Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Perrine Hamel  Andrew J. Guswa  Jake Sahl  Lu Zhang 《水文研究》2017,31(22):3844-3858

Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments.  相似文献   

LZIFU: an emission-line fitting toolkit for integral field spectroscopy data     

I-Ting Ho  Anne M. Medling  Brent Groves  Jeffrey A. Rich  David S. N. Rupke  Elise Hampton  Lisa J. Kewley  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Scott M. Croom  Samuel Richards  Adam L. Schaefer  Rob Sharp  Sarah M. Sweet 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2016,361(9):280

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A revised orbital ephemeris for HAT-P-9b     

Jason A. Dittmann  Laird M. CloseLouis J. Scuderi  Jake TurnerPeter C. Stephenson 《New Astronomy》2012,17(4):438-441

We present here three transit observations of HAT-P-9b taken on 14 February 2010 and 05 April 2010 UT from the University of Arizona’s 1.55 m Kuiper telescope on Mt. Bigelow. Our two light curves were obtained in the Arizona-I filter for all our observations, and underwent the same reduction process. Both transits occurred approximately 24 min earlier than expected from the ephemeris of Shporer et al. (2009). However, due to the large time span between our observed transits and those of Shporer et al. (2009), a 6.5 s shift downwards in orbital period from the value of Shporer et al. (2009) is sufficient to explain all available transit data. We find a new period of 3.922814 ± 0.000002 days for HAT-P-9b, an order of magnitude more precise than previous measurements, with no evidence for significant nonlinearities in the transit period.  相似文献   

Selection Assistance for the Evaluation of Geoconstruction Technologies for Transportation Applications     

S. C. Douglas  V. R. Schaefer  R. R. Berg 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2012,30(5):1231-1247

A new comprehensive, web-based information system summarizes forty-six geoconstruction technologies, or ground improvement methods, applicable to transportation infrastructure from the following areas: geosynthetics, geotextiles, ground improvement, grouting, slope stabilization, soil reinforcement, soil stabilization, and alternative/recycled materials. Selection assistance was developed as part of the overall information system to aid the user in identifying potential geoconstruction technologies for a project-specific set of conditions. A knowledge base to assist a user in evaluating the current status of each technology with regard to the U.S. practice and the potential applications for each technology is described in detail. Selection assistance includes qualitative ratings for each technology, a listing of the technologies sorted by classification or desired improvement, and a dynamic, Interactive Selection tool. After assisting the user in identifying a short list of potential technologies, the user can access the technology specific data in the information system to further evaluate the technologies. Engineers, planners, and owners will be able to utilize the entire information system to assess the feasibility of technologies to address project-specific requirements and constraints.  相似文献   

A GIS‐based Vehicle Mobility Estimator for Operational Contexts     

Audrey Hohmann  Gilles Grandjean  Vincent Mardhel  Gilles Schaefer  Nicolas Desramaut 《Transactions in GIS》2013,17(1):78-95

A vehicle mobility estimator has been developed to produce decision aid maps for projecting civil or military forces on operational theatres. Based on the exploitation of classical geographical sources (e.g. digital elevation models, optical images, and vector databases) and thematic sources (e.g. climate, meteorological, pedological and land cover databases), the system computes speed maps for different kinds of vehicles moving both on‐road and off‐road. Such computations are realized through a ground‐vehicle interaction module that estimates the vehicle performance from experimental results, numerical simulations and empirical relationships. The system's architecture is built using a GIS interface that manages the data, the computation and the presentation layers. An operational version of this tool has been tested and validated on several operational theatres in France and in northern Africa. The results show good agreement between the predicted mobility performance of various vehicles and those observed on the field. A case study is presented to illustrate the mobility maps and demonstrate their relevance in the decision‐making chain depending on different climate contexts. A short application to itinerary optimization is presented as a promising future application.  相似文献   

Relative timing of last glacial maximum and late-glacial events in the central tropical Andes     

Gordon R.M. Bromley  Joerg M. Schaefer  Gisela Winckler  Brenda L. Hall  Claire E. Todd  Kurt M. Rademaker 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(23-24):2514-2526

Whether or not tropical climate fluctuated in synchrony with global events during the Late Pleistocene is a key problem in climate research. However, the timing of past climate changes in the tropics remains controversial, with a number of recent studies reporting that tropical ice age climate is out of phase with global events. Here, we present geomorphic evidence and an in-situ cosmogenic ³He surface-exposure chronology from Nevado Coropuna, southern Peru, showing that glaciers underwent at least two significant advances during the Late Pleistocene prior to Holocene warming. Comparison of our glacial-geomorphic map at Nevado Coropuna to mid-latitude reconstructions yields a striking similarity between Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late-Glacial sequences in tropical and temperate regions.Exposure ages constraining the maximum and end of the older advance at Nevado Coropuna range between 24.5 and 25.3 ka, and between 16.7 and 21.1 ka, respectively, depending on the cosmogenic production rate scaling model used. Similarly, the mean age of the younger event ranges from 10 to 13 ka. This implies that (1) the LGM and the onset of deglaciation in southern Peru occurred no earlier than at higher latitudes and (2) that a significant Late-Glacial event occurred, most likely prior to the Holocene, coherent with the glacial record from mid and high latitudes. The time elapsed between the end of the LGM and the Late-Glacial event at Nevado Coropuna is independent of scaling model and matches the period between the LGM termination and Late-Glacial reversal in classic mid-latitude records, suggesting that these events in both tropical and temperate regions were in phase.  相似文献   

Late glacial and holocene 10Be production rates for western Norway     

Brent M. Goehring  Øystein Strand Lohne  Jan Mangerud  John Inge Svendsen  Richard Gyllencreutz  Joerg Schaefer  Robert Finkel 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):89-96

We present a new regional calibration of the ¹⁰Be production rate from two well‐dated surfaces in southern Norway: a rock avalanche with ¹⁴C‐dated wood and a precisely dated Younger Dryas moraine. Calculated ¹⁰Be production rates are 4.26 ± 0.13 and 4.65 ± 0.14 at g^?1 a^?1 for the Lal/Stone and Lifton scaling models, respectively. Our regional production rate for southern Norway is 5% lower than the canonical global ¹⁰Be production rate with lower uncertainties. Our ¹⁰Be production rate agrees with regional ¹⁰Be production rates from north‐eastern North America and New Zealand. The ¹⁰Be production rate estimate presented here can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of exposure‐dated ice‐marginal features, as well as other surfaces, in northern Europe. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Phase curves of nine Trojan asteroids over a wide range of phase angles     

Martha W. Schaefer  Bradley E. Schaefer  Suzanne W. Tourtellotte 《Icarus》2010,207(2):699-713

We have observed well-sampled phase curves for nine Trojan asteroids in B-, V-, and I-bands. These were constructed from 778 magnitudes taken with the 1.3-m telescope on Cerro Tololo as operated by a service observer for the SMARTS consortium. Over our typical phase range of 0.2-10°, we find our phase curves to be adequately described by a linear model, for slopes of 0.04-0.09 mag/° with average uncertainty less than 0.02 mag/°. (The one exception, 51378 (2001 AT33), has a formally negative slope of −0.02 ± 0.01 mag/°.) These slopes are too steep for the opposition surge mechanism to be shadow-hiding (SH), so we conclude that the dominant surge mechanism must be coherent backscattering (CB). In a detailed comparison of surface properties (including surge slope, B-R color, and albedo), we find that the Trojans have surface properties similar to the P and C class asteroids prominent in the outer main belt, yet they have significantly different surge properties (at a confidence level of 99.90%). This provides an imperfect argument against the traditional idea that the Trojans were formed around Jupiter’s orbit. We also find no overlap in Trojan properties with either the main belt asteroids or with the small icy bodies in the outer Solar System. Importantly, we find that the Trojans are indistinguishable from other small bodies in the outer Solar System that have lost their surface ices (such as the gray Centaurs, gray Scattered Disk Objects, and dead comets). Thus, we find strong support for the idea that the Trojans originally formed as icy bodies in the outer Solar System, were captured into their current orbits during the migration of the gas giant planets, and subsequently lost all their surface ices.  相似文献   

The extreme physical properties of the CoRoT-7b super-Earth     

A. Léger  O. Grasset  F. Codron  P. Barge  P. Cance  F. Catalano  O. Demangeon  S. Ferraz-Mello  J.-M. Grießmeier  G. Libourel  S.N. Raymond  D. Rouan  L. Schaefer  P.A. Schuller  F. Selsis  C. Sotin 《Icarus》2011,213(1):1-11

The search for rocky exoplanets plays an important role in our quest for extra-terrestrial life. Here, we discuss the extreme physical properties possible for the first characterised rocky super-Earth, CoRoT-7b (R_pl = 1.58 ± 0.10 R_Earth, M_pl = 6.9 ± 1.2 M_Earth). It is extremely close to its star (a = 0.0171 AU = 4.48 R_st), with its spin and orbital rotation likely synchronised. The comparison of its location in the (M_pl, R_pl) plane with the predictions of planetary models for different compositions points to an Earth-like composition, even if the error bars of the measured quantities and the partial degeneracy of the models prevent a definitive conclusion. The proximity to its star provides an additional constraint on the model. It implies a high extreme-UV flux and particle wind, and the corresponding efficient erosion of the planetary atmosphere especially for volatile species including water. Consequently, we make the working hypothesis that the planet is rocky with no volatiles in its atmosphere, and derive the physical properties that result. As a consequence, the atmosphere is made of rocky vapours with a very low pressure (P ? 1.5 Pa), no cloud can be sustained, and no thermalisation of the planet is expected. The dayside is very hot (2474 ± 71 K at the sub-stellar point) while the nightside is very cold (50-75 K). The sub-stellar point is as hot as the tungsten filament of an incandescent bulb, resulting in the melting and distillation of silicate rocks and the formation of a lava ocean. These possible features of CoRoT-7b could be common to many small and hot planets, including the recently discovered Kepler-10b. They define a new class of objects that we propose to name “Lava-ocean planets”.  相似文献   

Implications of bias evolution on measurements of the integrated Sachs–Wolfe effect: errors and biases in parameter estimation     

Bjoern Malte Schaefer  Marian Douspis  Nabila Aghanim 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(2):925-932

The subject of this paper is a quantification of the impact of uncertainties in bias and bias evolution on the interpretation of measurements of the integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect, in particular on the estimation of cosmological parameters. We carry out a Fisher matrix analysis for quantifying the degeneracies between the parameters of a dark energy cosmology and bias evolution, for the combination of the PLANCK microwave sky survey with the EUCLID main galaxy sample, where bias evolution   b ( a ) = b ₀+ (1 − a ) b_a   is modelled with two parameters b ₀ and   b_a   . Using a realistic bias model introduces a characteristic suppression of the ISW spectrum on large angular scales, due to the altered distance-weighting functions. The errors in estimating cosmological parameters if the data with evolving bias is interpreted in the framework of cosmologies with constant bias are quantified in an extended Fisher formalism. We find that the best-fitting values of all parameters are shifted by an amount comparable to the statistical accuracy: the estimation bias in units of the statistical accuracy amounts to 1.19 for Ω_m, 0.27 for σ₈ and 0.72 for w for bias evolution with   b_a = 1  . Leaving   b_a   open as a free parameter deteriorates the statistical accuracy, in particular on Ω_m and w .  相似文献