Economy, Politics and Institutions: From Adaptation to Adaptive Management in Climate Change     

Alexander Thompson  Paul Robbins  Brent Sohngen  Joseph Arvai  Tomas Koontz 《Climatic change》2006,78(1):1-5

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Egg production of the copepodAcartia tonsa in Florida Bay during summer. 1. The roles of food environment and diet     

G. S. Kleppel  Carol A. Burkart  Carmelo Tomas 《Estuaries and Coasts》1998,21(2):328-339

The diet and egg production rate ofAcartia tonsa were measured during the thermally stable period between June and October 1995 at four locations in inner and outer Florida Bay. We sought to characterize the role ofA. tonsa in the bay’s pelagic food web, which has been changing since 1987, when the dominant submerged vegetation began shifting from benthic seagrasses to planktonic algae. At Rankin Lake, a shallow basin on the north side of the inner bay, where extensive seagrass mortality and persistent cyanobacteria blooms have occurred, microplankton biomass was relatively high and dominated by heterotrophic protists and dinoflagellates. Nanoplankton at Rankin, Lake, while numerically abundant, usually contributed only a small portion of the biomass. The ingestion rate ofA. tonsa in Florida Bay varied independently of food concentration (i.e., total microplankton biomass), but rates were higher (mean±SD =3.88 ± 0.73 μg C copepod^?1 d^?1) on the north side of the bay than on the south side (0.78 ±0.11 μg C copepod^?1 d^?1). Microzooplankton and dinoflagellates were important dietary constituents, especially in the vicinity of Rankin Lake. Egg production in this region (mean ± SD = 14.2 ± 7.7 eggs female^?1 d^?1) was considerably high than the baywide mean (5.8±0.81 eggs female^?1d^?1), and principal components analysis revealed associations between egg production and both dietary microzooplankton and dinoflagellate biomass. However, although grazing rates were relatively high in the inner bay,A. tonsa removed only 1–6% of the primary production from the water column during the summer and its egg production rates were low relative to typical rates for the species.  相似文献   

Benefits from increased cooperation and energy trade under CO₂ commitments—The Nordic case     

Thomas Unger  Tomas Ekvall 《Climate Policy》2003,3(3):279-294

In this paper, benefits from increasing cross-border cooperation under future CO₂ commitments in the Nordic countries are examined and evaluated. Four cooperative strategies are analyzed and valued separately: cross-border electricity trade, cross-border emission-permit trade, the introduction of a trans-Nordic natural gas transmission grid, and, finally, utilization of all these three strategies simultaneously. The valuation is done under varying CO₂ commitments and under three different scenarios for future energy demand and technological development. In conducting this analysis, the energy-systems model-generator MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) was used to model the Nordic energy system. It is shown that all cooperative strategies do lower the abatement costs considerably, especially if the strategy including full cooperation is utilized. In this case, additional costs from meeting CO₂ targets may be at least halved for commitments less than 10% reduction until 2050 based on emissions in 1995. No significant difference between low and high CO₂ commitments could be observed in the size of the benefits from cooperation, expressed in billions (10⁹) of Swedish crowns. Benefits from cooperation are generally larger for scenarios including relatively higher future energy demand.  相似文献   

Numerical studies on saltwater intrusion in a coastal aquifer in northwestern Germany   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Tomas Feseker 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):267-279

Saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers depends on the distribution of hydraulic properties, on the climate, and on human interference such as land reclamation. In order to analyze the key processes that control saltwater intrusion, a hypothetical steady-state salt distribution in a representative cross-section perpendicular to the coastline was calculated using a two-dimensional density-dependent solute transport model. The effects of changes in groundwater recharge, lowering of drainage levels, and a rising sea level on the shape and position of the freshwater/saltwater interface were modeled in separate simulations. The results show that the exchange of groundwater and surface water in the marsh areas is one of the key processes influencing saltwater intrusion. A rising sea level causes rapid progression of saltwater intrusion, whereas the drainage network compensates changes in groundwater recharge. The time scale of changes resulting from altered boundary conditions is on the order of decades and centuries, suggesting that the present-day salt distribution does not reflect a steady-state of equilibrium.  相似文献   

Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information     

Robert Tomas  Matthew Harrison  José I. Barredo  Florian Thomas  Miguel Llorente Isidro  Manuela Pfeiffer  Otakar Čerba 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(3):1545-1563

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Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability     

James A. Screen  Clara Deser  Ian Simmonds  Robert Tomas 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):333-344

The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relative magnitudes of the sea-ice forced change compared to natural atmospheric internal variability (AIV). This study analyses large ensembles of two independent atmospheric general circulation models in order to separate the forced response to historical Arctic sea-ice loss (1979–2009) from AIV, and to quantify signal-to-noise ratios. We also present results from a simulation with the sea-ice forcing roughly doubled in magnitude. In proximity to regions of sea-ice loss, we identify statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases, in autumn and winter in both models. In winter, both models exhibit a significant lowering of sea level pressure and geopotential height over the Arctic. All of these responses are broadly similar, but strengthened and/or more geographically extensive, when the sea-ice forcing is doubled in magnitude. Signal-to-noise ratios differ considerably between variables and locations. The temperature and precipitation responses are significantly easier to detect (higher signal-to-noise ratio) than the sea level pressure or geopotential height responses. Equally, the local response (i.e., in the vicinity of sea-ice loss) is easier to detect than the mid-latitude or upper-level responses. Based on our estimates of signal-to-noise, we conjecture that the local near-surface temperature and precipitation responses to past Arctic sea-ice loss exceed AIV and are detectable in observed records, but that the potential atmospheric circulation, upper-level and remote responses may be partially or wholly masked by AIV.  相似文献   

Weathering fluxes of arsenic from a small catchment in Slovak Republic   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ahmed Melegy  Igor Slaninka  Tomas Pa?es  Stanislav Rapant 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(2):549-555

Inputs of As to a small catchment due to chemical weathering of bedrock, mechanical weathering of bedrock, and atmospheric precipitation were 71.53, 23.98 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The output fluxes of As due to mechanical erosion of soil, biological uptake, stream discharge, and groundwater flow were 6.32, 4.77, 0.37 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The results indicate that arsenic accumulates in soil and regolith with a very high rate. This is attributed to the selective weathering and erosion with respect to arsenic and fixation of arsenic in the secondary solids produced by weathering. The output fluxes of As in stream and groundwater in Vydrica catchment in Slovak Republic (0.39 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) based on muscovite–biotite granites and granodiorites were much lower compared to catchments in a gold district in the Czech Republic. These results may be ascribed to the low levels of arsenic pollution measured in Vydrica catchment. The arsenic fluxes were estimated by calculation of mechanical and chemical weathering rates of the bedrocks in Vydrica catchment from mass balance data on sodium and silica. The justification of the steady state of Na and Si is that neither of the elements is appreciably accumulated in plants and in exchangeable pool of ions in soil.  相似文献   

Towards biomarker analysis of hydrocarbons trapped in individual fluid inclusions: First extraction by ErYAG laser     

Tomas Hode  Yngve Zebühr  Curt Broman   《Planetary and Space Science》2006,54(15):1575-1583

Fluid inclusions act as sealed vessels containing information about the fluid environment in which the minerals precipitated, and until decrepitated, the chemical composition of the fluid inside the inclusion stays intact. In many cases fluid inclusions contain trapped hydrocarbons, which may provide useful information in paleontological, organic geochemical and astrobiological research since they act as containers of non-contaminated organic matter with a defined minimum age. Here we present a novel concept for extraction of fluid inclusions in preparation for application to extract single fluid inclusions. The method is based on the illumination of a sample with an ErYAG laser (). The wavelength of the laser is absorbed by water and organic material, and with the minerals encapsulating the inclusions transparent to the wavelength, the fluid will expand and the inclusion will decrepitate. The initial results of our study demonstrate that fluid inclusions can be extracted by the use of an ErYAG laser, and that organic biomarkers may survive the process, readily available for GC–MS analysis.  相似文献   

Physically based hydrogeological and slope stability modeling of the Turaida castle mound     

Karlis Kukemilks  Jean-Frank Wagner  Tomas Saks  Philip Brunner 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2267-2278

This study explores the potential of integrating state-of-the-art physically based hydrogeological modeling into slope stability simulations to identify the hydrogeological triggers of landslides. Hydrogeological models considering detailed morphological, lithological, and climatic factors were elaborated. Groundwater modeling reveals locations with elevated pore water pressures in the subsurface and allows the quantification of temporal dynamics of the pore water pressures. Results of the hydrogeological modeling were subsequently applied as boundary conditions for the slope stability simulations. The numerical models illustrate that the hydrogeological impacts affecting hillslope stability are strongly controlled by local groundwater flow conditions and their conceptualization approach in the hydrogeological model. Groundwater flow itself is heavily influenced by the inherent geological conditions and the dynamics of climatic forcing. Therefore, both detailed investigation of the landslide’s hydrogeology and appropriate conceptualization and scaling of hydrogeological settings in a numerical model are essential to avoid an underestimation of the landslide risk. The study demonstrates the large potential in combining state-of-the-art computational hydrology with slope stability modeling in real-world cases.  相似文献   

Map presentation of changes in Europe’s artificial surfaces for the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2006     

Jan Feranec  Tomas Soukup 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(2):323-330

The landscapes of the world are constantly changing under the influence of human activities leading to the growth of artificial surfaces. The covering of soil by artificial surfaces is referred to as soil sealing. Aerial and satellite images or data derived from them (for instance CORINE land cover — CLC data used here) provide important information that makes it possible to assess the occurrence, area and rate of soil sealing. As the term sealed soil cannot be wholly identified with the content of the appropriate CLC classes, the term land cover flow urbanization (LCFU) will be used here. The essence of this study is the demonstration and documentation of the trends of the LCFU in Europe for the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 on a single map. This may contribute to a better spatial awareness of the ongoing transformation of landscape under the effects of human activities in an pan-European context. Changes in the LCFU can be seen on a map, compiled from 3 × 3 km squares at an all-European scale, using colours and their hues, to fulfil the role both of identification and classification. The colour method employed makes it possible to perceive three groups of LCFU changes on two time horizons, that is, whether the rate of LCFU in 2000–2006 increased or remained the same (hues of red); or dropped compared to the 1990–2000 period (hues of light to dark blue). The third group represents the LCFU with rates higher or lower than the average (countries with changes recorded in only one time horizon are presented in dark and light magenta colours).  相似文献