The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

Ed Hawkins  Rowan Sutton 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):407-418

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.  相似文献   

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa     

CL de Moor  SJ Johnston  A Brandão  RA Rademeyer  JP Glazer  LB Furman 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(3):285-311

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.  相似文献   

Solitary wave generation dynamics at Luzon Strait     

A. Warn-Varnas  J. Hawkins  K.G. Lamb  S. Piacsek  S. Chin-Bing  D. King  G. Burgos 《Ocean Modelling》2010,31(1-2):9-27

A high resolution modeling study is undertaken, with a 2.5-dimensional nonhydrostatic model, of the generation of internal waves induced by tidal motion over the ridges in Luzon Strait. The model is forced by the barotropic tidal components K1, M2, and O1. These tidal components, along with the initial density field, were extracted from data and models. As the barotropic tide moves over the Luzon Strait sills, there is a conversion of barotropic tidal energy into baroclinic tidal energy. Depressions are generated that propagate towards the Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX) test site on the Chinese continental shelf. Nonlinear effects steepen the depressions, frequency and amplitude dispersion set in, and disintegration into large amplitude solitary waves occurs. The effects of varying the initial density field, tidal component magnitudes, as well as adding a steady background current to represent the occasional excursions of the Kuroshio Current into the strait, are considered.Depressions are generated at each of the two sills in Luzon Strait which radiate away, steepening and evolving into internal solitary wave trains. Baroclinic fluxes of available potential energy, kinetic energy and linear are calculated for various parameter combinations. The solitary wave trains produced in the simulations generally consist of large amplitude wave trains alternating with small amplitude wave trains. During strong tidal flow, Kelvin–Helmholtz type instabilities can develop over the taller double-humped sill. The solitary waves propagating towards the ASIAEX test site have been observed to reach amplitudes of 120–250 m, depending on the tidal strength. ASIAEX observations indicate amplitudes up to 150 m and the Windy Island Experiment (WISE) measurements contain magnitudes over 200 m. The model results yield solitary wave amplitudes of 70–300 m and half widths of 0.60–3.25 km, depending on parameter values. These are in the range of observations. Measurements by Klymak et al. (2006), in the South China Sea, exhibit amplitudes of 170 m, half widths of 3 km and phase speeds of 2.9 m s^?1. Model predictions indicate that the solitary waves making up the wave packet each experience different background currents with strong near surface shear.The energy in the leading soliton of the large amplitude wave trains ranges between 1.8 and 9.0 GJ m^?1. The smaller value, produced using barotropic tidal currents based on the Oregon State University data base, is the same as the energy estimated to be in a solitary wave observed by Klymak et al. (2006). Estimates of the conversion of barotropic tidal energy into radiating internal wave energy yield conversion rates ranging between 3.6% and 8.3%.  相似文献   

Excursion to Grays,Essex, May 20th, 1871     

T. Wiltshire  M. Hawkins Johnson 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》1872,2(6):245-247

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Field meeting in the southern chilterns: Saturday,May 11th, 1935     

Professor H.L. Hawkins  D.Sc.  V.P.G.S. 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》1936,47(1):32-35

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Field meeting at Pangbourne and Sulham: Saturday,May 5th, 1945     

H.L. Hawkins 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》1945,56(4):228-230

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Changes in a rocky shore community: An evaluation of monitoring     

S.J Hawkins  R.G Hartnoll 《Marine environmental research》1983,9(3):131-181

The basic aim of this study was to record the changes in the communities on a moderately exposed rocky shore by a programme of repeated non-destructive sampling (‘monitoring’) and to determine the causes of these changes. Possible causative factors were investigated by the combined approach of analysing detailed sea-temperature and meteorological data for the period of the study and establishing manipulative field experiments.Fixed quadrats (2 m by 1 m) at three levels were visited at 6–8 weekly intervals for 30 months and the abundance and spatial pattern of major species assessed. In the ‘High’ quadrat the balance between Fucus spiralis and F. vesiculosus changed, and an outburst of ephemeral algae occurred following a decline in overall canopy cover. In the ‘Mid’ quadrat F. vesiculosus decreased considerably from its initial cover and virtually disappeared by the end of the study. In the ‘Low’ quadrat F. vesiculosus increased from being absent to comprising 20% of the canopy, whilst Semmibalanus (= Balanus) balanoides and ‘understorey’ algae decreased in cover. Actinia equina, Nucella lapillus and Patella vulgata showed marked changes in number at all levels where they occurred.Only certain of these changes could be attributed to the physical environment—most were biologically controlled. For example, manipulative experiments showed that the blooms of ephemeral algae and the decline of Patella in the high-shore quadrat, and the decline of Actinia in the mid-shore quadrat, were due to decreases in the fucoid canopy. These canopy changes were, in turn, the result of biological cycles which are characteristic of these communities. However, even with the support of manipulative experiments, it was not possible to account for (or predict) all of the observed natural changes. The extent of these fluctuations poses a serious obstacle to the recognition of any but very gross pollution-induced effects. The conclusion must be that the monitoring of rocky shores as a means of detecting and measuring pollution is likely to be an unproductive investment of time and resources.  相似文献   

The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Steve J. Maddox  Ed Hawkins  John A. Peacock  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Bryn Jones  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1485-1494

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Substructure analysis of selected low-richness 2dFGRS clusters of galaxies     

William S. Burgett  Michael M. Vick  David S. Davis  Matthew Colless  Roberto De Propris  Ivan Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(2):605-654

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Interactions of aquaculture and waste disposal in the coastal zone     

Zhai Xuemei  S. J. Hawkins 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2002,1(1):8-12

Throughout the world, the coastal zones of many countries are used increasingly for aquaculture in addition to other activities such as waste disposal. These activities can cause environmental problems and health problems where they overlap. The interaction between aquaculture and waste disposal, and their relationship with eutrophication are the subjects of this paper. Sewage discharge without adequate dispersion can lead to nutrient elevation and hence eutrophication which has clearly negative effects on aquaculture with the potential for toxic blooms. Blooms may be either toxic or anoxia-causing through the decay process or simply clog the gills of filter-feeding animals in some cases. With the development of aquaculture, especially intensive aquaculture, many environmental problems appeared, and have resulted in eutrophication in some areas. Eutrophication may destroy the health of whole ecosystem which is important for sustainable aquaculture. Sewage discharge may also cause serious public health problems. Filter-feeding shellfish growing in sewage-polluted waters accumulate micro-organims, including human pathogenic bacteria and viruses, and heavy metal ion, presenting a significant health risk. Some farmed animals may also accumulate heavy metals from sewage. Bivalves growing in areas affected by toxic algae blooms may accumulate toxins (such as PSP, DSP) which can be harmful to human beings.  相似文献