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111.
Raúl Prellezo Paolo AccadiaJesper L. Andersen Bo S. AndersenErik Buisman Alyson LittleJ. Rasmus Nielsen Jan Jaap PoosJeff Powell Christine Röckmann 《Marine Policy》2012,36(2):423-431
The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models. 相似文献
112.
Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment. 相似文献
113.
Paolo S. Garofalo Mattias B. Fricker Detlef Günther Paolo Forti Anna-Maria Mercuri Mara Loreti Bruno Capaccioni 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(3-4):560-569
Three hypogenic caves within the Naica mine of Mexico (Cueva de los Cristales — CLC, Ojo de la Reina — OR, and Cueva de las Velas — CLV) host spectacular gypsum crystals up to 11 m in length. These caves are close to another shallow cave of the area (Cueva de las Espadas — CLE), with which they cover a 160 m-deep vertical section of the local drainage basin. Similar to other hypogenic caves, all these caves lack a direct connection with the land surface and should be unrelated with climate.A record of multi-technique fluid inclusion data and pollen spectra from cave and mine gypsum indicates surprisingly that climatic changes occurring at Naica could have controlled fluid composition in these caves, and hence crystal growth. Microthermometry and LA-ICP-Mass Spectrometry of fluid inclusions indicate that the shallow, chemically peculiar, saline fluid (up to 7.7 eq. wt.%NaCl) of CLE could have formed from evaporation, during a dry and hot climatic period. The fluid of the deep caves was instead of low salinity (~ 3.5 eq. wt.% NaCl) and chemically homogeneous, and was poorly affected by evaporation. We propose that mixing of these two fluids, generated at different depths of the Naica drainage basin, determined the stable supersaturation conditions for the gigantic gypsum crystals to grow. Fluid mixing was controlled by the hydraulic communication between CLE and the other deep caves, and must have taken place during cycles of warm-dry and fresh-wet climatic periods, which are known to have occurred in the region. Pollen grains from a 35 ka-old gypsum crystal of CLC corresponds to a fairly homogenous catchment basin made of a mixed broadleaf wet forest, which suggests precipitation during a fresh-wet climatic period and confirms our interpretation of the fluid inclusion data.The unusual combination of geological and geochemical factors of Naica suggests that other hypogenic caves found elsewhere may not host similar crystals. However, this work shows that fluid inclusions and pollen spectra represent a useful tool for cave studies in general, and if used in future studies might be essential to unravel the mechanisms of hypogenic deposition. 相似文献
114.
Andrew G. Bauman John A. Burt Elise Marquis Paolo Usseglio 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2117-2122
Tropical harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing in frequency and intensity and are substantially affecting marine communities. In October/November 2008 a large-scale HAB event (> 500 km2, dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides) in the Gulf of Oman caused the complete loss of the branching corals, Pocillopora and Acropora spp., and substantial reductions in the abundance, richness and trophic diversity of the associated coral reef fish communities. Although the causative agents of this C. polykrikoides bloom are unknown, increased coastal enrichment, natural oceanographic mechanisms, and the recent expansion of this species within ballast water discharge are expected to be the main agents. With rapid changes in oceanic climate, enhanced coastal eutrophication and increased global distribution of HAB species within ballast water, large-scale HAB events are predicted to increase dramatically in both intensity and distribution and can be expected to have increasingly negative effects on coral reef communities globally. 相似文献
115.
Paola Morasca Marco Massa Enrica Laprocina Kevin Mayeda Scott Phillips Luca Malagnini Daniele Spallarossa Giovanni Costa Paolo Augliera 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(4):727-738
A merged, high-quality waveform dataset from different seismic networks has been used to improve our understanding of lateral
seismic attenuation for Northern Italy. In a previous study on the same region, Morasca et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1936–1946,
2008) were able to resolve only a small area due to limited data coverage. For this reason, the interpretation of the attenuation
anomalies was difficult given the complexity of the region and the poor resolution of the available data. In order to better
understand the lateral changes in the crustal structure and thickness of this region, we selected 770 earthquakes recorded
by 54 stations for a total of almost 16,000 waveforms derived from seismic networks operating totally or partially in Northern
Italy. Direct S-wave and coda attenuation images were obtained using an amplitude ratio technique that eliminates source terms
from the formulation. Both direct and early-coda amplitudes are used as input for the inversions, and the results are compared.
Results were obtained for various frequency bands ranging between 0.3 and 25.0 Hz and in all cases show significant improvement
with respect to the previous study since the resolved area has been extended and more crossing paths have been used to image
smaller scale anomalies. Quality-factor estimates are consistent with the regional tectonic structure exhibiting a general
trend of low attenuation under the Po Plain basin and higher values for the Western Alps and Northern Apennines. The interpretation
of the results for the Eastern Alps is not simple, possibly because our resolution for this area is still not adequate to
resolve small-scale structures. 相似文献
116.
Prakash Mehra Michael N. Tsimplis R. G. Prabhudesai Antony Joseph Andrew G. P. Shaw Y. K. Somayajulu Paolo Cipollini 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(4):819-833
The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period
2007–2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well
as oceanographic data. Multilinear regression analysis is used to resolve the dependence of sea level on various forcing parameters.
The multilinear regression analysis performed over approx. 2-year data shows that the local surface meteorological data and
water temperature account for the sea level variability only up to 6%. The accounted sea level variability increases to 25%,
when the local wind and the surface currents obtained from satellite altimetry in the near vicinity of the study area are
incorporated in the regression analysis. The contribution of local wind increases substantially when the regression is performed
over a 2-month duration, and it is variable within the year. During the summer monsoon season (May–September), the sea level
variability attributable to wind is up to 47% and 75%, respectively, for 2007 and 2008; however, it reduces to <20% during
the winter monsoon (November–February) season. A significant part of the variability observed in sea level remains unaccounted
for and is attributed to remote forcing. 相似文献
117.
118.
Procedures for calibration of linear models for damage limitation in design of masonry‐infilled RC frames 下载免费PDF全文
Paolo Ricci Maria Teresa De Risi Gerardo Mario Verderame Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(8):1315-1335
Recent earthquakes have confirmed the role played by infills in the seismic response of reinforced concrete buildings. The control and limitation of damage to such nonstructural elements is a key issue in performance‐based earthquake engineering. The present work is focused on modeling and analysis of damage to infill panels, and, in particular, it is aimed towards linear analysis procedures for assessing the damage limitation limit state of infilled reinforced concrete frames. First, code provisions on infill modeling and acceptance criteria at the damage limitation limit state are reviewed. Literature contributions on damage to unreinforced masonry infill panels and corresponding displacement capacity are reported and discussed. Two procedures are then proposed aiming at a twofold goal: (i) the determination of ‘equivalent’ interstory drift ratio limits for a bare frame model and (ii) the estimation of the stiffness of equivalent struts representing infill walls in a linear model. These two quantities are determined such that a linear model ensures a reliable estimation of seismic capacity at the damage limitation limit state, providing the same intensity level as that obtained from nonlinear analyses carried out on structural models with infills. Finally, the proposed procedures are applied to four‐story and eight‐story case study‐infilled frames, designed for seismic loads according to current technical codes. The results of these application examples are presented and discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
119.
Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
120.