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991.
世界应力图(WSM,World Stress Map)计划的应力指标,目前已累积数据共计10 920个,这些应力指标代表了该地区最大水平主应力的实际观测方向;与此同时,可以假定全球各个板块的绝对运动方向表征了相应各板块的最大水平主应力方向的长波分量.根据应力场的叠加原理,得到由该地区局部构造运动等因素贡献的短波分量的相对大小和方向.将全球划分成2.52.5的基本单元,对每个单元的WSM数据进行加权统计分析,得到其平均应力观测取向,利用HS2-NUVEL1全球绝对板块运动模型计算应力场的长波分量;平均观测应力取向和长波分量取向之间的夹角,决定了相应短波分量相对于观测应力场的大小及其取向的范围,并反映了特定研究地区局部应力场对总应力场的贡献程度.本文的计算结果表明,全球板块的绝大部分地区及各板块的平均效果,长波分量与短波分量对观测应力场的贡献程度相当.对于某些大陆板块内部,局部构造活动对观测应力场的贡献起到重要作用,因而控制着地震的孕育与发生. 相似文献
992.
为了研究1996年丽江MS7.0地震前地震孕育过程或前兆表现,利用滇西地震实验场内高精度重复重力观测数据,结合地质调查和地球物理推断结果,并考虑到观测数据和模型粗差, 采用稳健或抗差-贝叶斯最小二乘算法和多断层位错模型,首次初步反演获得了研究区主要活动断裂滑动的时间变化分布.结果表明,1990~1997年断层运动的时间变化,较好地反映了1996年丽江MS7.0地震孕育过程.其主要前兆模式图象具有主震余震型特征,遵循地壳内部密度和地壳形变耦合运动模式(简称DD耦合运动模式). 相似文献
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Summary ?Using the data of 6 automatic heat balance observation (AWS) stations and a data set of 52 surface observation stations over
the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (“the Plateau”) and surroundings, the horizontal distribution is studied of “apparent atmospheric heat sources” 〈Q
1〉 and of “apparent atmospheric moisture sinks” 〈Q
2〉. The AWS stations were established during the period May to August 1998 of the Tibetan Plateau Meteorological Experiment
(second TIPEX) by a cooperation of China and Japan. For this period the Plateau mean of 〈Q
1〉 is positive. Its value of 74 W/m2 is a little greater than a climate value and than values from MONEX and the first TIPEX in 1979, respectively. Also the corresponding
〈Q
2〉 is positive. Hence during that time the Plateau is a heat source and a moisture sink. A day-to-day change of 〈Q
1〉 and 〈Q
2〉 is more pronounced over the middle and east part of the Plateau than over the west part.
Diagnostics accompanied by numerical simulations are used to study the daily relationship between 〈Q
1〉 over the Plateau and the weather over China and Asia for this summer. The results suggest that 〈Q
1〉 may affect precipitation over northern China and position of the west Pacific subtropical high. Abnormal southward retreat
of this Pacific high seems to have caused the second flood over the middle and lower Yangtse river basin in July.
Received May 20, 2001; revised February 2, 2002 相似文献
1000.
Numerical simulation of a South China Sea typhoon Leo (1999) 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
K.-H. Lau Z.-F. Zhang H.-Y. Lam S.-J. Chen 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,83(3-4):147-161
Summary ?A South China Sea typhoon, Leo (1999), was simulated using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 with the Betts-Miller
convective parameterization scheme (BMEX). The simulation had two nested domains with resolutions at 54 and 18 km, and the
forecast duration was 36 hours. The model was quite successful in predicting the track, the rapid deepening, the central pressure,
and the maximum wind speed of typhoon Leo as verified with reports from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The structure of
the eye, the eye wall, and the spiral convective cloud band simulated in the model are found to be comparable to corresponding
features identified in satellite images for the storm, and also with those reported by other authors.
A trajectory analysis was performed. Three kinds of trajectory were found: (1) spirally rising trajectories near the eye wall;
(2) spirally rising/descending trajectories in the convective/cloud free belt; (3) straight and fast rising trajectories in
a heavy convection zone along one of the cloud bands on the periphery of the tropical cyclone.
Both the HKO and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported the rapid deepening of Leo started around 00 UTC 29
April. In the model, the eye was first formed in the lower troposphere, and it extended to the upper troposphere within a
few hours. We speculate that the spin-up of cyclonic rotation in the low-level eye enhanced the positive vorticity along the
low-level eye wall. The positive vorticity was then transported to the upper troposphere by convection, leading to an extension
and growth of the eye into the upper troposphere.
To examine the impact of convective parameterization scheme (CPS) on the simulation, the Grell scheme (GLEX) was also tested.
The GLEX predicted a weaker typhoon with a wilder eye that extended not as high up in the upper troposphere as BMEX. The different
structures of the eye between the BMEX and GLEX suggest that the mesoscale features of the eye are dependent on the convection.
In other words, the vertical and horizontal distribution of convective heating is essential to the development and structure
of the eye.
Received December 18, 2001; accepted May 7, 2002
Published online: March 20, 2003 相似文献