Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Filippo Giorgi  Erika Coppola  Francesca Raffaele  Gulilat Tefera Diro  Ramon Fuentes-Franco  Graziano Giuliani  Ashu Mamgain  Marta Pereira Llopart  Laura Mariotti  Csaba Torma 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):39-51

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies.  相似文献   

Construction of Structural Geological Model Using Monte Carlo Simulation     

Xavier  Bruna Catarino  Egydio-Silva  Marcos  Sadowski  Georg Robert  de Assis Silva  Bruno  Takara  Victor Junji 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2022,40(3):1345-1361

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - To optimize the prediction of structural geological conditions in the underground as of data collected at the surface, due to the usual great uncertainties...  相似文献   

The status of measurement of the Mediterranean mean dynamic topography by geodetic techniques   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Philip L. Woodworth  Médéric Gravelle  Marta Marcos  Guy Wöppelmann  Chris W. Hughes 《Journal of Geodesy》2015,89(8):811-827

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On the angular distribution of IceCube high‐energy events     

R. de la Fuente Marcos  C. de la Fuente Marcos 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2015,336(7):657-664

The detection of high‐energy astro‐physical neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin by the IceCube neutrino observatory in Antarctica has opened a unique window to the cosmos that may help to probe both the distant Universe and our cosmic backyard. The arrival directions of these high‐energy events have been interpreted as uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Here, we revisit the topic of the putative isotropic angular distribution of these events applying Monte Carlo techniques to investigate a possible anisotropy. A modest evidence for anisotropy is found. An excess of events appears projected towards a section of the Local Void, where the density of galaxies with radial velocities below 3000 km s^–1 is rather low, suggesting that this particular group of somewhat clustered sources are located either very close to the Milky Way or perhaps beyond 40 Mpc. The results of further analyses of the subsample of southern hemisphere events favour an origin at cosmological distances with the arrival directions of the events organized in a fractal‐like structure. Although a small fraction of closer sources is possible, remote hierarchical structures appear to be the main source of these very energetic neutrinos. Some of the events may have their origin at the IBEX ribbon. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’     

Emily Tyler  Anya Boyd  Kim Coetzee  Marta Torres Gunfaus  Harald Winkler 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):770-776

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.  相似文献   

Dynamics of very rich open clusters     

R. de la Fuente Marcos  C. de la Fuente Marcos 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,280(4):381-404

The oldest open clusters in our Galaxy set the lower limit to the age of the Galactic Disk (9–10 Gyr). Although they appear to be very rich now, it is clear that their primordial populations were much larger. Often considered as transitional objects, these populous open clusters show structural differences with respect to globular clusters so their dynamics and characteristic evolutionary time scales can also be different. On the other hand, their large membership lead to different dynamical evolution as compared with average open clusters. In this paper, the differential features of the evolution of rich open clusters are studied using N-body simulations, including several of the largest (10⁴ stars) published direct collisional N-body calculations so far, which were performed on a CRAY YMP. The disruption rate of rich open clusters is analysed in detail and the effect of the initial spatial distribution of the stars in the cluster on its dynamics is studied. The results show that cluster life-time depends on this initial distribution, decreasing when it is more concentrated. The effect of stellar evolution on the dynamical evolution of rich clusters is an important subject that also has been considered here. We demonstrate that the cluster's life-expectancy against evaporation increases because of mass loss by evolving high-mass stars. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

On overestimation of displacements in numerical calculation of zoned dams     

Marta Dolealov 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1994,18(1):1-24

Overestimation of displacements in numerical calculations can occur if some requirements are not met by the constitutive relations. Along with consideration for small strain behaviour of soils¹ the stiffening effects of unloading in shear should be taken into account. The latter problem is analysed in the paper using embankment dams as a typical example. Strain and stress paths in their cores and shells were derived from field measurement results and frequent path direction changes during seemingly monotonic loading process were discovered. Proportional loading test results of isotropically and anisotropically consolidated sand allowed interpretation of the in situ paths by the incremental theory of plasticity and distinction between the sections where unloading and reloading in shear develop. Furthermore, the analysis of these tests showed a marked stiffening of the soil due to unloading as well as neutral loading in shear. The strain redistribution due to material inhomogeneity, either inherent or introduced by the loading process, was identified as a common reason for the frequent occurrence of this phenomenon. Consequently, overestimations in displacement calculations can be brought about by neglecting this important effect by the constitutive model used. Accordingly, the unit response envelopes of some typical constitutive laws have been checked from this special point of view, and the models properly describing this phenomenon selected.  相似文献   

The lyman alpha line in solar prominences     

Fontenla  Juan Manuel  Rovira  Marta 《Solar physics》1983,85(1):141-156

Solar Physics - We present simplified models for the region where Lα is formed, in the boundary between prominences and corona. The models were calculated by solving the radiation transfer in...  相似文献   

Lithosphere mechanical behavior inferred from tidal gravity anomalies: a comparison of Africa and South America     

Marta S.M. Mantovani  Wladimir Shukowsky  Silvio R.C. de Freitas  Benjamim B. Brito Neves 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,230(3-4):397-412

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Analysis of two active prominences     

Marcos E. Machado 《Solar physics》1972,23(2):353-359

We discuss the observations of two eruptive prominences, and the formation of condensations during the phenomena. The density and intensity variations of the condensations are analyzed spectroscopically in one of the events. Some hypothesis about the magnetic field configuration have been used in order to explain the observational data.  相似文献