沙尘天气、尘卷风对沙漠地区起沙量的贡献   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘莹  韩永翔  杨文清  罗汉  刘宁  刘唯佳 《中国沙漠》2018,38(6):1175-1179

降尘量能很好地反映整层沙尘气溶胶的信息。基于WRF/Chem沙尘暴模式及大气边界层的观测资料,获得了包括尘卷风起沙过程的日、月和年总起沙量,进而分析它们与自然降尘量之间的关系。结果表明:(1)半定量的沙尘天气日数与逐月降尘量呈极显著的正相关,但无法更精细地量化降尘量的来源;(2)模式量化计算的沙尘天气起沙量与降尘量的变化大体一致,它对总起沙量的平均贡献率为76%;(3)尘卷风对总起沙量的贡献达到了24%,在无沙尘天气的时段,降尘量100%来自尘卷风的起沙量;(4)沙尘天气和尘卷风构成的总起沙量和降尘量在月、年变化都有极其显著的正相关,均通过了0.001极显著检验。  相似文献   

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Jiaxiu Li  Yaning Chen  Zhi Li  Zhihui Liu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(7):1001-1019

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.  相似文献   

Daily extreme precipitation indices and their impacts on rice yield—A case study over the tropical island in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Li  Mao-Fen  Luo  Wei  Li  Hailiang  Liu  Enping  Li  Yuping 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):503-513

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on agricultural production. Tropical agriculture has been playing an important...  相似文献   

Analysis of Paths and Sources of Moisture for the South China Rainfall during the Presummer Rainy Season of 1979–2014     

Yangruixue Chen  Yali Luo 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(5):744-757

The paths and sources of moisture supplied to South China during two periods of the presummer rainy season (April–June) of 1979–2014, i.e., before and after the onset of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS), are investigated by using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. During the premonsoon-onset period, the moisture transport trajectories are clustered into 6 groups, with four ocean-originating paths providing 83.9% and two continent-originating paths (originating over Lake Baikal and the Persian Gulf) contributing the remaining 16.1% of the total moisture. The two Pacific-originating paths, from the western Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea, combined account for about 46%, the SCS-originating path contributes about 24.3%, while the Bay of Bengal-originating path accounts for 13.6% of the total moisture over South China. The trajectories during the postmonsoon-onset period are clustered into 4 groups, with three southwesterly paths (from the Arabian Sea, the central Indian Ocean, and the western Indian Ocean, respectively) accounting for more than 76% and the sole Pacific-originating path accounting for 23.8% of the total moisture. The formation of the moisture transport trajectories is substantially affected by the topography, especially the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian and Indo–China Peninsulas. The SCS region contributes the most moisture during both periods (35.3% and 31.1%). The Pacific Ocean is ranked second during the former period (about 21.0%) but its contribution is reduced to 5.0% during the latter period, while the contribution from the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean combined increases from 17.1% to 43.2%.  相似文献   

公路积水阻断与降雨关系的探讨   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

田华  王志  戴至修  李宛育 《气象》2018,44(5):684-691

利用2011—2013年全国公路积水阻断资料,分析了公路积水阻断的时空分布特征,并对公路积水阻断与不同时效降雨的关系进行了探讨。结果表明,公路积水阻断事件发生时间主要集中在5—9月,其中7月最为频繁,公路积水阻断事件以07:00—14:00为第一多发时段,16:00—20:00为次多发时段。公路积水阻断与前24h内的降水关系更为密切。区域不同,公路积水阻断随各强度降水变化的特点也不尽相同。经过开立方根处理后的降水因子与公路积水阻断发生的频次服从于高斯分布。其中,区域1公路积水阻断与处理后的1h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数大于0.91;区域2和3公路积水阻断与处理后的6h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数均在0.8以上;区域4公路积水阻断则与处理后的24h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数在0.75左右。对于任何一个区域,诱发公路积水阻断的不同时效降水都处于一个较大的空间。对于给定的降水量只能判断公路积水阻断发生的可能性大小。  相似文献   

The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC     

Han Chen  Lining Wang  Yong Luo  Yu Wang  Sheng Zhou 《Climate Policy》2018,18(7):852-862

To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO₂, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to ?2.4?Gt, ?0.7?Gt and ?0.2?Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100.

Key policy insights

• President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.

• To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas.

• Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

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公路路面热效应对环境气温的影响分析     

罗丽  郭建侠  陈一枝  贾红莉  薛春芳  郭江峰  严家德 《气象科技》2018,46(2):403-411

为定量研究公路对气温观测的影响,本文使用2014年1—5月在陕西省开展的两组公路观测试验的逐分钟温度、风向、风速等气象资料,对比分析了合阳县国道和渭蒲高速公路在不同季节、不同天空状况以及不同背景风速条件下对周围环境气温观测的影响程度和影响距离。试验结果表明:公路对周围的环境温度有一定的增温影响,合阳国道对环境温度的增温影响至75m,增温效应达0.25~0.4℃。高速公路的增温影响至125m,增温效应达0.2~0.4℃。冬季,两条公路白天增温效应较夜间明显,春季,高速公路夜间增温更明显。晴天、多云天气比阴天、降雨天气增温程度大。公路对气温的增温影响存在风速阈值,当风速小于对应阈值时,增温效应明显。公路上来往车流量对气温有一定的叠加增温影响,合阳国道白天车流量150~350辆,叠加增温效应0.05~0.1℃,蒲渭高速白天车流量2000~3500辆,叠加增温效应0.16℃。  相似文献   

2015—2016年深圳地区强降水过程滴谱特征分析     

卢超  罗红艳  李磊  高瑞泉  陈元昭 《气象科技》2018,46(3):563-567

选取2015—2016年广东深圳地区的强降水过程为研究对象,降水过程按照天气条件划分为西风带型、西南季风型和热带气旋型,利用Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪和雨量筒测得的数据对广东深圳地区降水的微物理特征进行分析,结果表明：在不同降水量级的情况下,激光雨滴谱仪与雨量筒测得的分钟雨量都具有较好的对应关系,表明激光雨滴谱仪能够适应深圳地区多暴雨的环境;热带气旋带来的降水小粒径雨滴密度最大,大粒径雨滴密度最小,整个降水过程较为绵密;西南季风带来的降水小粒径雨滴密度最小,大粒径雨滴密度最大,整个降水显得很急促;西风带型降水的特征则介于前两者之间。  相似文献   

四川省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析     

郑飒飒  杨佑洪  刘志  刘晓璐 《气象科技》2018,46(6):1280-1286

利用四川省数字高程模型(DEM)和1970—2014年四川省143个气象站点45年冰雹资料,使用相关分析、逐步回归、数字地形分析和分区统计等方法,研究了四川省冰雹分布与地形高程、坡度、坡向、经纬度、地形起伏度及地形切割深度的关系。研究结果表明:四川省冰雹分布有明显的地理分布特征,地形高程、经度、地形起伏度及西北偏西坡向等地形因子是四川省冰雹分布的主要影响因子。建立冰雹与主要地形影响因子的回归方程,模拟四川省冰雹空间分布,结果显示模拟值与实际值分布趋势一致,但模拟数据整体偏小。  相似文献   

衡阳风变化及风能蕴藏量评估          下载免费PDF全文

陈涛  袁智生  李超  何炜炜  罗喜光 《中低纬山地气象》2018,42(5):65-69

利用衡阳9站1970—2016年测风数据,通过气候倾向率分析风速年、年代际变化,M-K检验风速突变年份,运用有效风能密度评估各区域风能蕴藏量,其结论如下:衡阳风速总体呈下降趋势,衡山减少最明显,风速减少极显著区域未出现突变;低海拔区风速集中在0～3. 4 m/s(85. 8%),1991—2016年风频两极分化,低速及高速区增多,中间出现断层。南岳山风速范围广,2005—2016年强风频区有缺失,主风频在3～5区间;2010年全面采用高灵敏度自动测风仪,低海拔区静风迅速减少;按照有效风能密度定义,南岳山风能丰富,低海拔区未达到可利用标准。  相似文献