Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards     

C. John Mann 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(5):589-601

Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.  相似文献   

The SCUBA Half Degree Extragalactic Survey – IV. Radio–mm–FIR photometric redshifts     

Itziar Aretxaga  David H. Hughes  Kristen Coppin  Angela M. J. Mortier  Jeff Wagg  James S. Dunlop  Edward L. Chapin  Stephen A. Eales  Enrique Gaztañaga  Mark Halpern  Rob J. Ivison  Eelco van Kampen  Douglas Scott  Stephen Serjeant  Ian Smail  Thomas Babbedge  rew J. Benson  Scott Chapman  David L. Clements  Loretta Dunne  Simon Dye  Duncan Farrah  Matt J. Jarvis  Robert G. Mann  Alexandra Pope  Robert Priddey  Steve Rawlings  Marc Seigar  Laura Silva  Chris Simpson  Mattia Vaccari 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(4):1571-1588

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REVISED CLASSIFICATION OF METEORITIC IMPACT SITES ON EARTH     

C. John Mann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1985,20(3):591-592

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The spatial scale of correlation of the day-to-day variability of Sq     

D. M. Schlapp  R. J. Mann 《Geophysical Journal International》1983,73(3):671-673

Summary. It is confirmed that even when disturbance variations are taken into account, the spatial scale of day-to-day variability of Sq is local, that is, of the order of one or two thousand kilometres, rather than globally correlated.  相似文献   

Origin of high manganese concentrations in coal mine drainage, eastern Tennessee     

Daniel Larsen  Richard Mann 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2005,86(3):143-163

The origin of high dissolved manganese concentrations in slightly acidic mine runoff from a surface mine operated by the Cumberland Coal Company in eastern Tennessee was investigated. Mineralogical and chemical analyses were performed on 31 samples of sandstone, shale, coal, and mudstone from the mine to identify the sources and stratigraphic distribution of high extractable manganese contents in the spoil materials. The samples were analyzed for their bulk mineral content by X-ray diffraction, net acid-base potential, and reaction to 2 or 4 chemical extraction procedures. A limited number of samples were analyzed for petrographic characteristics, clay mineral composition by X-ray diffraction, and mineral compositions by electron microprobe. Analysis of the data and consideration of the geochemical conditions at the mine were used to identify probable sources for the high extractable manganese contents.The results indicate 2 prominent, independent sources of extractable manganese. The first source is exchangeable manganese on clay minerals (mainly illite + muscovite and chlorite) and is concentrated in shale and mudstone rock types. The second and more significant source is manganese in siderite concretions and cement, mainly in shale and mudstone. Comparison to other coal-bearing strata indicates that manganese-rich siderite is common in fresh- to brackish-water subaqueous sediments that overlie coal. This is especially the case for coals formed in wet, tropical environments.Ratios of manganese to calcium and magnesium in mine runoff suggest that manganese from siderite is the major cause of the high dissolved manganese contents. A conceptual model is developed to explain the high manganese contents of the mine runoff. Oxidation of pyrite creates mildly acidic waters that are subsequently partially neutralized by reaction with impure siderite. Solubilized manganese remains dissolved in the slightly acidic runoff water, whereas dissolved iron precipitates as ferric hydroxide or goethite. Consideration of data from other coal mining regions suggests that similar reactions involving impure siderite may be responsible for high manganese concentrations in acidic to slightly acidic mine runoff. Geochemical reaction path modeling of pyrite and impure siderite with rainwater illustrate how resulting water compositions may vary depending on pyrite to siderite ratios in spoil materials. Spoil water compositions from the Cumberland mine are largely consistent with reaction of pyrite and impure siderite in proportions observed in the sediments; however, deviations may be explained by minor mixing with waters that reacted only with impure siderite or clay mineral exchange reactions.  相似文献   

EIDOSCOPE: particle acceleration at plasma boundaries     

A. Vaivads  G. Andersson  S. D. Bale  C. M. Cully  J. De Keyser  M. Fujimoto  S. Grahn  S. Haaland  H. Ji  Yu. V. Khotyaintsev  A. Lazarian  B. Lavraud  I. R. Mann  R. Nakamura  T. K. M. Nakamura  Y. Narita  A. Retinò  F. Sahraoui  A. Schekochihin  S. J. Schwartz  I. Shinohara  L. Sorriso-Valvo 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,33(2-3):491-527

We describe the mission concept of how ESA can make a major contribution to the Japanese Canadian multi-spacecraft mission SCOPE by adding one cost-effective spacecraft EIDO (Electron and Ion Dynamics Observatory), which has a comprehensive and optimized plasma payload to address the physics of particle acceleration. The combined mission EIDOSCOPE will distinguish amongst and quantify the governing processes of particle acceleration at several important plasma boundaries and their associated boundary layers: collisionless shocks, plasma jet fronts, thin current sheets and turbulent boundary layers. Particle acceleration and associated cross-scale coupling is one of the key outstanding topics to be addressed in the Plasma Universe. The very important science questions that only the combined EIDOSCOPE mission will be able to tackle are: 1) Quantitatively, what are the processes and efficiencies with which both electrons and ions are selectively injected and subsequently accelerated by collisionless shocks? 2) How does small-scale electron and ion acceleration at jet fronts due to kinetic processes couple simultaneously to large scale acceleration due to fluid (MHD) mechanisms? 3) How does multi-scale coupling govern acceleration mechanisms at electron, ion and fluid scales in thin current sheets? 4) How do particle acceleration processes inside turbulent boundary layers depend on turbulence properties at ion/electron scales? EIDO particle instruments are capable of resolving full 3D particle distribution functions in both thermal and suprathermal regimes and at high enough temporal resolution to resolve the relevant scales even in very dynamic plasma processes. The EIDO spin axis is designed to be sun-pointing, allowing EIDO to carry out the most sensitive electric field measurements ever accomplished in the outer magnetosphere. Combined with a nearby SCOPE Far Daughter satellite, EIDO will form a second pair (in addition to SCOPE Mother-Near Daughter) of closely separated satellites that provides the unique capability to measure the 3D electric field with high accuracy and sensitivity. All EIDO instrumentation are state-of-the-art technology with heritage from many recent missions. The EIDOSCOPE orbit will be close to equatorial with apogee 25-30 RE and perigee 8-10 RE. In the course of one year the orbit will cross all the major plasma boundaries in the outer magnetosphere; bow shock, magnetopause and magnetotail current sheets, jet fronts and turbulent boundary layers. EIDO offers excellent cost/benefits for ESA, as for only a fraction of an M-class mission cost ESA can become an integral part of a major multi-agency L-class level mission that addresses outstanding science questions for the benefit of the European science community.  相似文献   

Growth rate of speckled snapper Lutjanus rivulatus (Teleostei: Lutjanidae) based on tag-recapture data from the iSimangaliso Wetland Park,South Africa     

BQ Mann  B Lee  PD Cowley 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(1):111-118

The growth rate of speckled snapper Lutjanus rivulatus was investigated using data from a long-term tag-recapture study conducted in the St Lucia Marine Reserve within the iSimangaliso Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 1 429 L. rivulatus were tagged and 453 (31.7%) individual fish were recaptured one or more times. Growth rates were modelled from the tag-recapture data using a maximum-likelihood approach. It is shown that L. rivulatus is a slow-growing species with L_∞ = 918?mm FL, K = 0.06 and phi-prime (Ø, the growth index) = 2.69. The effects of deep-hooking and multiple captures were tested and this revealed that there was no significant impact on the growth of L. rivulatus. The growth index was lower than that recorded in many other similar congeneric species. Slow growth, coupled with high levels of residency and site fidelity, suggest that this species is vulnerable to exploitation and that a precautionary approach towards future management is appropriate.  相似文献   

The European Large Area ISO Survey – II. Mid-infrared extragalactic source counts     

Stephen Serjeant  Seb Oliver  †  Michael Rowan-Robinson  Hans Crockett  Vasilis Missoulis  Tim Sumner  Carlotta Gruppioni  Robert G. Mann  Nick Eaton  David Elbaz  David L. Clements  Amanda Baker  reas Efstathiou  Catherine Cesarsky  Luigi Danese  Alberto Franceschini  Reinhardt Genzel  y Lawrence  Dietrich Lemke  Richard G. McMahon  George Miley  Jean-Loup Puget  Brigitte Rocca-Volmerange 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,316(4):768-778

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Prototype detector for ultrahigh energy neutrino detection     

Joshua R. Klein  Alfred K. Mann 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,10(4):1014-329

Necessary technical experience is being gained from successful construction and deployment of current prototype detectors to search for UHE neutrinos in Antarctica, Lake Baikal in Russia, and the Mediterranean. The prototype detectors have also the important central purpose of determining whether or not UHE neutrinos do in fact exist in nature by observation of at least a few UHE neutrino-induced leptons with properties that are not consistent with expected backgrounds. We discuss here the criteria for a prototype detector to accomplish that purpose in a convincing way even if the UHE neutrino flux is substantially lower than predicted at present.  相似文献   

Subduction disruption,slab tears: ca. 1 Ma true collision of an ~30-km-thick oceanic plateau segment recorded by Yakutat slab nascent tear magmatism     

Matthew E. Brueseke  Jeffrey A. Benowitz  Alexander T. Bearden  Michael Everett Mann  Daniel P. Miggins 《地学学报》2023,35(1):49-57

Distinguishing the initiation of actual collision from flat-slab subduction of oceanic buoyant highs along convergent margins is elusive because both can lead to inboard deformation and disrupt magmatic arcs. Volcanoes with nascent tear magmatic signatures provide a means to document both the occurrence and timing of actual oceanic buoyant high collision. There is a ~40-year debate on when the true collision of the Yakutat plateau began in Alaska. Three newly identified ca. 1 Ma volcanoes with a north-to-south trench perpendicular orientation, nascent tear geochemical signatures, overlaying an imaged Yakutat slab tear, provide constraints on the timing of Yakutat collision and slab tearing. The ca. 1 Ma slab tear is coincident with Yakutat slab segmentation, northern continental Aleutian Arc rejuvenation, cessation of Wrangell Arc magmatism, increased collisional zone exhumation and eastern Yakutat trench abandonment. The documentation of nascent slab tear volcanoes may help resolve similar debates in other convergent margin settings.  相似文献