Predicting recruitment from stock size without the mediation of a functional relation     

Evans  Geoffrey T.; Rice  Jake C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1988,44(2):111-122

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The dual role of indicators in optimal fisheries management strategies     

Rice  Jake C.; Rivard  Denis 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):775-778

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Statistical Insights Regarding Fully Softened Shear Strength     

Trinidad Gonz&#;lez  Yuderka  Schaefer  Vernon R.  Rollins  Derrick K. 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(2):1155-1171

The fully softened shear strength (FSS) concept is a practical approximation of the mobilized drained shear strength of first-time slides in stiff-fissured clays. There has been a recent increase in interest in measurement and estimation of FSS secant friction angle (FSS-ϕ′sec) to develop correlations for preliminary design and cost approximation. However, such correlations do not help in understanding the cause and effect relationship between soil properties and FSS-ϕ′sec. In this study, a laboratory database containing FSS-ϕ′sec values (output) and soil properties (inputs) of several overconsolidated clays is used to develop a predictive model for FSS-ϕ′sec (output or response). The goal is to detect which inputs from the whole parameter space dominate the response while creating an accurate prediction tool to provide statistical insights regarding the FSS-ϕ′sec. The proposed methodology is used to assess and quantify the relationships among variables, estimate testing device effects on FSS-ϕ′sec, and analyze the danger of extrapolation due to model constraints. The applicability of the predicted FSS-ϕ′sec is also evaluated and compared. Recommendations regarding the studied prediction tools for slope stability design in stiff-fissured clays are provided.

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In situ cosmogenic 10Be production-rate calibration from the Southern Alps,New Zealand     

A.E. Putnam  J.M. Schaefer  D.J.A. Barrell  M. Vandergoes  G.H. Denton  M.R. Kaplan  R.C. Finkel  R. Schwartz  B.M. Goehring  S.E. Kelley 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(4):392-409

We present a ¹⁰Be production-rate calibration derived from an early Holocene debris-flow deposit at about 1000 m above sea level in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand, in the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Ten radiocarbon ages on macrofossils from a soil horizon buried by the deposit date the deposit to 9690 ± 50 calendar years before AD2008. Surface ¹⁰Be concentrations of seven large boulders partially embedded in the stable surface of the deposit are tightly distributed, yielding a standard deviation of ～2%. Conversion of the ¹⁰Be measurements to sea level/high-latitude values using each of five standard scaling methods indicates ¹⁰Be production rates of 3.84 ± 0.08, 3.87 ± 0.08, 3.83 ± 0.08, 4.15 ± 0.09, and 3.74 ± 0.08 atoms g^?1 a^?1, relative to the ‘07KNSTD’ ¹⁰Be AMS standard, and including only the local time-integrated production-rate uncertainties. When including a sea level high-latitude scaling uncertainty the overall error is ～2.5% (1σ) for each rate. To test the regional applicability of this production-rate calibration, we measured ¹⁰Be concentrations in a set of nearby moraines deposited before 18 060 ± 200 years before AD2008. The ¹⁰Be ages are only consistent with minimum-limiting ¹⁴C age data when calculated using the new production rates. This also suggests that terrestrial in situ cosmogenic-nuclide production did not change significantly from Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene time in New Zealand. Our production rates agree well with those of a recent calibration study from northeastern North America, but are 12–14% lower than other commonly adopted values. The production-rate values presented here can be used elsewhere in New Zealand for rock surfaces exposed during or since the last glacial period.  相似文献   

A reevaluation of in situ cosmogenic 3He production rates     

Brent M. Goehring  Mark D. Kurz  Greg Balco  Joerg M. Schaefer  Joseph Licciardi  Nathaniel Lifton 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(4):410-418

³He is among the most commonly measured terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, but an incomplete understanding of the ³He production rate has limited robust interpretation of cosmogenic ³He concentrations. We use new measurements of cosmogenic ³He in olivine from a well-dated lava flow at Tabernacle Hill, Utah, USA, to calibrate the local ³He production rate. The new ³He measurements (n = 8) show excellent internal consistency and yield a sea level high latitude (SLHL) production rate of 123 ± 4 at g^?1 yr^?1 following the Lal (1991)/Stone (2000) scaling model [Lal, D., 1991. Cosmic ray labeling of erosion surfaces: in situ nuclide production rates and erosion models. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 104, 424–439.; Stone, J.O., 2000. Air pressure and cosmogenic isotope production. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105, 23753–23759.]. We incorporate the new measurements from Tabernacle Hill in a compilation of all published production rate determinations, characterizing the mean global SLHL production rates (e.g. 120 ± 9.4 at g^?1 yr^?1 with Lal (1991)/Stone (2000)). The internal consistency of the global ³He production rate dataset is as good as the other commonly used cosmogenic nuclides. Additionally, ³He production rates in olivine and pyroxene agree within experimental error. The ³He production rates are implemented in an age and erosion rate calculator, forming a new module of the CRONUS-Earth web-based calculator, a simple platform for cosmogenic nuclide data interpretation [Balco, G., Stone, J., Lifton, N.A., and Dunai, T.J., 2008. A complete and easily accessible means of calculating surface exposure ages or erosion rates from ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al measurements. Quaternary Geochronology, 3, 174–195.]. The ³He calculator is available online at http://www.cronuscalculators.nmt.edu/.  相似文献   

A non-traditional approach to the analysis of flood hazard for dams     

Zoran Micovic  Desmond N. D. Hartford  Melvin G. Schaefer  Bruce L. Barker 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(2):559-581

The traditional and still prevailing approach to characterization of flood hazards to dams is the inflow design flood (IDF). The IDF, defined either deterministically or probabilistically, is necessary for sizing a dam, its discharge facilities and reservoir storage. However, within the dam safety risk informed decision framework, the IDF does not carry much relevance, no matter how accurately it is characterized. In many cases, the probability of the reservoir inflow tells us little about the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, the reservoir inflow and its associated probability of occurrence is modified by the interplay of a number of factors (reservoir storage, reservoir operating rules and various operational faults and natural disturbances) on its way to becoming the reservoir outflow and corresponding peak level—the two parameters that represent hydrologic hazard acting upon the dam. To properly manage flood risk, it is essential to change approach to flood hazard analysis for dam safety from the currently prevailing focus on reservoir inflows and instead focus on reservoir outflows and corresponding reservoir levels. To demonstrate these points, this paper presents stochastic simulation of floods on a cascade system of three dams and shows progression from exceedance probabilities of reservoir inflow to exceedance probabilities of peak reservoir level depending on initial reservoir level, storage availability, reservoir operating rules and availability of discharge facilities on demand. The results show that the dam overtopping is more likely to be caused by a combination of a smaller flood and a system component failure than by an extreme flood on its own.  相似文献   

Source Apportionment and Geostatistics: An Outstanding Combination for Describing Metals Distribution in Soil          下载免费PDF全文

Kristin Schaefer  Jürgen W. Einax 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2016,44(7):877-884

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Water Treatment Technologies for PFAS: The Next Generation          下载免费PDF全文

John Horst  Jeff McDonough  Ian Ross  Michael Dickson  Jonathan Miles  Jake Hurst  Peter Storch 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2018,38(2):13-23

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Intertidal boulder transport: A proposed methodology adopting Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology to quantify storm induced boulder mobility     

Linley John Hastewell  Martin Schaefer  Malcolm Bray  Robert Inkpen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(3):681-698

Boulder transport is an area of growing interest to coastal scientists as a means of improving our understanding of the complex interactions between extreme wave activity and the evolution of rocky coasts. However, our knowledge of the response of intertidal boulder deposits to contemporary storm events remains limited due to a lack of quantifiable field-based evidence. We address this by presenting a methodology incorporating Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tagging and Differential Global Positioning Navigation Satellite System (DGNSS) technology to monitor and accurately quantify the displacement of RFID tagged boulders resulting from storm wave activity. Based on preliminary findings we highlight the suitability of the technology and methodology to better understand the spatial and temporal response of intertidal boulders to contemporary storm events. We inserted RFID tags in 104 limestone boulders (intermediate axes from 0.27 to 2.85 m) across a range of morphogenic settings at two sites on the intertidal shore platforms at Bembridge, Isle of Wight (UK). Fifteen topographic surveys were conducted between July 2015 and May 2017 to relocate and record tagged boulder locations (tag recovery rate: 91%). The relocated boulder coordinate data from both sites identified 164 individual transport events in 63% of the tagged boulder array amounting to 184.6 m of transport, including the displacement of a boulder weighing more than 10 tonnes. Incidents of boulder quarrying and overturning during transport were also recorded, demonstrating that despite the relatively sheltered location, intertidal boulders are created and regularly transported under moderate storm conditions. This suggests that contemporary storm events have a greater propensity to mobilise boulders in the intertidal range than has previously been realised. Consequently, by documenting our methodology we provide guidance to others and promote further use of RFID technology to enable new hypotheses on boulder transport to be tested in a range of field settings and wave regimes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A GIS-based approach to site vegetated buffer strips for erosion control within an agricultural catchment in southern England     

Cat Hudson  Harold Lovell  Alastair W. Pearson  Martin Schaefer  Philip J. Soar 《水文研究》2024,38(5):e15165

Agricultural soil erosion is largely attributed to arable intensification and increased mechanization. Runoff from arable land and intensively managed grassland transports sediment and contaminants across the landscape and into watercourses, causing crop loss, land degradation, and water quality issues. One low-cost and low-maintenance nature-based mitigation approach is the implementation of vegetated buffer strips (VBS): grassland sited along field margins to trap sediment and contaminants, reducing transportation and diffuse pollution rates. GIS modelling using remotely sensed landscape indices and land parcel data can provide an efficient means of identifying priority areas for intervention at sub-catchment or farm system scales. We develop and test a scalable runoff risk model in the lower Rother catchment, West Sussex. The model uses the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) applied to satellite images as an erodibility proxy and identifies locations along pathways that are conceivably at greatest risk of sediment accumulation and transfer, guided by field observations. We assess current and historical field boundaries near high-risk locations, evaluating the potential capacity of their margins to contribute to runoff risk reduction using an innovative ranking system. Recommendations are made for VBS implementation and the value of historical field boundary and margin restoration is discussed. Our method offers a rapid approach with minimal data requirements to identify high-risk sediment runoff locations and priority sites for intervention. The tool has the potential to guide decision-makers responsible for targeting and implementing soil erosion and runoff control measures such as VBS, while also maximizing agri-environmental and cultural benefits.  相似文献