Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kenneth C. Land  Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1987,11(1-2):7-31

This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.The research reported herein was supported in part by the IC² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, and in part by National Science Foundation Grant Number SES-8411702. However, the opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring organizations. We appreciate the advice and comments of Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert S. Chen, Judith Jacobsen, and Richard C. Rockwell on earlier versions of this paper.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

Explosive magma-water interactions: Thermodynamics,explosion mechanisms,and field studies   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Kenneth H. Wohletz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1986,48(5):245-264

Physical analysis of explosive, magma-water interaction is complicated by several important controls: (1) the initial geometry and location of the contact between magma and water; (2) the process by which thermal energy is transferred from the magma to the water; (3) the degree to and manner by which the magma and water become intermingled prior to eruption; (4) the thermodynamic equation of state for mixtures of magma fragments and water; (5) the dynamic metastability of superheated water; and (6) the propagation of shock waves through the system. All of these controls can be analyzed while addressing aspects of tephra emplacement from the eruptive column by fallout, surge, and flow processes. An ideal thermodynamic treatment, in which the magma and external water are allowed to come to thermal equilibrium before explosive expansion, shows that the maximum system pressure and entropy are determined by the mass ratio of water and magma interacting. Explosive (thermodynamic) efficiency, measured by the ratio of maximum work potential to thermal energy of the magma, depends upon heat transfer from the pyroclasts to the vapor during the expansion stage. The adiabatic case, in which steam immediately separates from the tephra during ejection, produces lower efficiencies than does the isothermal case, in which heat is continually transferred from tephra to steam as it expands. Mechanisms by which thermal equilibrium between water and magma can be obtained require intimate mixing of the two. Interface instabilities of the Landau and Taylor type have been documented by experiments to cause fine-scale mixing prior to vapor explosion. In these cases, water is heated rapidly to a metastable state of superheat where vapor explosion occurs by spontaneous nucleation when a temperature limit is exceeded. Mixing may also be promoted by shock wave propagation. If the shock is of sufficient strength to break the magma into small pieces, thermal equilibrium and vapor production in its wake may drive the shock as a thermal detonation. Because these mechanisms of magma fragmentation allow calculation of grain size, vapor temperature and pressure, and pressure rise times, detailed emplacement models can be developed by critical field and laboratory analysis of the resulting tephra deposits. Deposits left by dense flows of tephra and wet steam as opposed to those left by dilute flows of dry steam and tephra show contrasts in median grain size, dispersal area, grain shape, grain surface chemistry, and bed form.  相似文献   

Seasonality of materials transport through a coastal freshwater marsh: Riverine versus tidal forcing     

Marlene K. Stern  John W. Day  Kenneth G. Teague 《Estuaries and Coasts》1986,9(4):301-308

Transports of nitrate and suspended solids were measured six times from January 1984 until January 1985 in a small freshwater tidal bayou in south-central Louisiana. The bayou and adjacent marshes are influenced by Atchafalaya River discharges, tides, and coastal weather patterns. Large net ebb-directed water transports occurred in winter, spring, and summer, coincident with high river discharges, indicating riverine dominance. A very small net flood-directed water transport occurred in fall, indicating tidally dominated hydrology. Nitrate and suspended solids transports were net ebb-directed in all seasons, but were two orders of magnitude higher during high river flow. Exports changed as hydrology switched from river dominated to tidally dominated, and as concentrations of materials changed. Comparison of suspended solids and nitrate concentrations in the river and bayou shows that these materials were usually lower in the bayou, indicating retention by the marsh/aquatic system.  相似文献   

Environmental oxidation rate of manganese(II): bacterial catalysis     

Steven Emerson  Susan Kalhorn  Lucinda Jacobs  Bradley M Tebo  Kenneth H Nealson  Reinhardt A Rosson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(6):1073-1079

A simple mass balance for dissolved manganese(II) in waters containing low levels of oxygen in Saanich Inlet indicates that the residence time for Mn(II) removal to the solid phase is on the order of a few days. The average oxidation state of Mn in particulate material sampled from the region of Mn removal was 2.3–2.7, and electron micrographs revealed structures characteristic of bacterially formed Mn precipitates. Radiotracer experiments utilizing ⁵⁴Mn(II) indicated that removal of Mn from solution in the region of active uptake was substantially blocked by a poison mixture, demonstrating that Mn(II) binding to particulates is catalyzed by bacteria in this environment.  相似文献   

Sulphur uptake by salt grasses,mangroves, and seagrasses in anaerobic sediments     

Brian Fry  Richard S Scalan  J.Kenneth Winters  Patrick L Parker 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(6):1121-1124

Stable sulfur isotope analyses show that rooted estuarine plants growing in anoxic sediments incorporate substantial amounts of ³⁴S-depleted sulfides, or oxidation products thereof. In roots, this incorporation predominates over sulfate uptake from interstitial porewater. Either the plants incorporate normally toxic sulfides, or they are creating and using a specialized nutrient pool of oxidized sulfides at the root-sediment interface.  相似文献   

Solubility of rhodochrosite (MnCO₃) in water and seawater     

Kenneth S. Johnson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(10):1805-1809

The solubility product of rhodochrosite (MnCO₃) was measured in seawater, deionized water and dilute NaCl solutions. The solubility product extrapolated to infinite dilution at 25.0 C was (2.60 ± 0.07)× 10^?11. The stoichiometric solubility product measured in seawater of 34.27%. salinity was (3.24 ± 0.23) × 10^?9 at 25.0 C and (2.28 ± 0.24) × 10^?9 at 3.3 C. The stoichiometric solubility product is in good agreement with the value calculated from an ion association model. The enthalpy of the reaction is in fair agreement with the estimated value.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and Rb-sr geochronology of associated proterozoic peralkaline and subalkaline anorogenic granites from Labrador     

Kenneth D. Collerson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1982,81(2):126-147

Anorogenic granites of middle to late Proterozoic age in the Davis Inlet — Flowers Bay area of Labrador are subdivided on the basis of petrology and geochemistry into three coeval suites. Two of these are high-temperature anhydrous hypersolvus granites: a peralkaline aegirine-sodic-calcic to sodic amphibole-bearing suite and a non-alkaline fayalite-pyroxene-bearing suite. The third is a group of non-alkaline subsolvus hornblende-biotite-bearing granites. Associated with the hypersolvus peralkaline suite is a group of genetically related syenites and quartz syenites. The granites cut ca. 3,000 Ma old Archaean gneisses as well as Elsonian layered basic intrusions of the Nain Complex. One of these, a crudely layered mass which ranges in composition from gabbro to diorite and monzonite, appears to be related to the syenites. The peralkaline granites and some of the syenites are extremely enriched in the high field-strength elements such as Y, Zr, Nd, as well as Rb, Ga and Zn, and have low abundances of Ba, Sr and most of the transition elements. In contrast, the non-alkaline hypersolvus and subsolvus granites do not show the same degree of enrichment. Concentration of the highly charged cations in the peralkaline suite is believed to be the result of halogen-rich fluid activity during fractionation of the magma. The sodic evolution trend in the peralkaline suite is reflected mineralogically by the development of aegirine and aegirine-hedenbergite solid solutions, and by a spectacular amphibole compositional range from katophorite through winchite, richterite, riebeckite to arfvedsonite and ferro eckermannite. Accessory phases which are ubiquitous in these rocks include aenigmatite, astrophyllite, fluorite, monazite and zircon. The non-alkaline hypersolvus granites typically contain iron-rich phases such as fayalite, eulite, ferrosilite-hedenbergite, and annite rich biotite. In the subsolvus granites, amphiboles range in composition from edenite through common hornblende to actinolite and also coexist with annite-rich biotite.Whole-rock and mineral isotopic data for the different suites yield isochrons that are within error of ca. 1,260 Ma, but they have variable initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of the syenites and peralkaline granites (0.7076±11) is significantly lower than the initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of the subsolvus granites (0.7138±22). These isotopic data provide further confirmation of the importance of a late Elsonian alkaline event in Labrador which can be correlated with Gardar igneous activity in south Greenland. The petrogenesis of the peralkaline suite is interpreted to reflect the effects of fractionation of anhydrous phases from mantle derived basic magma which was contaminated during ascent by radiogenic partial melts of crustal derivation. The non-alkaline hypersolvus and subsolvus granites are interpreted as crustal melts which formed under conditions of variable in response to the same thermal event, and which subsequently experienced feldspar fractionation during crystallization.  相似文献   

X-Ray Fluorescence Determination of Trace Elements in 6 B.C.S. and 5 P.R.E. Reference Materials     

Kenneth PALMER  Paul C. KENNEDY  Barry ROSER 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》1983,7(2):301-303

The concentrations of 20 trace elements in 6 British Chemical Standards (BCS) reference materials and 5 European Federation of Refractories Producers (PRE) reference materials have been determined by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry.  相似文献   

Surface study of HF- and $\text{HF}\text{H}{}_2\text{SO}{}_4\text{-}\text{treated}$ feldspar using Auger electron spectroscopy     

Dale L. Perry  Leon Tsao  Kenneth A. Gaugler 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1983,47(7):1289-1291

Auger electron spectroscopy has been used to study K-feldspar that has been reacted with both aqueous 10% HF and a 50% mixture of a 10% HF/0.1 N H₂SO₄ solution. In the feldspar/HF system, the resulting feldspar surface was shown to have been fluorinated; depth profiling, using argon ion sputtering, showed the fluorination to have occurred substantially into the mineral bulk. In the feldspar/ $\text{HF}\text{H}{}_2\text{SO}{}_4$ system, the resulting surface contained both fluorine and sulfur. The fluorination had again penetrated into the bulk, but the sulfur could be removed with mild argon ion sputtering. The $\text{Al}\text{F}$ signal ratio was much lower on the feldspar surface treated with the 10% HF/0.1 N H₂SO₄ solution than the feldspar surface treated with the weaker 10% HF acid solution.  相似文献   

Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example     

Tom Koch  Kenneth Denike 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):523-531

The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.  相似文献