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181.
    
Sans résumé Inspecteur Général Géographe Secrétaire de la Section III-Astronomie Géodésique de l’Association Internationale de Géodésie  相似文献   
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Knowledge of the age of undated events is not null if a time-order relationship can be found among these events. The knowledge of such a time-ordered sequence can be formalized by using non-informative (uniform) prior probability densities for the ages of undated events and Bayes' theorem to introduce the time-order relationship condition. We show that the conditional probability densities of the ages of events of unknown age are given by various forms of Euler's beta distribution. These distributions yield an estimate of the probability for an undated event to occur in a given age interval.
  We use this method to propose appropriate probabilistic representations of our actual knowledge of the dating of the magnetic polarity reversals during the Cenozoic. These representations take into account the uncertainties arising from irregularities in accretion process and from the quality of a few calibration points. Both types of uncertainties generate large ambiguities in the age of magnetic reversals, which should be taken into consideration when the geomagnetic polarity timescale is used for dating purposes. We propose to use the entropy function to quantify these ambiguities.  相似文献   
185.
Modelling of local velocity anomalies: a cookbook   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The determination of small-scale velocity anomalies (from tens to a few hundreds of metres) is a major problem in seismic exploration. The impact of such anomalies on a structural interpretation can be dramatic and conventional techniques such as tomographic inversion or migration velocity analysis are powerless to resolve the ambiguity between structural and velocity origins of anomalies. We propose an alternative approach based on stochastic modelling of numerous anomalies until a set of models is found which can explain the real data. This technique attempts to include as much a priori geological information as possible. It aims at providing the interpreter with a set of velocity anomalies which could possibly be responsible for the structural response. The interpreter can then choose one or several preferred models and pursue a more sophisticated analysis. The class of retained models are all equivalent in terms of data and therefore represent the uncertainty in the model space. The procedure emulates the real processing sequence using a simplified scheme. Essentially, the technique consists of five steps: 1 Interpretation of a structural anomaly in terms of a velocity anomaly with its possible variations in terms of position, size and amplitude. 2 Drawing a model by choosing the parameters of the anomaly within the acceptable range. 3 Modelling the traveltimes in this model and producing the imaging of the reflected interface. 4 Comparing the synthetic data with the real data and keeping the model if it lies within the data uncertainty range. 5 Iterate from step 2. In order to avoid the high computational cost inherent in using statistical determinations, simplistic assumptions have been made: ? The anomaly is embedded in a homogeneous medium: we assume that the refraction and the time shift due to the anomaly have a first-order effect compared with ray bending in the intermediate layers. ? We model only the zero-offset rays and therefore we restrict ourselves to structural problems. ? We simulate time migration and so address only models of limited structural complexity. These approximations are justified in a synthetic model which includes strong lateral velocity variations, by comparing the result of a full processing sequence (prestack modelling, stack and depth migration) with the simplified processing. This model is then used in a blind test on the inversion scheme.  相似文献   
186.
Calcium hydroxyapatite and calcite precipitates around bacteria were observed in 2-week-old alluvial topsoil (Roussillon area, SE France). This observation prompted a laboratory study of Ca2+ and PO43− incorporation into hydroxyapatite and Ca2+ into calcite mediated by bacteria using similar topsoil material, but free from apatite and calcite. Subsamples were prepared using three different grain sizes, and experiments were undertaken using sucrose and different contents of Ca2+ and PO43−. Mineralization experiments proceeded over 5 days. Calcium and PO43− sorption onto clay influenced the Ca/P ratio in the solutions. Hydroxyapatite and calcite precipitation only occurred in unsterilized samples. The presence of clay minerals promoted biomineralization.  相似文献   
187.
Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.  相似文献   
188.
Regional frequency analysis is an important tool to properly estimate hydrological characteristics at ungauged or partially gauged sites in order to prevent hydrological disasters. The delineation of homogeneous groups of sites is an important first step in order to transfer information and obtain accurate quantile estimates at the target site. The Hosking–Wallis homogeneity test is usually used to test the homogeneity of the selected sites. Despite its usefulness and good power, it presents some drawbacks including the subjective choice of a parametric distribution for the data and a poorly justified rejection threshold. The present paper addresses these drawbacks by integrating nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test. To assess the rejection threshold, three resampling methods (permutation, bootstrap and Pólya resampling) are considered. Results indicate that permutation and bootstrap methods perform better than the parametric Hosking–Wallis test in terms of power as well as in time and procedure simplicity. A real-world case study shows that the nonparametric tests agree with the HW test concerning the homogeneity of the volume and the bivariate case while they disagree for the peak case, but that the assumptions of the HW test are not well respected.  相似文献   
189.
Bio-physical glider measurements from a unique process-oriented experiment in the Eastern Alboran Sea (AlborEx) allowed us to observe the distribution of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) across an intense density front, with a resolution (~ 400 m) suitable for investigating sub-mesoscale dynamics. This front, at the interface between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, had a sharp density gradient (Δρ ~ 1 kg/m3 in ~ 10 km) and showed imprints of (sub-)mesoscale phenomena on tracer distributions. Specifically, the chlorophyll-a concentration within the DCM showed a disrupted pattern along isopycnal surfaces, with patches bearing a relationship to the stratification (buoyancy frequency) at depths between 30 and 60 m. In order to estimate the primary production (PP) rate within the chlorophyll patches observed at the sub-surface, we applied the Morel and Andrè (J Geophys Res 96:685–698 1991) bio-optical model using the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) from Argo profiles collected simultaneously with glider data. The highest production was located concurrently with domed isopycnals on the fresh side of the front, suggestive that (sub-)mesoscale upwelling is carrying phytoplankton patches from less to more illuminated levels, with a contemporaneous delivering of nutrients. Integrated estimations of PP (1.3 g C m?2d?1) along the glider path are two to four times larger than the estimations obtained from satellite-based algorithms, i.e., derived from the 8-day composite fields extracted over the glider trip path. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling between instruments, the differences in PP estimations are mainly due to the inability of the satellite to measure DCM patches responsible for the high production. The deepest (depth > 60 m) chlorophyll patches are almost unproductive and probably transported passively (subducted) from upper productive layers. Finally, the relationship between primary production and oxygen is also investigated. The logarithm of the primary production in the DCM interior (chlorophyll (Chl) > 0.5 mg/m3) shows a linear negative relationship with the apparent oxygen utilization, confirming that high chlorophyll patches are productive. The slope of this relationship is different for Atlantic, mixed interface waters and Mediterranean waters, suggesting the presence of differences in planktonic communities (whether physiological, population, or community level should be object of further investigation) on the different sides of the front. In addition, the ratio of optical backscatter to Chl is high within the intermediate (mixed) waters, which is suggestive of large phytoplankton cells, and lower within the core of the Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. These observations highlight the relevance of fronts in triggering primary production at DCM level and shaping the characteristic patchiness of the pelagic domain. This gains further relevance considering the inadequacy of optical satellite sensors to observe DCM concentrations at such fine scales.  相似文献   
190.
This paper investigates the impact of rapid small-scale water vapor fluctuations on GPS height determination. Water vapor measurements from a Raman lidar are used for documenting the water vapor heterogeneities and correcting GPS signal propagation delays in clear sky conditions. We use data from four short observing sessions (6 h) during the VAPIC experiment (15 May–15 June 2004). The retrieval of wet delays from our Raman lidar is shown to agree well with radiosonde retrievals (bias and standard deviation (SD) were smaller than 1 and 2.8 mm, respectively) and microwave radiometers (from two different instruments, bias was 6.0/−6.6 mm and SD 1.3/3.8 mm). A standard GPS data analysis is shown to fail in accurately reproducing fast zenith wet delay (ZWD) variations. The ZWD estimates could be improved when mean post-fit phase residuals were removed. Several methodologies for integrating zenith lidar observations into the GPS data processing are also presented. The final method consists in using lidar wet delays for correcting a priori the GPS phase observations and estimating a scale factor for the lidar wet delays jointly with the GPS station position. The estimation of this scale factor allows correcting for a mis-calibration in the lidar data and provides in the same way an estimate of the Raman lidar instrument constant. The agreement of this constant with an independent determination using radiosonde data is at the level of 1–4%. The lidar wet delays were derived by ray-tracing from zenith pointing measurements: further improvement in GPS positioning is expected from slant path lidar measurements that would properly account for water vapor anisotropy.  相似文献   
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