Analysis of precipitation extremes with the assessment of regional climate models over the Willamette River Basin,USA     

Andrew Halmstad  Mohammad Reza Najafi  Hamid Moradkhani 《水文研究》2013,27(18):2579-2590

An appropriate, rapid and effective response to extreme precipitation and any potential flood disaster is essential. Providing an accurate estimate of future changes to such extreme events due to climate change are crucial for responsible decision making in flood risk management given the predictive uncertainties. The objective of this article is to provide a comparison of dynamically downscaled climate models simulations from multiple model including 12 different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM), which offers an abundance of additional data sets. The three major aspects of this study include the bias correction of RCM scenarios, the application of a newly developed performance metric and the extreme value analysis of future precipitation. The dynamically downscaled data sets reveal a positive overall bias that is removed through quantile mapping bias correction method. The added value index was calculated to evaluate the models' simulations. Results from this metric reveal that not all of the RCMs outperform their host GCMs in terms of correlation skill. Extreme value theory was applied to both historic, 1980–1998, and future, 2038–2069, daily data sets to provide estimates of changes to 2‐ and 25‐year return level precipitation events. The generalized Pareto distribution was used for this purpose. The Willamette River basin was selected as the study region for analysis because of its topographical variability and tendency for significant precipitation. The extreme value analysis results showed significant differences between model runs for both historical and future periods with considerable spatial variability in precipitation extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Paleo‐Proterozoic High Heat Production Richardson Granite,Great Bear Magmatic Zone,Northwest Territories,Canada: Source of U for Port Radium?     

Alireza K. SOMARIN  A. Hamid MUMIN 《Resource Geology》2012,62(3):227-242

Airborne radiometric survey and field studies outlined a large, elongate, high‐level plutonic suite within the Richardson pluton south of the Contact Lake Belt in the Great Bear Magmatic Zone, Northwest Territories, Canada. In terms of content of radioactive elements, the Richardson pluton is composed of two distinct granite types, low heat production (LHP) and high heat production (HHP). Uranium content in the LHP and HHP granites ranges from 3.0 to 4.9 ppm and 6.5 to 24.6 ppm, respectively, showing similarity of the LHP granite to average granites. Geochemical studies indicate that there is a genetic relationship between these two types of granite; the LHP granite was the early product of magma crystallization, whereas the HHP granite is the result of extensive crystal fractionation of biotite, plagioclase and apatite. The presence of magmatic fluorite in granite suggests that high fluorine content lowered the liquidus temperature of magma causing lower temperature fractionation during ascent to high crustal levels, which increased U and Th concentrations in the resultant HHP granite. Weak U mineralization occurs locally as discontinuous quartz ± hematite ± pitchblende veins and veinlets within the HHP granite. Stronger U mineralization (U ± Ag ± Ni ± Co ± Cu) occurred in the past‐producing Contact Lake and Port Radium deposits. It appears that such mineralization may have had a spatial and temporal genetic‐paragenetic relationship with the HHP granite.  相似文献   

伊犁河流域土壤盐渍化对地下水特征的响应     

麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜  海米提·依米提  祖皮艳木·买买提  许宁 《水文》2012,32(6):14-20

分析土壤盐渍化与地下水特征之间的关系对区域水土资源可持续利用具有重要意义,同时也为地下水资源管理的科学化和现代化提供技术支撑。利用136个土壤剖面的540个土壤样品及相应地下水观测数据,采用对数正态分布模型,对伊犁河流域地下水埋深、矿化度对土壤盐渍化的影响进行了研究,计算分析了防止土壤盐渍化的地下水临界深度。结果表明:研究区表层土壤含盐量随地下水矿化度的增加呈指数增加的趋势;各土层含盐量随地下水埋深的增加呈对数下降的趋势;当地下水矿化度介于1~3g/L、3~6g/L、6~10g/L与1~10g/L时,盐渍化土壤出现频率峰值所对应的地下水埋深分别为1.44 m、1.65m、1.83m与1.63m。为了防止土壤次生盐渍化,当地下水矿化度介于1~3g/L、3~6g/L、6~10g/L与1~10g/L时,地下水埋深分别控制在2.06m、2.49m、2.66m与2.24m以上。地下水矿化度越大,可在较大的地下水埋深范围内发生土壤盐渍化。对数正态分布模型分析结果与对数拟合曲线分析结果基本一致,说明研究结果是可靠的。地下水埋深2.5m可作为防止土壤盐渍化的临界地下水埋深。  相似文献   

Ion acoustic solitary waves in a weakly relativistic plasma with <Emphasis Type="Italic">q</Emphasis>-nonextensive electrons and thermal positrons     

Hamid Reza Pakzad 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,334(2):337-343

Nonlinear ion acoustic solitary waves (IASWs) are addressed in a weakly relativistic plasma consisting of cold ion fluid, q-nonextensive electron velocity distribution and Boltzmann distributed positron. The Korteweg-de Vries- (KdV) equation is derived by reductive perturbation method. We investigate the effect of nonextensive electrons on solitary waves in this medium. It is found that only compressive solitons can be appeared in the existence of nonextensive electrons. It is shown that the structure of soliton depend sensitively on the q-nonextensive parameter.  相似文献   

Frequency-interval control reconfigurability for automated processes     

Hamid Reza Shaker 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):1021-1027

Faults in automated systems will often result in undesired behavior and shut-down of the processes. The consequences of these could be damage to the plant, to personnel and resources, or even to the environment. In particular, in the case of natural disasters, faults are often inevitable. The objective of the methods for fault-tolerant control (FTC) is to prevent simple faults turning into severe failure. Therefore, FTC methods help to increase plant availability and to reduce the risk of safety hazards. However, these methods cannot be effective if sufficient redundancy does not exist in the system. A measure for control reconfigurability which reveals the level of redundancy in connection with feedback control is proposed in this paper. The proposed control reconfigurability measure is developed in particular for many applications in which one is interested in analysis and control within a frequency-interval. Compared to the other counterparts, the proposed measure encodes more information on the level of redundancy within the frequency-interval of interest. An illustrative example is given to show the computation of frequency-interval control reconfigurability and its relevance to redundant actuating capabilities in the models.  相似文献   

GIS-based groundwater spring potential assessment and mapping in the Birjand Township,southern Khorasan Province,Iran   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

Zohre Sadat Pourtaghi  Hamid Reza Pourghasemi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(3):643-662

Three statistical models—frequency ratio (FR), weights-of-evidence (WofE) and logistic regression (LR)—produced groundwater-spring potential maps for the Birjand Township, southern Khorasan Province, Iran. In total, 304 springs were identified in a field survey and mapped in a geographic information system (GIS), out of which 212 spring locations were randomly selected to be modeled and the remaining 92 were used for the model evaluation. The effective factors—slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), slope length (LS), plan curvature, lithology, land use, and distance to river, road, fault—were derived from the spatial database. Using these effective factors, groundwater spring potential was calculated using the three models, and the results were plotted in ArcGIS. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for spring potential maps and the area under the curve (AUC) was computed. The final results indicated that the FR model (AUC?=?79.38 %) performed better than the WofE (AUC?=?75.69 %) and LR (AUC?=?63.71 %) models. Sensitivity and factor analyses concluded that the bivariate statistical index model (i.e. FR) can be used as a simple tool in the assessment of groundwater spring potential when a sufficient number of data are obtained.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

S. Samadi  Catherine A. M. E. Wilson  Hamid Moradkhani 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):673-690

Regression-based statistical downscaling is a method broadly used to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models. Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainties linked with climatic variables is essential to climate impact studies. This study presents a procedure to characterize the uncertainty in regression-based statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature over a highly vulnerable area (semiarid catchment) in the west of Iran, based on two downscaling models: a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Biases in mean, variance, and wet/dry spells are estimated for downscaled data using vigorous statistical tests for 30 years of observed and downscaled daily precipitation and temperature data taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis predictors for the years of 1961 to 1990. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. In daily precipitation, downscaling uncertainties were evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their confidence intervals, cumulative frequency distributions of monthly mean of daily precipitation, and the distributions of monthly wet and dry days for observed and modeled daily precipitation. Results showed that uncertainty in downscaled precipitation is high, but simulation of daily temperature can reproduce extreme events accurately. Finally, this study shows that the SDSM is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % confidence level, while the ANN model is the least capable in this respect. This study attempts to test uncertainties of regression-based statistical downscaling techniques in a semiarid area and therefore contributes to an improvement of the quality of predictions of climate change impact assessment in regions of this type.  相似文献   

Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia     

Lawal Billa  Hamid Assilzadeh  Shattri Mansor  Ahmed R. Mahmud  Abdul H. Ghazali 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2011,3(3):309-317

Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R² = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R² = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R² = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.  相似文献   

CFD, system-based and EFD study of ship dynamic instability events: Surf-riding, periodic motion, and broaching   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hamid Sadat-Hosseini  Frederick Stern  Naoya Umeda  Shinya Yamamura 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(1):88-110

CFD and system-based simulation are used to predict broaching, surf-riding, and periodic motion for the ONR Tumblehome model, including captive and free model test validation studies. CFD shows close agreement with EFD for calm water resistance, static heel (except for sway force and yaw moment), and static drift (except for roll moment). CFD predictions of static heel in following waves also compare well with EFD except for surge force, sway force, and pitch angle. Froude-Krylov calculations of wave-induced surge force in following waves provides good agreement for high Froude number, but significantly overestimates for Froude number less than 0.2. On the other hand, CFD successfully reproduces the reduction of the wave-induced surge force near Froude number 0.2, probably because CFD can capture the 3D wave pattern. CFD free model simulations are performed for several speeds and headings and validated for the first time for surf-riding, broaching, and periodic motions. System-based simulations are carried out based on inputs from EFD, CFD, and Froude-Krylov for a dense grid of speeds and headings to predict the instability map, which were found to produce fairly similar results.  相似文献   

Conversion Gain and Interpixel Capacitance of Cmos Hybrid Focal Plane Arrays     

Gert Finger  James W. Beletic  Reinhold Dorn  Manfred Meyer  Leander Mehrgan  Alan F. M. Moorwood  Joerg Stegmeier 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,19(1-3):135-147

The conversion gain of optical and infrared focal plane CMOS hybrid arrays is a fundamental parameter, whose value computes into the derivation of other parameters characterizing the performance of a detector. The widespread “noise squared versus signal” method used to obtain the conversion gain can overestimate the nodal capacitance of the detector pixel by more than 20% for infrared arrays and by more than 100% for Si-PIN diode arrays. This is because this method does not take account of the capacitive coupling between neighboring pixels. A simple technique has been developed to measure the nodal capacitance directly by comparing the voltage change of an external calibrated capacitor with the voltage change on the nodal capacitor of the detector pixel. The method is elaborated in detail and has been verified with a Si-PIN diode array hybridized to a Hawaii-2RG multiplexer using an Fe ⁵⁵ X-ray source. It is also in good agreement with a stochastic method based on 2D autocorrelation.  相似文献