West of Yazd in Central Iran     

Azam Zahedi  Mohammad Boomeri  Kazuo Nakashima  Mohammad Ali Mackizadeh  Masao Ban  David R. Lentz 《Resource Geology》2014,64(3):209-232

The Khut copper skarn deposit is located at about 50 km northwest of Taft City in Yazd province in the middle part of the Urumieh‐Dokhtar magmatic arc. Intrusion of granitoid of Oligocene–Miocene age into carbonate rocks of the Triassic Nayband Formation led to the formation of marble and a calcic skarn. The marble contains high grade Cu mineralization that occurs mainly as open space filling and replacement. Cu‐rich sulfide samples from the mineralized marble are also anomalous in Au, Zn, and Pb. In contrast, the calcic skarn is only weakly anomalous in Cu and W. The calcic skarn is divided into garnet skarn and garnet–pyroxene skarn zones. Paragenetic relationships and microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in garnet and calcite indicate that the compositional evolution of skarn minerals occurred in three main stages as follows. (i) The early prograde stage, which is characterized by Mg‐rich hedenbergite (Hd_53.7Di_42.3–Hd_86.1Di_9.5) with Al‐bearing andradite (69.8–99.5 mol% andradite). The temperature in the early prograde skarn varies from 400 to 500°C at 500 bar. (ii) The late prograde stage is manifested by almost pure andradite (96.2–98.4 mol% andradite). Based on the fluid inclusion data from garnet, fluid temperature and salinity in this stage is estimated to vary from 267 to 361°C and from 10.1 to 21.1 wt% NaCl equivalent, respectively. Pyrrhotite precipitation started during this stage. (iii) The retrograde stage occurs in an exoskarn, which consists of an assemblage of ferro‐actinolite, quartz, calcite, epidote, chlorite, sphalerite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite that partially replaces earlier mineral assemblages under hydrostatic conditions during fracturing of the early skarn. Fluids in calcite yielded lower temperatures (T < 260°C) and fluid salinity declined to ～8 wt% NaCl equivalent. The last stage mineralization in the deposit is supergene weathering/alteration represented by the formation of iron hydroxide, Cu‐carbonate, clay minerals, and calcite. Sulfur isotope data of chalcopyrite (δ³⁴S of +1.4 to +5.2‰) show an igneous sulfur source. Mineralogy and mineral compositions of the prograde assemblage of the Khut skarn are consistent with deposition under intermediately oxidized and slightly lower fS₂ conditions at shallow crustal levels compared with those of other typical Fe‐bearing Cu–Au skarn systems.  相似文献   

Density-Stratified Flow Events in Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA: Implications for Mercury and Salinity Cycling     

David L. Naftz  Gregory T. Carling  Cory Angeroth  Michael Freeman  Ryan Rowland  Eddy Pazmiño 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(6):547-571

Density stratification in saline and hypersaline water bodies from throughout the world can have large impacts on the internal cycling and loading of salinity, nutrients, and trace elements. High temporal resolution hydroacoustic and physical/chemical data were collected at two sites in Great Salt Lake (GSL), a saline lake in the western USA, to understand how density stratification may influence salinity and mercury (Hg) distributions. The first study site was in a causeway breach where saline water from GSL exchanges with less saline water from a flow restricted bay. Near-surface-specific conductance values measured in water at the breach displayed a good relationship with both flow and wind direction. No diurnal variations in the concentration of dissolved (<0.45 μm) methylmercury (MeHg) were observed during the 24-h sampling period; however, the highest proportion of particulate Hg_total and MeHg loadings was observed during periods of elevated salinity. The second study site was located on the bottom of GSL where movement of a high-salinity water layer, referred to as the deep brine layer (DBL), is restricted to a naturally occurring 1.5-km-wide “spillway” structure. During selected time periods in April/May, 2012, wind-induced flow reversals in a railroad causeway breach, separating Gunnison and Gilbert Bays, were coupled with high-velocity flow pulses (up to 55 cm/s) in the DBL at the spillway site. These flow pulses were likely driven by a pressure response of highly saline water from Gunnison Bay flowing into the north basin of Gilbert Bay. Short-term flow reversal events measured at the railroad causeway breach have the ability to move measurable amounts of salt and Hg from Gunnison Bay into the DBL. Future disturbance to the steady state conditions currently imposed by the railroad causeway infrastructure could result in changes to the existing chemical balance between Gunnison and Gilbert Bays. Monitoring instruments were installed at six additional sites in the DBL during October 2012 to assess impacts from any future modifications to the railroad causeway.  相似文献   

Catastrophic,rainfall-induced debris flows in Andean villages of Tarapacá, Atacama Desert,northern Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sergio A. Sepúlveda  Sofía Rebolledo  James McPhee  Marisol Lara  Mauricio Cartes  Eduardo Rubio  David Silva  Nicolle Correia  Juan P. Vásquez 《Landslides》2014,11(3):481-491

In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.  相似文献   

The “Boscobel Landslip” of October 1st, 1901—the largest historic landslide in Barbados,West Indies     

David Cruden  Hans G. Machel  John Knox  Richard Goddard 《Landslides》2014,11(4):673-684

Barbados is a small Caribbean island located on the crest of an accretionary prism about 125 km east of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc. The oldest strata, Eocene sandstones and shales, are overlain by Oligocene–Miocene chalks and marls, in turn overlain by Pleistocene reef and lagoonal limestones that cover about 85 % of the island. The Eocene sediments, which crop out in the Scotland District of Barbados, are prone to soil creep and landslides covering tens to hundreds of hectares. The largest historic landslide, the “Boscobel Landslip,” occurred on 01 October 1901. We used nineteenth-century and more modern topographic and geologic maps, air photographs, and various archival and petrophysical data, to supplement reconnaissance of the landslide in the field. We identified about ten million cubic meters of the displaced material of the landslide, as well as the meteorological and geological conditions that contributed to the Boscobel Landslip. Similar landslides would pose a presently unquantified hazard to inhabitation and future development in the Scotland District.  相似文献   

Identifying the Real Pollinators? Exotic Honeybees Are the Dominant Flower Visitors and Only Effective Pollinators of Avicennia marina in Australian Temperate Mangroves     

Tyge D. Hermansen  David R. Britton  David J. Ayre  Todd E. Minchinton 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(3):621-635

The literature suggests that, in the tropics, mangroves are typically pollinated by a range of generalist pollinators, whereas in temperate populations, pollination biology is largely unstudied. We predicted that, for the mangrove Avicennia marina in temperate southeast Australia, pollinator diversity would be low and its pollination system modified by the exotic honeybee Apis mellifera. Multiyear surveys and experiments were used to test these hypotheses by determining the identity and frequency of flower visitors, quantifying pollinator foraging behaviour, determining the species composition of pollen loads, and demonstrating pollen removal and deposition. We identified 38 species that visited flowers, but only A. mellifera was a significant pollinator. It was the only species to carry large amounts of pollen and forage in a manner permitting transfer of pollen to stigmas. Moreover, A. mellifera was the numerically dominant flower visitor and was effective in both pollen removal and deposition. This study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing flower visitors from pollinators and emphasises the surprisingly widespread influence of the exotic A. mellifera. Finally, our study and a worldwide review of the literature on the pollination of mangroves reveal that the pollination biology of other mangrove systems requires similar scrutiny.  相似文献