台风登陆前后异常变化的研究进展   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

端义宏  陈联寿  梁建茵  王元  吴立广  崔晓鹏  马雷鸣  李青青 《气象学报》2014,72(5):969-986

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目——“台风登陆前后异常变化及机理研究”经过5年（2009—2013年）的研究完成研究任务。项目系统性地开展了16个台风的外场观测试验,在浅水区的海气拖曳系数、边界层高度变化等方面获得新的观测结果;发展了针对登陆台风的多源资料融合方法,例如台风雷达风场反演和同化技术取得进展;揭示了不同尺度系统活动导致台风路径突变、登陆台风复苏、双眼壁的形成等的物理机制;改进了涡旋初始化和积云对流参数化技术,提出了新的云辐射参数化方案,建立了台风海-陆-气耦合模式,台风数值预报关键技术的研发取得明显进展,文中介绍该项目所取得的代表性成果,对台风登陆前后异常变化的科学问题及研究进展进行综述。  相似文献   

登陆中国热带气旋入海强度变化的统计特征   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

郭丽霞  陈联寿  李英  郑艳萍  张婉莹 《热带气象学报》2010,26(1):65-70

利用1949—2006年热带气旋资料分析登陆中国又入海的热带气旋(LSTC)的强度变化,重点给出明显加强的LSTC(RLSTC)发生频率、时空分布、路径及强度演变特征。主要结论:(1)LSTC入海有24%加强,主要在我国海域,也有少部分进入朝鲜海峡、日本海和鄂霍次克海加强;登陆大陆入海加强的比率明显高于登陆台湾或登陆海南的比率。(2)RLSTC年平均有0.7个,逐年代减少,8月最多。(3)中心最低气压和最大风速加强最强的月份分别在8月和10月、加强最强的海域分别在南海和东黄海。(4)登陆时强度为强热带风暴的最多;其路径除了移向稳定者外,在南海和北部湾还有迂回盘转式。(5)明显加强主要发生在入海时刻,很少持续明显加强。进入东黄海的RLSTC以最大风速先于中心气压变化或仅有风速加强的情况居多,进入南海、北部湾入海后的风速、气压基本同步加强,迂回路径可在入海后72～132小时还会加强。  相似文献   

Sepat台风（0709）登陆过程中眼放大现象研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李英  钱传海  陈联寿 《气象学报》2009,67(5):799-810

台风登陆过程中常发生结构变化,从而引起其强度、路径以及风雨分布等一系列变化,导致登陆台风灾害十分复杂.0709号台风Sepat在穿过台湾岛时结构变化明显,出现了台风眼放大现象.基于上海台风研究所台风资料、FY-Ⅱ卫星半小时一次的遥感资料、台湾雷达逐时合成回波图像以及NCEP每日4次1°×1°格距的再分析资料,研究了Sepat登陆过程中的眼放大现象.结果表明:(1)Sepat登陆台湾后眼墙塌陷、眼消失,但随后在从台湾海峡移向大陆过程中重新出现了台风眼并伴有眼放大现象,眼直径扩展至约600 km;(2)这种眼放大现象,实际上是台风内核区对流云团分裂扩散过程中与外围螺旋云带一起重新发展出的环状结构.台风眼的扩大与眼区下垫面温度降低、低层大气不稳定度减弱、径向外流加强、下沉运动区范围扩大等因素有关;(3)在台风外围,环境干空气侵入台风环流并在其西部形成了弧状湿度锋.锋区既促进对流运动发展,也阻碍了台风眼区云团进一步向外扩散,使对流云团在锋区附近排列成半圆弧状云带,并在台风气旋性环流组织下与台风东部的螺旋云带一起形成了环状眼墙;(4)台风的减弱消亡与其眼区放大现象密切相关.台风眼放大过程中,由于眼内干空气下沉范围加大、对流凝结潜热加热减弱,不利于暖心结构维持,台风强度亦随之衰减.同时,其增强的径向外流在一定程度上阻止水汽能量向台风内核区输入,促使台风内核对流运动的减弱和消亡.  相似文献   

西北太平洋风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋活动年际变化的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

白莉娜  何敏  王元  任福民  陈联寿 《气象学报》2010,68(6):877-884

应用中国《台风年鉴》资料、欧洲中心40年月平均再分析资料和NOAA的逐月海温资料,研究了西北太平洋(5°—30°N,110°E—180°)风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋(TC)活动年际变化的影响。研究发现,西北太平洋所有TC、风暴以上级别的TC(TSTY,即达到热带风暴级别及以上的所有TC)和所有台风(WTY,包括台风、强台风和超强台风)年频数与西北太平洋风速垂直切变都显著负相关。西北太平洋风速垂直切变大小对生成源地在南海(5°—30°N,110°—120°E)TC和西北太平洋西部海域(5°—30°N,120°—150°E)TC的影响较小,而对西北太平洋东部海域(5°—30°N,150°E—180°)生成的TC影响最大:即西北太平洋风速垂直切变负异常年,有利于西北太平洋东部海域TC生成发展,使得负异常年较正异常年TC频数偏多和源地平均位置偏东;并且风速垂直切变的变化对TC频数和生成源地影响的显著性,随着TC强度的增加而增加。对TSTY生成环境场的进一步分析表明,西北太平洋风速垂直切变偏小年,季风槽偏强位置偏东,它的东端位于宽阔的太平洋洋面,与弱风速垂直切变区相配合,暖的海温加上低层强烈的正涡度和强烈辐合,且相应的高层有强的气流辐散区,这些环境场都有利于TSTY在主要源地尤其是西北太平洋东部海域生成,这是风速垂直切变偏小年TSTY偏多和生成源地偏东的重要原因。  相似文献   

登陆热带气旋入黄渤海强度变化的环境场特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

郭丽霞  陈联寿  李英 《应用气象学报》2010,21(5):570-579

为了研究登陆热带气旋进入黄渤海域(YBTC)强度变化的规律和环境场特征,利用1949-2007年台风资料和NCEP/NCAR逐6h的客观再分析资料,首先对YBTC强度变化进行统计分析,发现其入海加强比率达49%,9月加强的频数最多、加强幅度最大,登陆福建的YBTC加强比率高,中心最低气压P_(min)和中心最大平均风速V_(max)变化不完全同步,V_(max)加强幅度比减弱幅度大,P_(min)加强幅度与减弱幅度相当。选择入海加强和入海减弱的YBTC各5例,合成诊断、对比分析两类YBTC的大尺度环境条件表明:前者YBTC西北部有深槽移近、YBTC与其锋区入海时逐渐耦合,后者在YBTC西部有浅槽、北部为弱脊。前者副热带高压经向度大利于YBTC与中纬槽系统相互作用加强。前者有强的高空急流快速靠近、YBTC行进到高空急流入口区右侧,而后者位于较弱的高空急流入口区外、没有快速靠近过程。两者都有低空偏南风急流输送水汽,但前者西侧有较强北风带来的干冷空气。前者具有较强的湿斜压性和θ_(se)陡立区适宜倾斜涡度发展。  相似文献   

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

马丽萍  陈联寿 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(1):38-44

The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949 to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10°N – 20°N, 100°E – 140°E) increases by 0.6°C against the background of global warming, while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases significantly. Generally, the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones, but it is now shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a weakening trend in strength, and it has moved much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our study also found that the ridge of the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward, which is another adverse mechanism for the formation of tropical cyclones.  相似文献   

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF POYANG LAKE'S INFLUENCE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张胜军  陈联寿  李英 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(2):249-262

Based on the Tropical Cyclone(TC briefly thereafter)Yearbook 1980-2009,this paper first analyzes the number and intensity change of the TCs which passed directly over or by the side of Poyang Lake(the distance of TC center is less than 1°longitude or 1°latitude from the Lake)among all the landfalling TCs in China during the past 30 years.Two cases are examined in detail in this paper.One is severe typhoon Rananim with a speed of 3.26 m/s and a change of 1 hPa in intensity when it was passing the Lake.The other is super typhoon Saomai with a faster moving speed of 6.50 m/s and a larger change in intensity of 6 hPa.Through numerical simulation experiments,this paper analyzes how the change of underlying surface from water to land contributes to the differences in intensity,speed and mesoscale convection of the two TCs when they passed the Lake.Results show that the moisture and dynamic condition above the Lake were favorable for the maintenance of the intensity when Rananim was passing through Poyang Lake,despite the moisture supply from the ocean was cut off.As a result,there was strong convection around the lake which led to a rainfall spinning counter-clockwise as it was affected by the TC movement.However,little impact was seen in the Saomai case.These results indicate that for the TCs coming ashore on Poyang Lake with a slow speed,the large water body is conducive to the sustaining of the intensity and strengthening of the convection around the TC center and the subsequent heavy rainfall.On the contrary,a fast-moving TC is less likely to be influenced by the underlying surface in terms of intensity and speed.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL REMNANT RE-ENTERING THE SEA: A CASE STUDY     

曾智华  陈联寿 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(2):146-161

When Typhoon Toraji(2001)reached the Bohai Gulf during 1-2 August 2001,a heavy rainfall event occurred over Shandong province in China along the gulf.The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF-ARW)model was used to explore possible effects of environmental factors,including effects of moisture transportation,upper-level trough interaction with potential vorticity anomalies,tropical cyclone(TC)remnant circulation,and TC boundary-layer process on the re-intensification of Typhoon Toraji,which re-entered the Bohai Gulf after having made a landfall.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)global final(FNL)analysis provided both the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the WRF-ARW model.The model was initialized at 1200 UTC on 31 July and integrated until 1200 UTC on 3 August 2001,during which Toraji remnant experienced the extratropical transition and re-intensification.Five numerical experiments were performed in this study,including one control and four sensitivity experiments.In the control experiment,the simulated typhoon had a track and intensity change similar to those observed.The results from three sensitivity experiments showed that the moisture transfer by a southwesterly lower-level jet,a low vortex to the northeast of China,and the presence of Typhoon Toraji all played important roles in simulated heavy rainfall over Shandong and remnant re-intensification over the sea,which are consistent with the observation.One of the tests illustrated that the local boundary layer forcing played a secondary role in the TC intensity change over the sea.  相似文献   

超强台风“桑美”（2006）近海急剧增强特征及机理分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

于玉斌  陈联寿  杨昌贤 《大气科学》2008,32(2):405-416

应用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对超强台风“桑美”（2006）在中国近海急剧增强的特征及机理进行分析。结果表明, “桑美”台风强度变化与南亚高压、副热带高压的强度变化呈反相变化关系;介于-4～4 m/s弱的200 hPa和850 hPa高低层环境风垂直切变是“桑美”台风急剧增强的必要条件;台风中心附近对流层高层辐散的增强、中心附近正涡度的增大和正涡度柱向对流层中上层伸展导致“桑美”台风急剧增强,对流层中层辐散和涡度的增大与台风的减弱密切相关;“桑美”台风急剧增强过程中,对流层高层动能的下传是对流层低层动能补充的重要途径之一;“桑美”台风近海急剧增强具有前兆性,急剧增强对风垂直切变、850 hPa角动量和动能区域平均值变化的响应时间大约为18 h,这些可为提前预测我国近海台风的强度急剧变化提供参考。  相似文献   

我国台风预报和研究的进展     

陈联寿 《气象》1979,5(12):1-4

前言 全球热带风暴总数的36％出现在西北太平洋,而我国又是世界上受台风影响次数最多的国家,西北太平洋登陆台风的35％在我国登陆,在西太平洋诸国家中居于首位。 新中国成立以后,大规模的经济建设,如农业、海洋开发事业、水利、交通等,都要求有准确的台风预报和较好的服务效果。在过去三十年中,我国的台风研究和预报服务有了很大进展,这些进展和计算能力的提高、探测技术有了相应的发展、加强了科研协作规划以及组织了全国台风联防(包括警戒手段、情报传递、加密测网、警报发布等)有关。 五十年代,我国台风研究除极为少数的理论和物理图象探讨外,大量是以形态学为基础的经验总结,预报根据主要是气候平均和持续性因子以及形态特征和要素指标。六十年代以后,随着电子计算机的使用,使多因子逐步筛选和多层动力模式等计算方案得以在业务中实现,台风数值模拟的试验研究得到开展,台  相似文献