Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

Noble gases in interplanetary dust particles,II: Excess helium‐3 in cluster particles and modeling constraints on interplanetary dust particle exposures to cosmic‐ray irradiation     

R. O. Pepin  R. L. Palma  D. J. Schlutter 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(11):1515-1534

Abstract— Measurements of He isotopes in cluster interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) from stratospheric dust collector L2009 reveal anomalous ³He/⁴He ratios comparable to those seen earlier, up to ～40x the solar wind ratio, in particles from the companion collector L2011. These overabundances of ³He in the L2009 samples are masked by much higher ⁴He contents compared to the L2011 particles, and are visible only in minor gas fractions evolved by stepwise heating at high temperatures. Cosmic‐ray induced spallogenic reactions are efficient producers of ³He. The majority of this paper is devoted to a detailed assessment of the possible role of spallation in generating the ³He excesses in these and other cluster IDPs. A model of collisional erosion and fragmentation during inward transit through the interplanetary dust environment is used to estimate space lifetimes of particles from asteroidal and Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt sources. Results of the modeling indicate that Poynting–Robertson orbital evolution timescales of IDPs small enough to elude destruction on their way to Earth from either location are far shorter than the cosmic‐ray exposure ages required to account for observed ³He overabundances. Grains large enough to have sufficiently long space residence times are fragmented close to their sources. An alternative to long in‐space exposure could be prolonged irradiation of particles buried in parent body regoliths prior to their ejection as IDPs. A qualitative calculation suggests, however, that collisional erosion of asteroidal upper‐regolith materials is likely to occur on timescales shorter than the > 1 Ga burial times needed for accumulation of spallogenic ³He to the levels seen in several cluster particles. In contrast, regoliths on Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt objects may be stable enough to account for the ³He excesses, and delivery of heavily pre‐irradiated IDPs to the inner solar system by short‐period Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt comets remains a possibility. A potential problem is that the expected associated abundances of spallation‐produced ²¹Ne appear to be absent, although here the present IDP data base is too sparse and for the most part too imprecise to rule out a spallogenic origin. Relatively short periods of pre‐ejection residence in asteroidal regoliths may be responsible for the curiously broad exposure age distributions reported for micrometeorites extracted from Greenland and sea‐floor sediments.  相似文献   

A detailed abundance analysis of the hot post-AGB star ZNG-1 in M10     

C.J. Mooney  W.R.J. Rolleston  F.P. Keenan  P.L. Dufton  D.L. Pollacco  H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109

We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T _eff=26 500±1000 K and log  g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity.  相似文献   

Variable stars in the field of open cluster NGC 6819     

R. A.Street  KeithHorne  T. A.Lister  A.Penny  Y.Tsapras  A.Quirrenbach  N.Safizadeh  J.Cooke  D.Mitchell  A.Collier Cameron 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,330(3):737-754

We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June  22–30  and 1999 July  22–31  . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included.  相似文献   

The EVN-MarkIV VLBI Data Processor     

R. T. Schilizzi  W. Aldrich  B. Anderson  A. Bos  R. M. Campbell  J. Canaris  R. Cappallo  J. L. Casse  A. Cattani  J. Goodman  H. J. van Langevelde  A. Maccafferri  R. Millenaar  R. G. Noble  F. Olnon  S. M. Parsley  C. Phillips  S. V. Pogrebenko  D. Smythe  A. Szomoru  H. Verkouter  A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67

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On model predictions of the power spectral density of radial solar p modes     

W. J. Chaplin  G. Houdek  Y. Elsworth  D. O. Gough  G. R. Isaak  R. New 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):859-868

We investigate the frequency dependence of the power spectral density of low-degree solar p modes by comparing measurements with the results of a stochastic-excitation model. In the past it was common practice to use the total power in such investigations. Using the maximum of the power spectral density instead provides a direct comparison with the measured mode heights in the observed power spectrum. This method permits a more careful calibration of the adjustable parameters in the excitation model, a model which we present here, for the first time, in a format that precisely and unambiguously relates the amplitudes of the modes of oscillation to the Reynolds stress in the equilibrium model. We find that errors in the theory of the linear mode damping rates, particularly at low frequency, have a dramatic impact on the predictions of the mode heights in the spectral density, whereas parameter changes in the stochastic excitation model, within a plausible domain of parameter space, have a comparatively small effect.  相似文献   

Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation     

Steven J. Ostro  Lance A. M. Benner  Christopher Magri  Jon D. Giorgini  Randy Rose  Raymond F. Jurgens  Donald K. Yeomans  Alice A. Hine  Michael C. Nolan  Daniel J. Scheeres  Stephen B. Broschart  Mikko Kaasalainen  Jean‐Luc Margot 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(11):1563-1574

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.  相似文献   

A note on Le Verrier's expansion of the disturbing function     

C. D. Murray 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1985,36(2):163-164

An examination of Le Verrier's seventh-order expansion of the disturbing function has revealed only one non-trivial error in Le Verrier's work. The error occurs in a sixth order term in the eccentricities.  相似文献   

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE     

K.A. MAASCH  P.A. MAYEWSKI  E.J. ROHLING  J.C. STAGER  W. KARLEN  L.D. MEEKER  E.A. MEYERSON 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):7-15

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.  相似文献   

Modelling the hydrodynamics of the Bohai Sea in China     

Wang Huatong  John D. Wang 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1985,3(2):185-199

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