Sur la prévision des perturbations atmosphériques     

Prof. Ing. Antonio Gião 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1955,32(1):124-130

Résumé Le mémoire commence par une analyse des relations qui existent entre les notions d'analyticité, de non analyticité et d'unicité des solutions d'équations d'évolution d'un certain type et les notions de déterminisme, d'indéterminisme et de prédéterminabilité des phénomènes correspondants.Ces résultats sont ensuite appliqués au cas des perturbations atmosphériques et l'on montre, en s'appuyant sur la théorie des distributions, que les solutions d'une équation différentielle spatio-temporelle de ces perturbations, déduite par l'auteur dans des mémoires antérieurs, jouissent de la propriété d'unicité, ce qui justifié théoriquement l'application de cette équation en prévision du temps.Finalement, ou expose brièvement un nouveau procédé permettant une détermination facile du facteur de non-analyticité qui intervient dans la solution générale de l'équation des perturbations.

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Summary The paper begins with an analysis of the relations existing between the notions of analyticity, non-analyticity and unicity of the solutions of equations of evolution of a certain type and the notions of determinism, indeterminism and predeterminability of the corresponding phenomena.These results are then applied to the atmospheric perturbations and it is shown, by means of the distribution theory, that the solutions of a spatio-temporal differential equation of these perturbations, previously deduced by the author in other papers, have the unicity property. This is the theoretical proof that such equation can be applied in weather forecasting.Finally, a new procedure is outlined for an easy determination of the non-analyticity factor appearing in the general solution of the perturbation equation.

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A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation     

Lênio Soares Galvão  Alana Almeida de Souza  Fábio Marcelo Breunig 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2020,57(1):74-90

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.  相似文献   

On solution of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow via maximum likelihood     

Hugo A. Loaiciga  Miguel A. Mariño 《Mathematical Geology》1986,18(7):677-692

Joint estimation of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) in a confined aquifer is done via maximum likelihood (ML). The differential equation of groundwater flow is discretized by the finite-element method, leading to equation _t+x _t=u _t. Elements of matrices and , as well as estimated covariance matrix of noise termu _t, are functions of T and S. By minimizing the negative loglikelihood function corresponding to discretized groundwater flow equation with respect to T and S, ML estimators are obtained. The ML approach is found to yield accurate estimates of T and S (within 9 and 10% of their actual values, respectively) and showed quadratic convergence in Newton's search technique. Prediction of aquifer response, using ML estimators, results in estimated piezometric heads accurate to ±0.5 m from their actual, exact values. Statistical properties of ML estimators are derived and some basic results for statistical inference are given.  相似文献   

A paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico based on ostracode paleoecology and trace element shell chemistry     

Manuel R. Palacios-Fest  Ana Luisa Carreño  José R. Ortega-Ramírez  Guillermo Alvarado-Valdéz 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(2):185-206

Paleoecology of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico was reconstructed using ostracode faunal assemblages and shell chemistry. The paleolimnological record is used to show the magnitude of paleoclimatic changes in the area from 25,000 years to the present.Faunal assemblages consist of four species of the genus Limnocythere: L. sappaensis, L. ceriotuberosa, L. bradburyi and L. platyforma, all associated with Candona caudata, Candona patzcuaro and Cypridopsis vidua. A paleosalinity index developed from these assemblages indicates that the lake's salinity fluctuated frequently from oligo- to meso-haline conditions during the last 25,000 years. This pattern and low salinity range are in good agreement with modern TDS (here used as an indicator of salinity) values recorded from 26 wells and one spring from the area (258–975 mg l^–1). To estimate paleotemperature we examined the trace element content (Mg/Ca ratios) from individual valves of L. ceriotuberosa and L. platyforma, the two species most commonly recorded in Laguna Babícora.Shell Mg/Ca ratios of 204 specimens of these two species were used to estimate water temperature (Mg/Ca) by means of experimental standard coefficients. Our data show that paleowater temperature ranged from 5.6–21.3 °C (with 2 values ranging from 0.2–4.8 °C), which suggest a close correlation with atmospheric temperatures around the lake. These results are in good agreement with a modern mean winter temperature (3.5 °C) and mean summer temperature (20 °C) recorded in the area between 1970 and 1980.  相似文献   

The Role of the Magnetic Field in the Ascension of the 22nd and 23rd Cycles of Activity     

Bumba  V.  Garcia  A.  Klvaňa  M. 《Solar physics》2000,197(1):175-202

The first small active regions of the last two new cycles seem to be formed, in its very first, preparatory stage, close to the equator with uncertain magnetic orientation, and as secondary products at the periphery of equatorial `magnetic bubbles' of the new magnetic flux still belonging to the old cycle. At the real beginning of the new cycle, at the periphery of its higher-latitude `magnetic bubbles', the opposite applies to the secondary regions of the ending cycle. It seems that two modes of magnetic flux supply the visible layers of the photosphere during the cycle transition phase: the emergence of the magnetic flux from the depth of the convective zone, and the mutual interaction of the earlier emerging fluxes, or the action of the `local dynamo', giving rise to the new local magnetic field concentrations.  相似文献   

An audio-magnetotelluric investigation in Terceira Island (Azores)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fernando A. Monteiro Santos  Antnio Trota  Antnio Soares  Rafael Luzio  Nuno Loureno  Liliana Matos  Eugnio Almeida  Joo L. Gaspar  Jorge M. Miranda 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2006,59(4):314-323

Ten audio-magnetotelluric soundings have been carried out along a profile crossing the Serra do Cume caldera in the eastern part of the Terceira Island (Azores). The main objectives of this investigation were to detect geoelectrical features related with tectonic structures and to characterize regional hydrological and hydrothermal aspects mainly those related to geothermal fluid dynamics.Three-dimensional numerical investigation showed that the data acquired at periods shorter than 1 s are not significantly affected by ocean effect. The data was analysed using the Smith's decomposition method in order to investigate possible distortions caused by superficial structures and to estimate a global regional strike. The results suggest that in general the soundings were not distorted. A regional N55°W strike was chosen for the two-dimensional data inversion.The low-resistivity zones (10–30 ohm-m) displayed in the central part of the 2-D geoelectrical model have been interpreted as caused by hydrothermal circulation. The low-resistivity anomalies at the ends of the profile might be attributed to alteration zones with interaction of seawater intrusion. High-resistivity (> 300 ohm-m) values have been related with less permeable zones in the SW of Cinco Picos and Guilherme Moniz caldera walls.  相似文献   

Trophic Assessment in Chinese coastal systems-review of methods and application to the Changjiang (Yangtze) Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Yongjin Xiao  João G. Ferreira  Suzanne B. Bricker  João P. Nunes  Mingyuan Zhu  Xuelei Zhang 《Estuaries and Coasts》2007,30(6):901-918

Coastal eutrophication has become one of the main threats to Chinese coastal areas during the last two decades. High nutrient loads from human activities have modified the natural background water quality in coastal water bodies, resulting in a range of undesirable effects. There is a need to assess the eutrophic level in coastal systems and to identify the extent of this impact to guide development of appropriate management efforts. Traditional Chinese assessment methods are discussed and compared with other currently-used methods, such as the Oslo-Paris Convention for the Protection of the North Sea (OSPAR) Comprehensive Procedure and Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS). The ASSETS method and two Chinese methods were tested on two Chinese systems: the Changjiang (Yangtze) Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay. ASSETS is process based, and uses a pressure-state-response model based on three main indices: Influencing Factors, Overall Eutrophic Condition, and Future Outlook. The traditional methods are based on a nutrient index. ASSETS was successfully applied to both systems, classifying the Changjiang Estuary as Bad (high eutrophication) and Jiaozhou Bay as High (low eutrophication). The traditional methods led to ambiguous results, particularly for Jiaozhou Bay, due to the high spatial variability of data and a failure to assess the role of shellfish aquaculture in nutrient control. An overview of the Chinese coastal zone identifies 50 estuaries and bays that should form part of a national assessment. A comparison of methods and results suggests that ASSETS is a promising tool for evaluating the eutrophication status of these systems.  相似文献   

Homogeneity of the Geochemical Reference Material BRP-1 (Paraná Basin Basalt) and Assessment of Minimum Mass     

Aloísio J.B. Cotta  Jacinta Enzweiler  Stephen A. Wilson  Carlos A. Pérez  Antonio J.R. Nardy  João H. Larizzatti 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2007,31(4):379-393

Reference materials (RM) are required for quantitative analyses and their successful use is associated with the degree of homogeneity, and the traceability and confidence limits of the values established by characterisation. During the production of a RM, the chemical characterisation can only commence after it has been demonstrated that the material has the required level of homogeneity. Here we describe the preparation of BRP-1, a proposed geochemical reference material, and the results of the tests to evaluate its degree of homogeneity between and within bottles. BRP-1 is the first of two geochemical RM being produced by Brazilian institutions in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the International Association of Geoanalysts (IAG). Two test portions of twenty bottles of BRP-1 were analysed by wavelength dispersive-XRF spectrometry and major, minor and eighteen trace elements were determined. The results show that for most of the investigated elements, the units of BRP-1 were homogeneous at conditions approximately three times more rigorous than those strived for by the test of "sufficient homogeneity". Furthermore, the within bottle homogeneity of BRP-1 was evaluated using small beam (1 mm²) synchrotron radiation XRF spectrometry and, for comparison, the USGS reference materials BCR-2 and GSP-2 were also evaluated. From our data, it has been possible to assign representative minimum masses for some major constituents (1 mg) and for some trace elements (1-13 mg), except Zr in GSP-2, for which test portions of 74 mg are recommended.  相似文献   

A new algorithm to estimate sky condition based on 5 minutes-averaged values of clearness index and relative optical air mass     

H. F. Assunção  J. F. Escobedo  A. P. Oliveira 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,90(3-4):235-248

Summary This work describes a new algorithm to characterize sky condition in intervals of 5 min using four categories of sun exposition: apparent sun with cloud reflection effects; apparent sun without cloud effects; sun partially concealed by clouds; and sun totally concealed by clouds. The algorithm can also be applied to estimate hourly and daily sky condition in terms of the traditional three categories: clear, partially cloudy and cloudy day. It identifies sky conditions within a confidence interval of 95% by minimizing local climate and measurement effects. This is accomplished by using a logistic cumulative probability function to characterize clear sky and Weibull cumulative probability function to represent cloudy sky. Both probability functions are derived from frequency distributions of clearness index, based on 5 minutes-averaged values of global solar irradiance observed at the surface during a period of 6 years in Botucatu, Southeastern of Brazil. The relative sunshine estimated from the new algorithm is statistically comparable to the one derived from Campbell-Stocks sunshine recorder for both daily and monthly values. The new method indicates that the highest frequency of clear sky days occurs in Botucatu during winter (66%) and the lowest during the summer (38%). Partially cloudy condition is the dominant feature during all months of the year.  相似文献   

Analysis of the precipitation and cloudiness associated with COLs occurrence in the Iberian Peninsula     

R. Nieto  L. Gimeno  J. A. Añel  L. De la Torre  D. Gallego  D. Barriopedro  M. Gallego  A. Gordillo  A. Redaño  G. Delgado 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,96(1-2):103-119

Summary The Iberian Peninsula is one of the regions in the world with higher occurrence of cut-off low systems (COL). The aim of this paper is to analyse the weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated to COLs in the Iberian Peninsula with tools not previously used: (a) the use of the new multidecadal COLs database developed by Nieto et al (2005) that permit us to study a 41 years period (1958–1998), (b) the checking of the expected weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated with COLs in a conceptual model (Winkler et al, 2005) and (c) the extensive use of radiosoundings to analyse convective instability in areas inside and close to the COL. Two points of view are used to make the analysis: (1) a source oriented method, when a particular COL is followed and its associated precipitation and cloudiness is analysed over four quadrants in which Iberia was divided and (2) a receptor oriented method, when the precipitation associated to COLs is analysed in given areas, defined by patterns of precipitation. Results reveal that the precipitation and cloudiness patterns associated to COLs in the conceptual model reproduce quite well the main characteristics found over the Iberian Peninsula. The generalized idea that most of the COLs produce intense convective rainfall is show to be misleading. Convective phenomena are important usually when the centre of the COL is located on the Mediterranean region. Most of the rainfall associated with COLs comes from the baroclinic shield; specially in cases located over the west half of the Iberian Peninsula. It is shown that nearly 30% of COLs do not induce any rainfall; most of them located in the southern half of the Peninsula, and mainly during autumn. Only 30% of COLs produce generalized rainfall over the whole analysed territory, being most of them (about 90%) located over the western half of the Iberian Peninsula.  相似文献