Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction     

Norbert Kühl  Christoph Gebhardt  Thomas Litt  Andreas Hense 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):381

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

Seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment in the Laccadive (Lakshadweep) Sea as observed by the Coastal Zone Color scanner     

Lisa Jade Lierheimer  Karl Banse 《Journal of Earth System Science》2002,111(2):163-185

Based on Coastal Zone Color Scanner data from November 1978 through December 1981, the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton pigment in the upper part of the euphotic zone is established for the offshore Laccadive Sea. Year-round, the pigment content is low and the seasonal range is small, following the pattern of the nutrient-poor Arabian Sea to the west. Apparently, indigenous phytoplankton blooms are absent. July and August, however, were poorly studied because of cloud cover. Interannual differences during the northeast monsoon and the spring intermonsoon periods are minor. The abundant phytoplankton caused by the upwelling off India during the southwest monsoon remains essentially restricted to the shelf, but there are occasional large, zonal outbreaks into the Laccadive Sea, as well as others advected to the south of India. Visual inspection of the raw CZCS scenes for June through November 1982–1985, with almost no data until August or even September, shows such outbreaks of pigment-rich water to be common. Inspection of monthly SeaWiFS images for 1997 through part of 2001 confirms the absence of indigenous phytoplankton blooms.  相似文献   

Reproductive cycles of Mytilus edulis L. on the west and east coasts of Iceland     

Gudrun G. Thorarinsdóttir  Karl Gunnarsson 《Polar research》2003,22(2):217-223

Studies evaluating the reproductive pattern of Mytilus edulis L. were conducted in western and eastern Iceland at two sites at about the same latitude but with different temperature regimes. Mussels were sampled once or sometimes twice a month during two years in Breidifjördur, western Iceland and one year at Mjoifjördur, eastern Iceland. Gonad development was monitored by microscopic observation of thin sections of the gonads. The initiation of gonad development was observed in January in Breidifjördur while in Mjoifjördur some of the animals started developing gonads in October, a month before spawning was over in the population. Spawning started in late June or July, peaked in August and continued until November at both sites. Nutrient reserve stores seemed to be limited and used for initiation of gonad development in winter but were not sufficient for maturation of the gonads. The main growth of the gonads occured in spring in conjunction with phytoplankton blooming and renewal of food resources.  相似文献   

Inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges accounting for spatial variability of ground motion,site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena. Part 1: Methodology and analytical tools     

Anastasios G. Sextos  Kyriazis D. Pitilakis  Andreas J. Kappos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(4):607-627

During strong ground motion it is expected that extended structures (such as bridges) are subjected to excitation that varies along their longitudinal axis in terms of arrival time, amplitude and frequency content, a fact primarily attributed to the wave passage effect, the loss of coherency and the role of local site conditions. Furthermore, the foundation interacts with the soil and the superstructure, thus significantly affecting the dynamic response of the bridge. A general methodology is therefore set up and implemented into a computer code for deriving sets of appropriately modified time histories and spring–dashpot coefficients at each support of a bridge with account for spatial variability, local site conditions and soil–foundation–superstructure interaction, for the purposes of inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges. In order to validate the methodology and code developed, each stage of the proposed procedure is verified using recorded data, finite‐element analyses, alternative computer programs, previous research studies, and closed‐form solutions wherever available. The results establish an adequate degree of confidence in the use of the proposed methodology and code in further parametric analyses and seismic design. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges accounting for spatial variability of ground motion,site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena. Part 2: Parametric study     

Anastasios G. Sextos  Andreas J. Kappos  Kyriazis D. Pitilakis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(4):629-652

The methodology for dealing with spatial variability of ground motion, site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena in the context of inelastic dynamic analysis of bridge structures, and the associated analytical tools established and validated in a companion paper are used herein for a detailed parametric analysis, aiming to evaluate the importance of the above effects in seismic design. For a total of 20 bridge structures differing in terms of structural type (fundamental period, symmetry, regularity, abutment conditions, pier‐to‐deck connections), dimensions (span and overall length), and ground motion characteristics (earthquake frequency content and direction of excitation), the dynamic response corresponding to nine levels of increasing analysis complexity was calculated and compared with the ‘standard’ case of a fixed base, uniformly excited, elastic structure for which site effects were totally ignored. It is concluded that the dynamic response of RC bridges is indeed strongly affected by the coupling of the above phenomena that may adversely affect displacements and/or action effects under certain circumstances. Evidence is also presented that some bridge types are relatively more sensitive to the above phenomena, hence a more refined analysis approach should be considered in their case. Copyright @ 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Vergleichende mineralogische Untersuchungen an zwei tunesischen Phosphorit-Vorkommen: Mineralogical Comparison of Two Tunisian Phosphorite Occurrences     

Tarek Hachicha  Andreas Heil 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2003,63(3):247-263

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Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment     

Edward A. Parson  Robert W. Corell  Eric J. Barron  Virginia Burkett  Anthony Janetos  Linda Joyce  Thomas R. Karl  Michael C. MacCracken  Jerry Melillo  M. Granger Morgan  David S. Schimel  Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.  相似文献   

Analysis of DNAPL infiltration in a medium with a low-permeable lens     

M.J. de Neef  J. Molenaar 《Computational Geosciences》1997,1(2):191-214

In this paper we study the infiltration of DNAPL in a porous medium containing a single low-permeable lens. Our aim is to determine whether or not DNAPL infiltrates into the lens. A key role is played by the capillary pressure: DNAPL cannot infiltrate into the lens unless the capillary pressure exceeds the entry pressure of the lens. In the model this is reflected by an interface condition, the extended capillary pressure condition. To derive analytical approximations we first consider a steady-state DNAPL plume in a homogeneous medium. This results in an estimate of the DNAPL plume width as a function of depth, and an asymptotic solution for small saturations. Assuming that the extent of the lens is much larger than the width of the unperturbed DNAPL plume in the homogeneous medium, we derive an explicit criterion for DNAPL infiltration into the lens in terms of a critical inflow rate. A numerical algorithm is presented in which the extended capillary pressure condition is incorporated. The numerical and analytical results show good qualitative agreement. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Genesis and distribution of mineral waters as a consequence of recent lithospheric dynamics: the Rhenish Massif,Central Europe     

Franz May  Stephan Hoernes  Horst J. Neugebauer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1996,85(4):782-799

Three major, interdependent processes control the genesis and distribution of mineral and thermal waters in the Rhenish Massif, Central Europe: (a) Magmatic processes in the upper mantle provide most of the CO₂ to produce bicarbonate waters in shallow aquifers. (b) Extension of the brittle upper crust enables the ascent of sodium chloride waters. (c) Uplift and erosion shape the massif's relief, which determines the extent of flow systems and the distribution of thermal springs. The chemistry of mineral waters further depends on the aquifers' mineral composition. A comprehensive set of hydrological, chemical, tectonic and geophysical data on the Rhenish Massif has been compiled. It was used to classify the mineral waters and to map the spatial distribution of water properties. The composition of cuttings from several representative wells producing different water types shows that the hydrothermal alteration of the aquifer rocks consists mainly of kaolinization of chlorite and dissolution of feldspar. Numerical transport simulations favour two modes of groundwater flow: topography-driven flow and the pressure-driven ascent of basement brines along active faults. Thermal convection is less important.  相似文献   

The color of pumice: case study on a trachytic fall deposit, Meidob volcanic field, Sudan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

H. Paulick  G. Franz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1997,59(3):171-185

 This paper examines the cause of color variations of trachytic pumices which are essentially uniform in chemical composition and proposes a geological model for their formation. A pyroclastic sequence of distinct subunits with brown, buff, and black pumices was deposited during the 5000-B.P. eruption of a tuff ring in the central Meidob volcanic field (Sudan). Subunits of buff pumices locally contain minor amounts of streaky pumice with pale-gray and dark-gray domains. The combined evidence of petrographic studies, chemical analyses of whole pumices and groundmass separates, electron microprobe analyses, optical spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and magnetic susceptibility measurements show that color variations of the pumice clasts are related to the size and distribution of Fe³⁺-rich oxide microcrysts. Buff pumice and light-gray domains of streaky pumice have a colorless, transparent groundmass with very few microcrysts. Dark-gray domains of streaky pumice contain abundant hematite and/or magnetite microcrysts visible in thin section within a transparent, colorless glass groundmass. The groundmass of the black pumice clasts is brown in thin section which is most likely caused by submicroscopic magnetite microcrysts. Brown pumice clasts have a mixed groundmass consisting of brown domains and domains with opaque microcrysts in transparent glass. Variations in the eruption dynamics have been inferred from lithological observations. Subunits of black pumices are related to eruption pulses with low magma discharge and high water/magma mass ratio, whereas subunits of buff pumice were deposited during eruption pulses with high magma discharge and low water/magma mass ratio. Brown pumices represent the top part of the magma body, and the initial stage of the eruption probably had a low magma discharge. Streaky pumices are interpreted as the product of syn-eruptive mixing of Fe³⁺-rich oxide microcryst-bearing magma and microcryst-free magma. Received: 3 February 1997 / Accepted: 28 July 1997  相似文献