An integrated Bayesian approach to the probabilistic tsunami risk model for the location and magnitude of earthquakes: application to the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula     

Kwan-Hyuck?Kim  Yong-Sik?Cho  Hyun-Han?KwonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(5):1243-1257

We explored the distributional changes in tsunami height along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula resulting from virtual and historical tsunami earthquakes. The results confirm significant distributional changes in tsunami height depending on the location and magnitude of earthquakes. We further developed a statistical model to jointly analyse tsunami heights from multiple events, considering the functional relationships; we estimated parameters conveying earthquake characteristics in a Weibull distribution, all within a Bayesian regression framework. We found the proposed model effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami hazard analysis from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Specifically, several applications presented in this study showed that the proposed Bayesian approach has the advantage of conveying the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and its substantial effect on estimating tsunami risk.  相似文献   

Probabilistic spatial prediction of categorical data using elliptical copulas     

Xiang?HuangView author&#;s OrcID profile  Zhizhong?WangEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1631-1644

This study uses elliptical copulas and transition probabilities for uncertainty modeling of categorical spatial data. It begins by discussing the expressions of the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of two major elliptical copulas: Gaussian copula and t copula. The basic form of spatial copula discriminant function is then derived based on Bayes’ theorem, which consists of three parts: the prior probability, the conditional marginal densities, and the conditional copula density. Finally, three kinds of parameter estimation methods are discussed, including maximum likelihood estimation, inference functions for margins and canonical maximum likelihood (CML). To avoid making assumptions on the form of marginal distributions, the CML approach is adopted in the real-world case study. Results show that the occurrence probability maps generated by these two elliptical copulas are similar to each other. However, the prediction map interpolated by Gaussian copula has a relatively higher classification accuracy than t copula.  相似文献   

Statistical scale-up of 3D particle-tracking simulation for non-Fickian dispersive solute transport modeling     

Vikrant?Vishal  Juliana?Y.?LeungEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2075-2091

Numerical techniques for subsurface flow and transport modeling are often limited by computational limitations including fine mesh and small time steps to control artificial dispersion. Particle-tracking simulation offers a robust alternative for modeling solute transport in subsurface formations. However, the modeling scale usually differs substantially from the rock measurement scale, and the scale-up of measurements have to be made accounting for the pattern of spatial heterogeneity exhibited at different scales. Therefore, it is important to construct accurate coarse-scale simulations that are capable of capturing the uncertainties in reservoir and transport attributes due to scale-up. A statistical scale-up procedure developed in our previous work is extended by considering the effects of unresolved (residual) heterogeneity below the resolution of the finest modeling scale in 3D. First, a scale-up procedure based on the concept of volume variance is employed to construct realizations of permeability and porosity at the (coarse) transport modeling scale, at which flow or transport simulation is performed. Next, to compute various effective transport parameters, a series of realizations exhibiting detailed heterogeneities at the fine scale, whose domain size is the same as the transport modeling scale, are generated. These realizations are subjected to a hybrid particle-tracking simulation. Probabilistic transition time is considered, borrowing the idea from the continuous time random walk (CTRW) technique to account for any sub-scale heterogeneity at the fine scale level. The approach is validated against analytical solutions and general CTRW formulation. Finally, coarse-scale transport variables (i.e., dispersivities and parameterization of transition time distribution) are calibrated by minimizing the mismatch in effluent history with the equivalent averaged models. Construction of conditional probability distributions of effective parameters is facilitated by integrating the results over the entire suite of realizations. The proposed method is flexible, as it does not invoke any explicit assumption regarding the multivariate distribution of the heterogeneity. In contrast to other hierarchical CTRW formulation for modeling multi-scale heterogeneities, the proposed approach does not impose any length scale requirement regarding sub-grid heterogeneities. In fact, it aims to capture the uncertainty in effective reservoir and transport properties due to the presence of heterogeneity at the intermediate scale, which is larger than the finest resolution of heterogeneity but smaller than the representative elementary volume, but it is often comparable to the transport modeling scale.  相似文献   

基于SMA连接件的半刚接钢框架-混凝土墙结构滞回性能试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

崔迪  王圳颖  孙丽  崔朦朦  崔晓波  吴聪 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):044-53

针对半刚接钢框架-混凝土墙(PSRCW)结构中连接件易发生疲劳断裂的问题,利用形状记忆合金(SMA)制成连接件并将其应用到PSRCW结构中。对4个2层单跨PSRCW结构试件在水平低周往复荷载作用下的抗震性能进行了试验研究。根据试验现象分析了各试件的受力破坏过程,研究了连接件类型、尺寸和布置位置对各试件的滞回性能、耗能能力、强度、刚度、延性和变形恢复能力的影响。试验结果表明:基于SMA连接件的PSRCW结构整体性较好、耗能能力强、结构强度退化具有2个平台阶段、刚度退化较为缓慢、延性好和结构具有较强的变形恢复能力。同时,增大SMA连接件的直径可以提高结构的承载能力、初始刚度和延性;在框架梁柱与内填墙交界面间均布置SMA连接件时,结构整体性最好,强度退化缓慢,延性好。因此,将SMA连接件应用于PSRCW结构中,对于改善钢混组合结构的力学性能有一定的理论意义和实用价值。  相似文献   

钢桁架(ST)约束混凝土组合柱抗震性能研究          下载免费PDF全文

史庆轩  盛广彦  戎翀  陈云枭 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):062-72

目前,组合柱在建筑结构中进行了广泛应用和研究,研究表明:截面形式对组合柱的抗震性能有很大影响。首先,对钢桁架(ST)约束混凝土组合柱进行了试验研究。并在此基础上,利用有限元软件ABAQUS建立了数值分析模型;其次,基于数值分析模型,分析了组合柱中各部件的应力应变状态,分别考察了轴压比、缀板排列方式、体积配箍率、角钢肢宽与肢厚等因素对柱抗震性能的影响;最后,给出了组合柱在不同抗震等级下轴压比限值的建议值,可为后续组合柱的研究提供参考。研究表明:随着轴压比的增大,组合柱的延性变差,承载力先增大后减小;合理的缀板排列方式可有效抑制角钢的局部屈曲;随着体积配箍率的增大,组合柱的承载力有一定提升,延性提高较为显著;随着角钢肢宽和肢厚的增加,组合柱的承载力和延性均有显著提升。  相似文献   

震动诱发煤矿瓦斯灾害预警初步研究          下载免费PDF全文

孟上九  杨文瀚  李宏宇  王淼  孙义强 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):218-228

矿区震动能诱发多种灾害,以瓦斯突出尤为严重。以鹤岗矿区为研究对象,统计了历年来鹤岗地区地震及矿震活动规模,分析了以往典型的矿震引起的瓦斯灾害事例,总结了矿震作用下瓦斯灾害的机理,基于统计数据,提出了矿震瓦斯灾害预警需要解决的关键问题。初步研究表明:震动事件与煤矿灾害之间具有很强的关联性,呈现震动在前、灾害在后、时间间隔数分钟至数日不等的“先震后灾”的特点,基于此,通过建立矿震监测台网,给出了震动诱发煤矿瓦斯灾害预警可行性,并提出了震动引起瓦斯灾害预警思路。  相似文献   

饱和地基中空沟近场隔振的现场试验与二维半解析边界元分析          下载免费PDF全文

孙连勇  时刚  崔新壮  卢晓峰  宋洋  王兴云  甘晓丽 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):229-240

动力机器运行和车辆行驶等会产生振动污染,危及邻近建筑物安全和干扰精密仪器设备正常运行等。这些振动污染可通过在地基中设置空沟的方式来降低或消除。针对饱和地基上明置动力机器基础的环境振动影响及空沟近场隔振问题,进行了饱和地基上空沟近场隔振的现场试验,并对试验结果进行了无量纲化分析;基于饱和土半解析边界元法,分别推导了动力机器基础环境振动影响和空沟近场隔振的边界元方程;在此基础上,详细研究了空沟对动力机器基础振动影响的隔振效果,分析了空沟深度、宽度和距振源距离对其隔振效果的影响。结果表明:空沟能够有效的降低动力机器基础的环境振动影响;空沟宽度对其隔振效果影响相对较小,而空沟深度对其隔振效果影响较大,为获得较好的隔振效果,空沟深度建议取1倍Rayleigh波波长;空沟距振源距离对其隔振效果也有较大影响,距离越远则隔振效果也越好,当被保护建筑距振源较远时,建议空沟在被保护建筑附近设置。此外,在某些特殊情况下,空沟隔振系统会由于共振现象而出现隔振效果劣化的现象,在工程设计中应予以注意。  相似文献   

装配式剪力墙竖向钢筋套筒注浆连接试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

任宏伟  严珊  王思远 《世界地震工程》2020,(1):093-100

通过高应力反复拉压试验,研究了18个钢筋套筒注浆连接试件的破坏形态和套筒的应变,并对钢筋套筒注浆连接试件的屈服强度、极限强度和钢筋接头的等级进行了分析。结果表明:连接试件发生钢筋拉断和粘结破坏2种破坏形态,其屈服强度和极限强度均与钢筋母材强度相接近,另外钢筋连接采用套筒注浆的方式施工便捷和合理可靠,并通过对试验数据分析,给出了直径为12mm和14mm的HRB400钢筋采用此套筒注浆方式连接时套筒参数的建议值,为钢筋套筒注浆连接在装配式剪力墙中的设计和应用研究提供了一定的参考借鉴。  相似文献   

核心筒抗震性能水准及变形限值研究          下载免费PDF全文

胡张齐  汪梦甫  罗丹  吕伟荣 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):092-100

为研究核心筒抗震性能水准及其指标限值,完成了3个核心筒拟静力试验,记录了损伤过程及对应的层间位移角。在现有核心筒研究成果及国内外规范的基础上,将核心筒的抗震性能水准划分为4个等级,并给出了相应的宏观描述。通过总结相关试验研究结果,发现《建筑抗震设计规范》(GB50011-2010)对层间位移角限制过于严格,考虑到结构带裂缝工作,层间位移角限制过严会增加建筑成本,并导致结构自重增加而不利于抗震,故建议适当放宽核心筒的层间位移角限值,分别给出框架-核心筒及筒中筒结构最大层间位移角建议值。  相似文献   

大底盘双塔结构风振控制研究分析          下载免费PDF全文

吕慧敏  杨德健  薛娜蕾 《世界地震工程》2020,(2):101-110

大底盘多塔超过一定高度时属于复杂超高限结构,这类结构风工程研究多涉及风洞试验或理论研究,过程复杂且应用局限。以宁夏悦海新天地为工程背景,在ETABS建立悦海新天地双塔模型为风控对象。在空间相关性基础上,以自回归过滤技术模拟10a、50a和100a重现期风压下随机脉动风载。由相关资料确定研究对象最不利风向角,在该风向角下动力输入模拟脉动风载。对双塔结构分塔定义,输出T1和T2两个方向风振响应。结合工程提出在设备层布设5种不同黏滞阻尼器位移增效机构,确定最优安装形式。并对比在设备层以最优安装形式布设黏滞阻尼器位移增效机构、顶层布设多调谐质量阻尼器和混合控制法的减振效果。结果表明:3种风振控制措施均有效衰减结构风致振动,其中混合控制法为优控方案。  相似文献