Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change: A Case Study in China   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Paul?KirshenEmail author  Mark?McCluskey  Richard?Vogel  Kenneth?Strzepek 《Climatic change》2005,68(3):303-330

Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial dynamics of urea uptake and regeneration rates and concentrations in Chesapeake Bay     

Michael?W.?LomasEmail author  T.?Mark Trice  Patricia?M.?Glibert  Deborah?A.?Bronk  James?J.?McCarthy 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(3):469-482

We examined the temporal and spatial variability of urea concentrations and urea uptake and regeneration rates collected on cruises along the longitudinal axis of the Chesapeake Bay between 1972 and 1998. Interannually, mean Bay-wide surface urea concentrations ranged between 0.49 and 0.91 μg-at N l^?1 with a nearly 50% decrease in surface concentrations observed between 1988 and 1998. Concentrations of urea from samples collected within ～1 m of the bottom were generally higher and much more varable than surface samples. Seasonally, two different patterns were observed in mean Bay-wide surface urea concentrations. Urea concentrations from near surface waters exhibited a clear summer peak for 1988 through 1994, while for 1973 and 1996 to 1998 a distinct winter-spring peak in concentration was observed. Urea concentrations from deeper waters showed a similar seasonal trend each year with peak concentrations measured in spring. Spatially, urea concentrations in the surface waters decreased in a conservative-type pattern from 0.91 μg-at N I^?1 at the freshwater end member to 0.46 μg-at N I^?1 at the ocean end member. Mean Bay-wide surface urea uptake rates displayed a seasonal pattern throughout the data set with maximum uptake rates (up to 0.33 μg-at N I^?1 h^?1) consistently observed during summer. Mean Bay-wide surface regeneration rates were highest but most variable during fall (1.63±0.82 μg-at N I^?1 h^?1). Mean urea uptake and regeneration rates displayed opposing spatial trends along the axis of the Bay with uptake rates being lowest in the North Bay where regeneration rates were highest. The average temporal and spatial patterns of urea concentration in Chesapeake Bay appear to reflect a balance between external inputs and internal biological recycling.  相似文献   

The Impact of Precipitation Scavenging on the Transport of Trace Gases: A 3-Dimensional Model Sensitivity Study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paul J. Crutzen  Mark G. Lawrence 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2000,37(1):81-112

With the global Chemistry-Transport model MATCHsensitivity simulations were performed to determinethe degree to which especially upward transport ofgases from the earth's surface is limited byconvective and large-scale precipitation scavenging.When only dissolution of species in the liquid phaseis taken into account, mixing ratio reductions in themiddle and upper troposphere by 10% arecalculated for gases with a Henry's Law constant H of10³ mol/l/atm. The removal increases to 50% forH = 10⁴ mol/l/atm, and to 90% for H =10⁵ mol/l/atm. We also consider scavenging by theice phase, which is generally much less efficient thanby the aqueous phase. In fact, rejection of gases fromfreezing water droplets may be a source of trace gasat higher altitudes.H₂O₂ and the strong acids (H₂SO₄,HNO₃, HCl, HBr, HI) have such large solubilitiesthat they become largely removed by precipitation.When significant concentrations of these gases andsulfate aerosol exist above the liquid water domain ofthe atmosphere, they have likely been produced thereor at higher altitudes, although some could have comefrom trace gas rejection from ice particles or fromevaporating hydrometeors. Several other gases areaffected by precipitation, but not strongly enough toprevent fractional transfer to the middle and uppertroposphere: e.g., HNO₄, HNO₂ at pH 5,CH₂O, the organic acids at pH 6,CH₃SOCH₃, HOCl, HOBr, and HOI. NH₃ islargely removed by liquid phase scavenging at pH 7 and SO₂ atpH 7. At pH less thanabout 6, upward transport of SO₂ should largelydepend on the efficiency of oxidation processes in thewater droplets by O₃ and H₂O₂.Most gases have solubilities which are too low forsignificant precipitation scavenging and aqueous phaseoxidation to occur. This holds, e.g., for O₃, CO,the hydrocarbons, NO, NO₂, HCN, CH₃CN,CH₃SCH₃, CH₃O₂H, CH₃CHOandhigher aldehydes, CH₃OH and higher alcohols,peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), CH₃COCH₃ andother ketones (note that some of these are not listedin Table I because their solubilities are below 10mol/l/atm). Especially for the short-lived gases,transfer from the boundary layer to the middle andupper troposphere is actually promoted by the enhancedupward transport that occurs in clouds.  相似文献   

Localized spectral analysis on the sphere   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Mark A. Wieczorek  Frederik J. Simons 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,162(3):655-675

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The case for inductive and visual techniques in the analysis of spatial data     

Mark Gahegan 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2000,2(1):77-83

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GCM Hindcasts of SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions     

Leonard M. Druyan  Kathryn P. Shah  Mark A. Chandler  David Rind 《Climatic change》2000,45(2):279-322

The NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climatemodel is forced with globally observed sea-surfacetemperatures (SST) in five simulations, 1969–1991,with individual runs beginning from altered initialatmospheric conditions. The interannual variability ofmodeled anomalies of the Southern Oscillation Index,mid-tropospheric temperatures, 850 mb zonal winds andOutgoing Longwave Radiation over the tropical PacificOcean, which has the largest SST anomaly forcing, arestrongly correlated with observed trends which reflectENSO cycles. The model's rainfall variability overthree agriculturally intensive regions, two tropicaland one mid-latitude, is investigated in order toevaluate the potential usefulness of GCM predictionsfor agricultural planning. The correct sign ofZimbabwe seasonal precipitation anomalies was hindcastwithin a useful range of consensus only for selectseasons corresponding to extreme ENSO events for whichanomalous circulation patterns were ratherrealistically simulated. The correlation betweenhindcasts of Nordeste monthly precipitation andobservations increases with time smoothing, reaching0.64 for 5-month running means. Consensus betweenindividual runs is directly proportional to theabsolute value of Niño3 SST so that during ElNiño and La Niña years most simulations agreeon the sign of predicted Nordeste rainfall anomalies.We show that during selected seasons the uppertropospheric divergent circulation and near surfacemeridional displacements of the ITCZ are realisticallyrepresented by the ensemble mean of the simulations.This realistic simulation of both the synopticmechanisms and the resulting precipitation changesincreases confidence in the GCM's potential forseasonal climate prediction.  相似文献   

Simulation of Regional Ground Water Flow and Salt Water Intrusion in Hernando County, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Varut Guvanasen  Shirley C. Wade  Mark D. Barcelo 《Ground water》2000,38(5):772-783

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Local and regional variations in Central American arc lavas controlled by variations in subducted sediment input   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Lina C. Patino  Michael J. Carr  Mark D. Feigenson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2000,138(3):265-283

The sedimentary section (at DSDP Site 495) on the subducting Cocos Plate has large stratigraphic changes in incompatible elements and element ratios, the result of early carbonate deposition followed by late hemipelagic deposition. Lavas from Central America define both local and regional geochemical trends that reflect the strong influence of the two Cocos Plate sediment units. Element ratios with large stratigraphic variations on the Cocos Plate (e.g. Ba/Th, U/La) define local variations within individual volcanic centers in Central America, indicating that marine stratigraphy controls some geochemical characteristics of the lavas. These local trends can be explained by changing the proportions of hemipelagic sediment input into the magma generation process. These local trends are observed in all the segments of the arc, regardless of the intensity of the slab signature. Regional variations are most clearly seen in element ratios that are nearly constant through the Cocos Plate sediment stratigraphy (e.g. Ba/La, U/Th), suggesting that regional variations reflect differences in the intensity of the flux from the subducting slab. The slab signal is strongest in Nicaragua and along the volcanic front. The signal decreases to the northwest and southeast of Nicaragua and toward the back arc. The large slab signature in the lavas from western Nicaragua occurs in the area with the thinnest continental crust and steepest dip of the slab. The mass flux of incompatible elements into the system is easily estimated, except for elements, like Pb, that have high and variable abundances in the basaltic oceanic crust section. The mass flux of elements out of the system depends on eruption rates, which are variable along the arc and only approximately known. Comparison of input and output fluxes for five different segments of the arc reveals that some elements (K, B, Cs, and Rb) are very efficiently delivered to the volcanoes from the subducted slab. Other elements (Sr, Ba, and U) are returned to the surface with moderate efficiency, whereas some elements (REEs) may come mostly from the mantle wedge with minor slab contribution. The relative order of recycling efficiencies of incompatible elements implies that a hydrous fluid dominates the transfer of material from the slab to mantle. Received: 7 September 1998 / Accepted: 30 September 1999  相似文献   

The origin of Himalayan anatexis and inverted metamorphism: Models and constraints   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

T. Mark Harrison  Marty Grove  Oscar M. Lovera  E. J. Catlos  Jessica D&#x;Andrea 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》1999,17(5-6)

The key to comprehending the tectonic evolution of the Himalaya is to understand the relationships between large-scale faulting, anatexis, and inverted metamorphism. The great number and variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain some or all of these features reflects the fact that fundamental constraints on such models have been slow in coming. Recent developments, most notably in geophysical imaging and geochronology, have been key to coalescing the results of varied Himalayan investigations into constraints with which to test proposed evolutionary models. These models fall into four general types: (1) the inverted metamorphic sequences within the footwall of the Himalayan thrust and adjacent hanging wall anatexis are spatially and temporally related by thrusting; (2) thrusting results from anatexis; (3) anatexis results from normal faulting; and (4) apparent inverted metamorphism in the footwall of the Himalayan thrust is produced by underplating of right-way-up metamorphic sequences. We review a number of models and find that many are inconsistent with available constraints, most notably the recognition that the exposed crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences not temporally related. The generalization that appears to best explain the observed distribution of crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences is that, due to specific petrological and tectonic controls, episodic magmatism and out-of-sequence thrusting developed during continuous convergence juxtaposing allochthonous igneous and metamorphic rocks. This coincidental juxtaposition has proven to be something of a red herring, unduly influencing attention toward finding a causal relationship between anatexis and inverted metamorphism.  相似文献   

The Comet Nucleus Tour (Contour); A NASA Discovery Mission     

Cochran  Anita  Veverka  Joseph  Bell  James  Belton  Michael  Benkhoff  Johannes  Benkhoff  Andrew  Clark  Benton  Feldman  Paul  Kissel  Jochen  Mahaffy  Paul  Malin  Michael  Murchie  Scott  Neimann  Hasso  Owen  Tobias  Robinson  Mark  Schwehm  Gerhard  Squyres  Steve  Thomas  Peter  Whipple  Fred  Yeomans  Donald 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2000,89(1-4):289-300

In 1997, the COmet Nucleus TOUR (CONTOUR) was selected byNASA for a new start as part of the Discovery line. In this paper, we review the status of the mission, the mission timeline and the instruments to be flown. Detail is given of the science goals and how they are to be accomplished.  相似文献