Regional earth system modeling: review and future directions          下载免费PDF全文

Filippo GIORGI  GAO Xue-Jie 《大气和海洋科学快报》2018,(2)

耦合区域地球系统模式(RESM)现在仍处于早期的发展阶段,在本文中,我们对其近期相关进展进行了回顾。到目前为止,已经开发出了耦合的区域大气–海洋–海冰、大气–气溶胶和大气–生物圈模式,但总体它们仅在有限的区域得到应用,需要更多的工作来评估其在更多区域的可移植性。我们认为RESM发展中的未来挑战,是在大气、海洋、冰冻圈、生物圈、化学圈以外,同时将人类及其活动成分以完全相互作用的方式引入进来。  相似文献   

Performance of RegCM4 over Major River Basins in China     

Xuejie GAO  Ying SHI  Zhenyu HAN  Meili WANG  Jia WU  Dongfeng ZHANG  Ying XU  Filippo GIORGI 《大气科学进展》2017,34(4):441-455

A long-term simulation for the period 1990–2010 is conducted with the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model(RegCM4), driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km. The Community Land Model(CLM) is used to describe land surface processes, with updates in the surface parameters,including the land cover and surface emissivity. The simulation is compared against observations to evaluate the model performance in reproducing the present day climatology and interannual variability over the 10 main river basins in China,with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are also considered in the model assessment. Results show that the model reproduces the present day climatology over China and its main river basins, with better performances in June–July–August compared to December–January–February(DJF).In DJF, we find a warm bias at high latitudes, underestimated precipitation in the south, and overestimated precipitation in the north. The model in general captures the observed interannual variability, with greater skill for temperature. We also find an underestimation of heavy precipitation events in eastern China, and an underestimation of consecutive dry days in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau. Similar biases for both mean climatology and extremes are found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis, indicating the difficulties for climate models in simulating extreme monsoon climate events over East Asia.  相似文献   

The role of ENSO and PDO in variability of winter precipitation over North America from twenty first century CMIP5 projections     

Ramón Fuentes-Franco  Filippo Giorgi  Erika Coppola  Fred Kucharski 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(9-10):3259-3277

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Landslide detection in the Himalayas using machine learning algorithms and U-Net     

Meena  Sansar Raj  Soares  Lucas Pedrosa  Grohmann  Carlos H.  van Westen  Cees  Bhuyan  Kushanav  Singh  Ramesh P.  Floris  Mario  Catani  Filippo 《Landslides》2022,19(5):1209-1229

Landslides - Event-based landslide inventories are essential sources to broaden our understanding of the causal relationship between triggering events and the occurring landslides. Moreover,...  相似文献   

Exploring a landslide inventory created by automated web data mining: the case of Italy     

Franceschini  Rachele  Rosi  Ascanio  Catani  Filippo  Casagli  Nicola 《Landslides》2022,19(4):841-853

Landslides - Nowadays, several systems to set up landslide inventories exist although they rarely rely on automated or real-time updates. Mass media can provide reliable info about natural hazard...  相似文献   

High-fidelity broadband prediction of regional seismic response: a hybrid coupling of physics-based synthetic simulation and empirical Green functions     

Castro-Cruz  David  Gatti  Filippo  Lopez-Caballero  Fernando 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(2):1997-2031

Natural Hazards - The prediction of the seismic response of critical structures is highly sensitive to many aspects, among which the earthquake source and the geological setting are prominent. The...  相似文献   

Extension and Intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century     

Sara A. Rauscher  Filippo Giorgi  Noah S. Diffenbaugh  Anji Seth 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(5):551-571

Recent global-scale analyses of the CMIP3 model projections for the twenty-first century indicate a strong, coherent decreased precipitation response over Central America and the Intra-America Seas region. We explore this regional response and examine the models’ skill in representing present-day climate over this region. For much of Central America, the annual cycle of precipitation is characterized by a rainy season that extends from May to October with a period of reduced precipitation in July and August called the mid-summer drought. A comparison of the climate of the twentieth century simulations (20c3m) with observations over the period 1961–1990 shows that nearly all models underestimate precipitation over Central America, due in part to an underestimation of sea surface temperatures over the tropical North Atlantic and an excessively smooth representation of regional topographical features. However, many of the models capture the mid-summer drought. Differences between the A1B scenario (2061–2090) and 20c3m (1961–1990) simulations show decreased precipitation in the future climate scenario, mostly in June and July, just before and during the onset of the mid-summer drought. We thus hypothesize that the simulated twenty-first century drying over Central America represents an early onset and intensification of the mid-summer drought. An analysis of circulation changes indicates that the westward expansion and intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high associated with the mid-summer drought occurs earlier in the A1B simulations, along with stronger low-level easterlies. The eastern Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone is also located further southward in the scenario simulations. There are some indications that these changes could be forced by ENSO-like warming of the tropical eastern Pacific and increased land–ocean heating contrasts over the North American continent.  相似文献   

Monitoring, prediction, and early warning using ground-based radar interferometry   总被引：11，自引：8，他引：3  

Nicola Casagli  Filippo Catani  Chiara Del Ventisette  Guido Luzi 《Landslides》2010,7(3):291-301

In order to define adequate prevention measures and to manage landslide emergencies, real-time monitoring is required. This paper presents two different applications of the remote sensing technique: the ground-based synthetic aperture radar interferometry, here proposed as a monitoring and early warning support for slope instability. Data acquisitions carried out through a ground-based synthetic aperture radar interferometer, operating in K_u band, installed in front of the observed slopes, are discussed. Two case studies, based on the use of the same apparatus (formerly developed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission and by Ellegi-LiSALab srl), are reported: the first one concerns the monitoring of a large landslide, named Ruinon (Valfurva, Italy). The second one deals with the monitoring of the NW unstable slope in the Stromboli island aimed to implementing an early warning system. Acquired interferometric data are processed to provide displacements and velocity maps of the monitored area. The monitoring services ongoing on the Ruinon landslide and on Stromboli demonstrate the capability of this technique to operate in different operative settings (i.e., different phenomena and geological framework) and for different aims (monitoring for prevention, early warning, and emergency assessment). This methodology has also been proved by national and regional authorities of civil protection in order to provide a real-time monitoring for emergency management.  相似文献   

Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming     

Joan Ballester  Xavier Rodó  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(7-8):1191-1205

Daily output from the PRUDENCE ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe is used to show that the increasing intensity of the most damaging summer heat waves over Central Europe is mostly due to higher base summer temperatures. In this context, base temperature is defined as the mean of the seasonal cycle component for those calendar days when regional heat waves occur and is close, albeit not identical, to the mean temperature for July–August. Although 36–47% of future Central Europe July and August days at the end of the twenty-first century are projected to be extreme according to the present day climatology, specific changes in deseasonalized heat wave anomalies are projected to be relatively small. Instead, changes in summer base temperatures appear much larger, clearly identifiable and of the same order of magnitude as changes in the whole magnitude of heat waves. Our results bear important consequences for the predictability of central European heat wave intensity under global warming conditions.  相似文献   

Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Sara A. Rauscher  Erika Coppola  Claudio Piani  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):685-711

We analyze a set of nine regional climate model simulations for the period 1961–2000 performed at 25 and 50 km horizontal grid spacing over a European domain in order to determine the effects of horizontal resolution on the simulation of precipitation. All of the models represent the seasonal mean spatial patterns and amount of precipitation fairly well. Most models exhibit a tendency to over-predict precipitation, resulting in a domain-average total bias for the ensemble mean of about 20% in winter (DJF) and less than 10% in summer (JJA) at both resolutions, although this bias could be artificially enhanced by the lack of a gauge correction in the observations. A majority of the models show increased precipitation at 25 km relative to 50 km over the oceans and inland seas in DJF, JJA, and ANN (annual average), although the response is strongest during JJA. The ratio of convective precipitation to total precipitation decreases over land for most models at 25 km. In addition, there is an increase in interannual variability in many of the models at 25 km grid spacing. Comparison with gridded observations indicates that a majority of models show improved skill in simulating both the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of precipitation at 25 km compared to 50 km during the summer months, but not in winter or on an annual mean basis. Model skill at higher resolution in simulating the spatial and temporal character of seasonal precipitation is found especially for Great Britain. This geographic dependence of the increased skill suggests that observed data of sufficient density are necessary to capture fine-scale climate signals. As climate models increase their horizontal resolution, it is thus a key priority to produce high quality fine scale observations for model evaluation.  相似文献