Climate change and stream water quality in the multi-factor context   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Valentina Krysanova 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):353-362

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A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments     

Julie A. Winkler  Suzanne Thornsbury  Marco Artavia  Frank-M. Chmielewski  Dieter Kirschke  Sangjun Lee  Malgorzata Liszewska  Scott Loveridge  Pang-Ning Tan  Sharon Zhong  Jeffrey A. Andresen  J. Roy Black  Robert Kurlus  Denys Nizalov  Nicole Olynk  Zbigniew Ustrnul  Costanza Zavalloni  Jeanne M. Bisanz  Géza Bujdosó  Lesley Fusina  Yvonne Henniges  Peter Hilsendegen  Katarzyna Lar  Lukasz Malarzewski  Thordis Moeller  Roman Murmylo  Tadeusz Niedzwiedz  Olena Nizalova  Haryono Prawiranata  Nikki Rothwell  Jenni van Ravensway  Harald von Witzke  Mollie Woods 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):445-470

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.  相似文献   

Production of gas from coal seams in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin in Poland in the post-injection period of an ECBM pilot site     

Frank van Bergen  Pawel Krzystolik  Niels van Wageningen  Henk Pagnier  Bartlomiej Jura  Jacek Skiba  Pascal Winthaegen  Zbigniew Kobiela 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2009,77(1-2):175-187

A pilot site for CO₂ storage in coal seams was set-up in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin in Poland in the scope of the RECOPOL project, funded by the European Commission. About 760 tons CO₂ were injected into the reservoir from August 2004 to June 2005. Breakthrough of the injected CO₂ was established, which resulted in the production of about 10% of the injected CO₂ in this period. This paper reports on activities performed under the European Commission project MOVECBM that aimed at the assessment of the storage performance of the reservoir in the follow-up period, i.e. whether the injected CO₂ was adsorbed onto the coal or whether it was still present as free gas in the pore space. The injection well was used for this purpose, as the production well had to be abandoned for permitting reasons. Several operational periods can be defined between the last injection in June 2005 and the abandonment of the well in October 2007. In the first period the well was shut-in to observe the pressure fall-off, from about 15.0 MPa at the wellhead after the last injection until about 4.5 MPa at the end of 2005. This pressure fall-off curve showed that the reservoir permeability was very low. This seemed to confirm the observed swelling of the coal during the injection period. In the first months of 2006 the pressure at the wellhead was decreased by releasing gas in a controlled way. The amount and composition of the gas were measured. As a result of the pressure reduction, the well flooded with water. A production pump was placed on the former injection well, enabling active production from the coal from March to September 2007. Results of these operations showed that whereas the gas production rates were as expected based on the experience with the production well, the water production was remarkably low. This could be related to permeability issues or, alternatively, indicate a drying effect of the CO₂ in the reservoir. Further, the gas composition showed a predominance of CO₂ over CH₄ during the gas release that changed gradually into a predominance of CH₄ over CO₂ during the production phase. Although stabilization was not reached within the given production period, the composition approached a 60% methane, 40% CO₂ ratio. This indicates that the exchange of these gases is more complex than often envisaged. After removal of the pump the well was filled with water, which ceased the gas release. This indicates that the pressure in the reservoir was back to its original, hydrostatic, state. As the total volume of CO₂ produced was only a fraction of the amount that was injected, it can be concluded that the CO₂ was taken up by the coal and is currently adsorbed. This gives confidence in the long-term stability of the injected CO₂.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

Wojciech Debski  Mark Grad  Andrea Lini  Wayne Robertson  Paul W. Reimus Ph.D.  Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(4):821-834

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Unified structural approach to linear flood routing     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  James C.I. Dooge 《Advances in water resources》1985,8(1):37-43

The structural theory of linear systems, which allows the non-homogeneous initial and boundary conditions to be expressed as part of a generalised system input, is applied to the problem of linear flood routing. The standardising functions needed to accomplish this are derived for three methods of lumped hydrologic flood routing (lag and route, Muskingum and Kalinin-Milyukov) and to three methods of distributed hydraulic flood routing (kinematic wave and two simplified forms of the linear St. Venant model). The appropriate Green's functions needed to complete the solution for these six cases are also presented.  相似文献   

Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track?     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Uwe Ulbrich  Tim brücher  Dariusz Graczyk  Andreas Krüger  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Lucas Menzel  Iwona Pińskwar  Maciej Radziejewski  Małgorzata Szwed 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):165-189

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings.  相似文献   

Fractal analysis of flow of the river Warta     

Maciej Radziejewski  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz   《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):280-294

A long time series (170 years) of daily flows of the river Warta (Poland) are subject to fractal analysis. A binary variable (renewal stream) illustrating excursions of the process of flow is examined. The raw series is subject to de-seasonalization and normalization. Fractal dimensions of crossings of Warta flows are determined using a novel variant of the box-counting method. Temporal variability of the flow process is studied by determination of fractal dimensions for shifted horizons of 10 or 30 years length. Spectral properties are compared between the time series of flows, and the fractional Brownian motion which describes both the fractal structure of the process and the Hurst phenomenon. The approach may be useful in further studies of non-stationary of the process of flow, analysis of extreme hydrological events and synthetic flow generation.  相似文献   

Local similarity in the convective boundary layer (CBL)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,45(3):237-250

The paper presents similarity hypotheses that in the CBL the structure of turbulence is described by two different sets of local scales, defined by local (z-dependent) values of governing parameters. Arguments for local scaling are presented and the form of the similarity functions is derived.  相似文献   

On the reliability of tower-shaped structures under seismic excitations     

Zbigniew Zembaty 《地震工程与结构动力学》1987,15(6):761-775

This paper considers the problem of random vibrations and the reliability of slender tower-shaped structures subjected to seismic excitations. Applying the concept of evolutionary spectra and the uniformly modulated random process as a model of strong ground motion, the response statistics are derived. Peak response values and reliability are then estimated. Results are related to Modified Mercalli and Arias intensities. With the aid of the Fast Fourier Transform technique a numerical analysis of peak response and reliability of a high-rise reinforced concrete chimney has been carried out. Results indicate the location of seismic failures in the upper half of the shaft of the chimney. Finally, the paper briefly examines the influence of strong motion duration on the peak response and reliability.  相似文献   

An examination of local similarity theory in the stably stratified boundary layer     

Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1987,38(1-2):63-71

A stable boundary layer is investigated in terms of local similarity theory. A study is based on a set of seven runs from the BAO tower (Colorado, U.S.A.). It is shown that a theoretical prediction of constant-with-height similarity functions applies only to ensemble-averaged quantities. Scatter of observational data is analysed.On leave from: Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw Technical University, 00653, Warsaw, Poland.  相似文献