A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

James D. Ford  Lea Berrang-Ford  Jaclyn Paterson 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):327-336

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Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations     

James D. Ford  Tristan Pearce  Jason Prno  Frank Duerden  Lea Berrang Ford  Tanya R. Smith  Maude Beaumier 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):399-415

A survey documenting how climate change is perceived and responded to by Canadian mine operations was administered to a random sample of practitioners working at mine sites across Canada. Key findings include: (1) Mines are sensitive to climatic hazards; (2) There is concern about climate change among mine practitioners, but the majority have not yet noticed climate change to be affecting operations; (3) Future climate change is expected to have negative impacts for mine operations; (4) Mines are responding to climate change mainly through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also through adaptation, although to a lesser degree; and (5) Knowledge of future climate change projections and impacts is limited, potentially constraining understanding of the nature of climate change risks. The survey compliments previous work documenting perceptions among upper level management on climate change in the Canadian mining industry. The results from both surveys are largely consistent, establishing that the mining sector perceives climate change as an emerging risk and is developing response options, but needs to invest more time and resources for adaptation to what are inevitable changes in climate. The results support the need for targeted in-depth research to assess the vulnerability of mining to climate change and to evaluate response options.  相似文献   

Climate uncertainties and their discontents: increasing the impact of assessments on public understanding of climate risks and choices     

Brenda Ekwurzel  Peter C. Frumhoff  James J. McCarthy 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):791-802

US public awareness of the reality and risks of human-caused climate change remains limited, despite strong evidence presented in the IPCC and other major climate assessments. One contributing factor may be that the immense collective effort to produce periodic climate assessments is typically not well matched with public communication and outreach efforts for these reports, leaving a vacuum to be filled by less authoritative sources. Print and online media coverage provides one metric of the US public reach of selected climate assessments between 2000 and 2010. The number of Lexis-Nexis articles for the search terms “climate change” or “global warming” within 14 days of each report’s release varied significantly over time with a peak occurring in 2007. When compared to background “chatter” relating to climate change, each assessment had widely diverse penetration in the US media (~4% for US National Climate Assessment in 2000; ~17% for Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment in 2004; ~19% and ~10% for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Working Group I and Working Group II respectively in 2007; ~4% for the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) assessment report in 2009; and ~5% for US National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices reports in 2010). We propose ways to improve the public reach of climate assessments, focusing in particular on approaches to more effectively characterize and communicate the role of uncertainty in human actions as distinct from other sources of uncertainty across the range of possible climate futures.  相似文献   

A Spatially-Analytical Scheme for Surface Temperatures and Conductive Heat Fluxes in Urban Canopy Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhi-Hua Wang  Elie Bou-Zeid  James A. Smith 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,138(2):171-193

In the urban environment, surface temperatures and conductive heat fluxes through solid media (roofs, walls, roads and vegetated surfaces) are of paramount importance for the comfort of residents (indoors) and for microclimatic conditions (outdoors). Fully discrete numerical methods are currently used to model heat transfer in these solid media in parametrisations of built surfaces commonly used in weather prediction models. These discrete methods usually use finite difference schemes in both space and time. We propose a spatially-analytical scheme where the temperature field and conductive heat fluxes are solved analytically in space. Spurious numerical oscillations due to temperature discontinuities at the sublayer interfaces can be avoided since the method does not involve spatial discretisation. The proposed method is compared to the fully discrete method for a test case of one-dimensional heat conduction with sinusoidal forcing. Subsequently, the analytical scheme is incorporated into the offline version of the current urban canopy model (UCM) used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the new UCM is validated against field measurements using a wireless sensor network and other supporting measurements over a suburban area under real-world conditions. Results of the comparison clearly show the advantage of the proposed scheme over the fully discrete model, particularly for more complicated cases.  相似文献   

Are we adapting to climate change?     

Lea Berrang-Ford  James D. Ford  Jaclyn Paterson   《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):25-33

Human systems will have to adapt to climate change. Understanding of the magnitude of the adaptation challenge at a global scale, however, is incomplete, constrained by a limited understanding of if and how adaptation is taking place. Here we develop and apply a methodology to track and characterize adaptation action; we apply these methods to the peer-reviewed, English-language literature. Our results challenge a number of common assumptions about adaptation while supporting others: (1) Considerable research on adaptation has been conducted yet the majority of studies report on vulnerability assessments and natural systems (or intentions to act), not adaptation actions. (2) Climate change is rarely the sole or primary motivator for adaptation action. (3) Extreme events are important adaptation stimuli across regions. (4) Proactive adaptation is the most commonly reported adaptive response, particularly in developed nations. (5) Adaptation action is more frequently reported in developed nations, with middle income countries underrepresented and low-income regions dominated by reports from a small number of countries. (6) There is limited reporting on adaptations being developed to take advantage of climate change or focusing on women, elderly, or children.  相似文献   

High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?     

Young-Kwon Lim  Lydia B. Stefanova  Steven C. Chan  Siegfried D. Schubert  James J. O��Brien 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1061-1080

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5° latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP/Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20?km resolution for 16 summer seasons (1990?C2005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20?km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93% (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92% (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.  相似文献   

Fisheries mismanagement     

O'Leary BC  Smart JC  Neale FC  Hawkins JP  Newman S  Milman AC  Roberts CM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(12):2642-2648

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.  相似文献   

Sedimentary Deposits from the 17 July 2006 Western Java Tsunami,Indonesia: Use of Grain Size Analyses to Assess Tsunami Flow Depth,Speed, and Traction Carpet Characteristics     

Andrew Moore  James Goff  Brian G. McAdoo  Hermann M. Fritz  Aditya Gusman  Nikos Kalligeris  Kenia Kalsum  Arif Susanto  Debora Suteja  Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1951-1961

The 2006 western Java tsunami deposited a discontinuous sheet of sand up to 20 cm thick, flooded coastal southern Java to a depth of at least 8 m and inundated up to 1 km inland. In most places the primarily heavy mineral sand sheet is normally graded, and in some it contains complex internal stratigraphy. Structures within the sand sheet probably record the passage of up to two individual waves, a point noted in eyewitness accounts. We studied the 2006 tsunami deposits in detail along a flow parallel transect about 750 m long, 15 km east of Cilacap. The tsunami deposit first becomes discernable from the underlying sediment 70 m from the shoreline. From 75 to 300 m inland the deposit has been laid down in rice paddies, and maintains a thickness of 10–20 cm. Landward of 300 m the deposit thins dramatically, reaching 1 mm by 450 m inland. From 450 m to the edge of deposition (around 700 m inland) the deposit remains <1 mm thick. Deposition generally attended inundation—along the transect, the tsunami deposited sand to within about 40 m of the inundation limit. The thicker part of the deposit contains primarily sand indistinguishable from that found on the beach 3 weeks after the event, but after about 450 m (and roughly coinciding with the decrease in thickness) the tsunami sediment shifts to become more like the underlying paddy soil than the beach sand. Grain sizes within the deposit tend to fine upward and landward, although overall upward fining takes place in two discrete pulses, with an initial section of inverse grading followed by a section of normal grading. The two inversely graded sections are also density graded, with denser grains at the base, and less dense grains at the top. The two normally graded sections show no trends in density. The inversely graded sections show high density sediment to the base and become less dense upward and represents traction carpet flows at the base of the tsunami. These are suggestive of high shear rates in the flow. Because of the grain sorting in the traction carpet, the landward-fining trends usually seen in tsunami deposits are masked, although lateral changes of mean sediment grain size along the transect do show overall landward fining, with more variation as the deposit tapers off. The deposit is also thicker in the more seaward portions than would be produced by tsunamis lacking traction carpets.  相似文献   

Proximate environmental drivers of coral communities at Palmyra Atoll: establishing baselines prior to removing a WWII military causeway     

Williams GJ  Knapp IS  Maragos JE  Davy SK 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(8):1842-1851

A management proposal aims to partly remove a WWII military causeway at Palmyra Atoll to improve lagoon water circulation and alleviate sedimentation stress on the southeast backreef, an area of high coral cover and diversity. This action could result in a shift in sedimentation across reef sites. To provide management advice, we quantified the proximate environmental factors driving scleractinian coral cover and community patterns at Palmyra. The proportion of fine sedimentation was the optimal predictor of coral cover and changes in community structure, explaining 23.7% and 24.7% of the variation between sites, respectively. Scleractinian coral cover was negatively correlated with increases in fine sedimentation. Removing the causeway could negatively affect the Montipora corals that dominate the western reef terrace, as this genus was negatively correlated with levels of fine sedimentation. The tolerance limits of corals, and sediment re-distribution patterns, should be determined prior to complete removal of the causeway.  相似文献   

Slow Dynamics of Earth Materials: An Experimental Overview     

James A. TenCate 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(12):2211-2219

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