On ‘bimodality of the solar cycle’ and the duration of cycle 21     

Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》1987,108(1):195-200

The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r ² 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.  相似文献   

On the proposed associations of solar neutrino flux with solar particles,cosmic rays,and the solar activity cycle     

Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》1987,112(1):1-15

It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r ², where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r ² 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.  相似文献   

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Xiao-Gu Zheng  David Vere-Jones 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,135(4):559-576

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.  相似文献   

Accuracy of close binary mass determinations from parallaxes     

W. Van Hamme  R. E. Wilson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1985,110(1):169-175

Absolute masses for W Ursae Majoris and Algol-type close binaries can be determined from their parallax, if observed, and the relative sizes of the stars and their mass ratio, obtained from a light curve solution. An error propagation study compares the typical order of magnitude of the various terms involved, and shows how accurate parallaxes have to be in order to make the procedure work, i.e., making the parallax term not larger than the combined non-parallax terms, and producing reasonably low mass errors. Some comments are made on the possibilities with respect to the HIPPARCOS program.Communication presented at the International Conference on Astrometric Binaries, held on 13–15 June, 1984, at the Remeis-Sternwarte Bamberg, Germany, to commemorate the 200th anniversary of the birth of Friedrich Wilhelm Bessel (1784–1846).  相似文献   

Candidates for astrometric or direct-imaging detection of extra-solar planets,and comments on the photometric method     

David R. Soderblom 《Icarus》1985,61(2):343-345

Knowledge of a star's rotation period and ν sin i can be used to select stars that are seen pole-on, and thus are well suited to planetary searches by astrometric or direct-imaging means. A table of such stars is presented. This method is not suitable for discriminating equator-on systems and so cannot be used to select candidates for the photometric method of W. J. Borucki and A. L. Summers (1984, Icarus58, 121–134).  相似文献   

U–Pb SHRIMP zircon geochronology and T–t–d history of the Kampa Dome, southern Tibet     

M.C. Quigley  Y. Liangjun  C. Gregory  A. Corvino  M. Sandiford  C.J.L. Wilson  L. Xiaohan 《Tectonophysics》2008,446(1-4):97-113

Structural, petrographic and geochronologic studies of the Kampa Dome provide insights into the tectonothermal evolution of orogenic crust exposed in the North Himalayan gneiss domes of southern Tibet. U–Pb ion microprobe dating of zircons from granite gneiss exposed at the deepest levels within the dome yields concordia ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age populations of 506 ± 3 Ma and 527 ± 6 Ma, with no evidence of new zircon growth during Himalayan orogenesis. However, the granite contains penetrative deformation fabrics that are also preserved in the overlying Paleozoic strata, implying that the Kampa granite is a Cambrian pluton that was strongly deformed and metamorphosed during Himalayan orogenesis. Zircons from deformed leucogranite sills that cross-cut Paleozoic metasedimentary rocks yield concordant Cambrian ages from oscillatory zoned cores and discordant ages ranging from ca. 491–32 Ma in metamict grains. Since these leucogranites clearly post-date the metasedimentary rocks they intrude, the zircons are interpreted as xenocrysts that are probably derived from the Kampa granite. The Kampa Dome formed via a series of progressive orogenic events including regional ~ N–S contraction and related crustal thickening (D₁), predominately top-to-N ductile shearing and crustal extension (D₂), top-to-N brittle–ductile faulting and related folding on the north limb of the dome, localized top-to-S faulting on the southern limb of the dome, and crustal doming (D₃), and continued N–S contraction, E–W extension and doming (D₄). Structural and geochronologic variability amongst adjacent North Himalayan gneiss domes may reflect changes in the magnitude of crustal exhumation along the North Himalayan antiform, possibly relating to differences in the mid-crustal geometry of the exhuming fault systems.  相似文献   

Mechanical models of fracture reactivation and slip on bedding surfaces during folding of the asymmetric anticline at Sheep Mountain, Wyoming     

Pablo F. Sanz  David D. Pollard  Patricia F. Allwardt  Ronaldo I. Borja 《Journal of Structural Geology》2008,30(9):1177-1191

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The palaeoenvironment associated with a partial Iguanodon skeleton from the Upper Weald Clay (Barremian, Early Cretaceous) at Smokejacks Brickworks (Ockley, Surrey, UK), based on palynomorphs and ostracods     

Eleanor Nye  Susanne Feist-Burkhardt  David J. Horne  Andrew J. Ross  John E. Whittaker 《Cretaceous Research》2008,29(3):417-444

In 2001 a partial skeleton of an Iguanodon was discovered in the Upper Weald Clay (Barremian, Early Cretaceous) at Smokejacks Brickworks near Ockley, Surrey, UK. When the dinosaur was excavated, a detailed stratigraphic section was logged and 25 samples taken for palynological and micropalaeontological (ostracod and megaspore) analysis, including a detailed sample set of the dinosaur bed itself. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the palynoflora revealed rich and well-preserved non-marine assemblages of pollen and spores, including early angiosperms, and freshwater green algae. Four types of angiosperm pollen are described and assigned to the genus Retimonocolpites Pierce, 1961, but left in open nomenclature. Some marine elements such as dinoflagellate cysts are identified as the result of reworking of Middle and Upper Jurassic sediments. The pollen/spore assemblages depict a vegetational change from principally gymnosperm-dominated assemblages at the base to principally pteridophyte-dominated assemblages at the top of the section. The dinosaur bed shows a pteridophyte-dominated assemblage, with a significantly high amount of the freshwater green alga Scenedesmus novilunaris He Cheng-quan et al., 1992. Samples close to the dinosaur bed yielded the first useful ostracod finds from Smokejacks Brickworks: well-preserved assemblages containing Cypridea clavata (Anderson, 1939), Damonella cf. pygmaea (Anderson, 1941), Stenestroemia cf. cressida Anderson, 1971 and Stenestroemia sp. A, and fragments and damaged valves of a thin-shelled ostracod, possibly belonging to Mantelliana Anderson, 1966. Those identified as Cypridea clavata show a wide range of morphological variety and in opposition to Anderson's (1967, 1985) taxonomic scheme, which would assign them to up to five different taxa, they are considered to be intraspecific variants of a single species. The possibilities and limitations of age determination of the Wealden sediments using palynomorphs and ostracods are discussed; distinct forms of early angiosperm pollen, together with the ostracod fauna, are consistent with an early Barremian age. Pollen and spores are discussed in terms of their parent plants and the reconstruction of vegetation and palaeoclimate. Palynology and ostracods give evidence for temporary freshwater conditions at the time when the Iguanodon died and the carcase was buried.  相似文献   

Organic carbon deposition and phosphorus accumulation during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 in Tarfaya, Morocco     

Haydon P. Mort  Thierry Adatte  Gerta Keller  David Bartels  Karl B. Fllmi  Philipp Steinmann  Zsolt Berner  E.H. Chellai 《Cretaceous Research》2008,29(5-6):1008

With a multi-proxy approach, an attempt was made to constrain productivity and bottom-water redox conditions and their effects on the phosphorus accumulation rate at the Mohammed Plage section on the Tarfaya coast, Morocco, during the Cenomanian-Turonian Anoxic Event (OAE 2). A distinct δ¹³C_org isotope excursion of +2.5‰ occurs close to the top of the section. The unusually abrupt shift of the isotope excursion and disappearance of several planktonic foraminiferal species (e.g. Rotalipora cushmani and Rotalipora greenhornensis) in this level suggests a hiatus of between 40–60 kyrs at the excursion onset. Nevertheless, it was possible to determine both the long-term environmental history as well as the processes that took place immediately prior to and during OAE 2. TOC% values increase gradually from the base of the section to the top (from 2.5% to 10%). This is interpreted as the consequence of a long-term eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence causing the encroachment of less oxic waters into the Tarfaya Basin. Similarly a reduction in the mineralogically constructed ‘detrital index’ can be explained by the decrease in the continental flux of terrigenous material due to a relative sea-level rise. A speciation of phosphorus in the upper part of the section, which spans the start and mid-stages of OAE 2, shows overall higher abundances of P_reactive mass accumulation rates before the isotope excursion onset and lower values during the plateau. Due to the probable short hiatus, the onset of the decrease in phosphorus content relative to the isotope excursion is uncertain, although the excursion plateau already contains lower concentrations. The C_org/P_total and V/Al ratios suggest that this reduction was mostly likely caused by a decrease in the available bottom oxygen content (probably as a result of higher productivity) and a corresponding fall in the phosphorus retention ability of the sediment. Productivity appears to have remained high during the isotope plateau possibly due to a combination of ocean-surface fertilisation via increased aridity (increased K/Al and Ti/Al ratios) and/or higher dissolved inorganic phosphorus content in the water column as a result of the decrease in sediment P retention. The evidence for decreased P-burial has been observed in many other palaeoenvironments during OAE 2. Tarfaya's unique upwelling paleosituation provides strong evidence that the nutrient recycling was a global phenomenon and therefore a critical factor in starting and sustaining OAE 2.  相似文献   

Oxidation of pyrite during extraction of carbonate associated sulfate     

Pedro J. Marenco  Frank A. Corsetti  Douglas E. Hammond  Alan J. Kaufman  David J. Bottjer 《Chemical Geology》2008,247(1-2):124-132

The sulfur isotopic composition of carbonate associated sulfate (CAS) has been used to investigate the geochemistry of ancient seawater sulfate. However, few studies have quantified the reliability of δ³⁴S of CAS as a seawater sulfate proxy, especially with respect to later diagenetic overprinting. Pyrite, which typically has depleted δ³⁴S values due to authigenic fractionation associated with bacterial sulfate reduction, is a common constituent of marine sedimentary rocks. The oxidation of pyrite, whether during diagenesis or sample preparation, could thus adversely influence the sulfur isotopic composition of CAS. Here, we report the results of CAS extractions using HCl and acetic acid with samples spiked with varying amounts of pyrite. The results show a very strong linear relationship between the abundance of fine-grained pyrite added to the sample and the resultant abundance and δ³⁴S value of CAS. This data represents the first unequivocal evidence that pyrite is oxidized during the CAS extraction process. Our mixing models indicate that in samples with much less than 1 wt.% pyrite and relatively high δ³⁴S_pyrite values, the isotopic offset imparted by oxidation of pyrite should be much less than ? 4‰. A wealth of literature exists on the oxidation of pyrite by Fe³⁺ and we believe this mechanism drives the oxidation of pyrite during CAS extraction, during which the oxygen used to form sulfate is taken from H₂O, not O₂. Consequently, extracting CAS under anaerobic conditions would only slow, but not halt, the oxidation of pyrite. Future studies of CAS should attempt to quantify pyrite abundance and isotopic composition.  相似文献