SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1     

M Grande  R BrowningN Waltham  D ParkerS.K Dunkin  B KentB Kellett  C.H PerryB Swinyard  A PerryJ Feraday  C HoweG McBride  K PhillipsJ Huovelin  P MuhliP.J Hakala  O VilhuJ Laukkanen  N ThomasD Hughes  H AlleyneM Grady  R LundinS Barabash  D BakerP.E Clark  C.D MurrayJ Guest  I CasanovaL.C d'Uston  S MauriceB Foing  D.J Heather  V FernandesK Muinonen  S.S RussellA Christou  C OwenP Charles  H KoskinenM Kato  K SipilaS Nenonen  M HolmstromN Bhandari  R ElphicD Lawrence 《Planetary and Space Science》2003,51(6):427-433

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.  相似文献   

Meteor stream identification: a new approach – III. The limitations of statistics     

T. J. Jopek  G. B. Valsecchi  Cl. Froeschlé 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(2):665-672

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An empirical model of the daily evolution of the coronal index     

Mavromichalaki  H.  Plainaki  C.  Zouganelis  I.  Petropoulos  B. 《Solar physics》2003,218(1-2):63-78

Global changes of the solar activity can be expressed by the coronal index that is based upon the total irradiance of the coronal 530.3 nm green line from observations at five stations. Daily mean values of the coronal index of solar activity and other well-correlated solar indices are analyzed for the period 1966–1998 covering over three solar cycles. The significant correlation of this index with the sunspot number and the solar flare index have led to an analytical expression which can reproduce the coronal index of solar activity as a function of these parameters. This expression explains well the existence of the two maxima during the solar cycles taking into account the evolution of the magnetic field that can be expressed by some sinusoidal terms during solar maxima and minima. The accuracy between observed and calculated values of the coronal index on a daily basis reaches the value of 71%. It is concluded that the representative character of the coronal index is preserved even when using daily data and can therefore allow us to study long-term, intermediate and short-term variations for the Sun as a star, in association with different periodical solar–terrestrial phenomena useful for space weather studies.  相似文献   

A model of polarized OH maser emission in W75N     

M. D. Gray  B. Hutawarakorn  R. J. Cohen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(4):1067-1080

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The 2dF QSO Redshift Survey – X. Lensing of background QSOs by galaxy groups     

A. D. Myers  P. J. Outram  T. Shanks  B. J. Boyle  S. M. Croom  N. S. Loaring  L. Miller  R. J. Smith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(2):467-482

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Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn     

纪雷  崔鹤  辛淑平  王军  张龙军  陆贤昆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(2):180-186

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

JIANGDong WANGNai-bin YANGXIao-huan WANGJi-hua 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(1):62-65

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.  相似文献   

Photometry of pluto in the last decade and before: evidence for volatile transport?     

B.J. Buratti  J.K. Hillier  A. Heinze  K.A. Tryka  J. Ward  J. Young 《Icarus》2003,162(1):171-182

Photometric observations of Pluto in the BVR filter system were obtained in 1999 and in 1990-1993, and observations in the 0.89-μm methane absorption band were obtained in 2000. Our 1999 observations yield lightcurve amplitudes of 0.30 ± 0.01, 0.26 ± 0.01, and 0.21 ± 0.02 and geometric albedos of 0.44 ± 0.04, 0.52 ± 0.03, and 0.58 ± 0.02 in the B, V, and R filters, respectively. The low-albedo hemisphere of Pluto is slightly redder than the higher albedo hemisphere. A comparison of our results and those from previous epochs shows that the lightcurve of Pluto changes substantially through time. We developed a model that fully accounts for changes in the lightcurve caused by changes in the viewing geometry between the Earth, Pluto, and the Sun. We find that the observed changes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve can be explained by viewing geometry rather than by volatile transport. We also discovered a measurable decrease since 1992 of ∼0.03 magnitudes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve, as the model predicts. Pluto’s geometric albedo does not appear to be currently increasing, as our model predicts, although given the uncertainties in both the model and the measurements of geometric albedo, this result is not firm evidence for volatile transport. The maximum of methane-absorption lightcurve occurs near the minimum of the BVR lightcurves. This result suggests that methane is more abundant in the brightest regions of Pluto. Pluto’s phase coefficient exhibits a color dependence, ranging from 0.037 ± 0.01 in the B filter to 0.032 ± 0.01 in the R filter. Pluto’s phase curve is most like those of the bright, recently resurfaced satellites Triton and Europa. Although Pluto shows no strong evidence for volatile transport now (unlike Triton), it is important to continue to observe Pluto as it moves away from perihelion.  相似文献   

Mesoscale linear streaks on Mars: environments of dust entrainment     

P.C Thomas  P Gierasch  D.S Miller  B Cantor 《Icarus》2003,162(2):242-258

Variable surface albedo features on Mars are likely caused by the entrainment and deposition of dust by the wind. Most discrete markings are associated with topographic forms or with regional slopes that serve to alter the effective wind shear stress on the surface. Some of the largest variable features, here termed mesoscale linear streaks, are up to 400 km in length and repeatedly occur in one of the smoothest regions of Mars: Amazonis Planitia. Their orientations and apparent season of variability as observed by Viking and Mars Orbiter cameras indicate linear streak formation by enhanced surface wind stresses during regional or local dust storms and during the initial stages of global dust storms. They provide an example of the ability of large-scale winds, without significant local enhancement, to initiate dust motion on Mars. The sizes and spacing of the linear streaks may be controlled by boundary layer rolls. The repetitive formation of these streaks, over a span of more than 11 Mars years, gives one measure of the stability of Mars’ eolian processes.  相似文献