A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Rosie Eade  Holger Pohlmann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3325-3338

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.  相似文献   

The Allen Telescope Array     

David Deboer  Rob Ackermann  Leo Blitz  Douglas Bock  Geoffrey Bower  Michael Davis  John Dreher  Greg Engargiola  Matt Fleming  Girmay Keleta  Gerry Harp  John Lugten  Jill Tarter  Doug Thornton  Niklas Wadefalk  Sander Weinreb  William J. Welch 《Experimental Astronomy》2004,17(1-3):19-34

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ATLAS KEBANGSAAN MALAYSIA     

Doug Johnston 《New Zealand geographer》1981,37(1):ii-ii

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Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles     

Jan?M.?LindsayEmail author  John?B.?Shepherd  Doug?Wilson 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(1):1-24

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.  相似文献   

Preparing Geographers for Interdisciplinary Research: Graduate Training at the Interface of the Natural and Social Sciences     

Russell C. Hedberg II  Arielle Hesse  Doug Baldwin  Jase Bernhardt  David Pahl Retchless  Jamie E. Shinn 《The Professional geographer》2017,69(1):107-116

Recent debates about the state of geography raise valuable questions about how the discipline can and should change in response to shifting institutional realities. Focusing on the breadth and interdisciplinarity of geography, these discussions often overlook the role of pedagogy—particularly graduate training—in adapting the discipline to new institutional landscapes. Drawing on experiences as current and recent geography doctoral students, we identify institutional seedlings of opportunity that can be cultivated toward a spectrum of alternative doctoral training models. These alternatives offer significant opportunities to better prepare early-career geographers for success and to solidify geography's position as a leader in interdisciplinary research.  相似文献   

Analysis of fracture induced scattering of microseismic shear-waves     

Baban M. Yousef  Doug A. Angus 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2017,61(4):728-753

Fractures are pervasive features within the Earth’s crust and have a significant influence on the multi-physical response of the subsurface. The presence of coherent fracture sets often leads to observable seismic scattering enabling seismic techniques to remotely locate and characterise fracture systems. In this study, we confirm the general scale-dependence of seismic scattering and provide new results specific to shear-wave propagation. We do this by generating full waveform synthetics using finite-difference wave simulation within an isotropic background model containing explicit fractures. By considering a suite of fracture models having variable fracture density and fracture size, we examine the widening effect of wavelets due to scattering within a fractured medium by using several different approaches, such as root-mean-square envelope analysis, shear-wave polarisation distortion, differential attenuation analysis and peak frequency shifting. The analysis allows us to assess the scattering behavior of parametrised models in which the propagation direction is either normal or parallel to the fracture surfaces. The quantitative measures show strong observable deviations for fractures size on the order of or greater than the dominant seismic wavelength within the Mie and geometric scattering regime for both propagation normal and parallel to fracture strike. The results suggest that strong scattering is symptomatic of fractures having size on the same order of the probing seismic wave.  相似文献   

Modelling converted seismic waveforms in isotropic and anisotropic 1-D gradients: discontinuous versus continuous gradient representations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Doug A. Angus  Colin J. Thomson 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2012,56(2):383-409

Over the past decade, there have been numerous receiver function studies directed at imaging the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB). Although it is generally accepted that receiver function phases observed in these studies are derived from physical mode conversions at depth within the lithosphere-asthenosphere transition, it is still debatable as to whether these phases are directly indicative of the LAB. This is because interpretation of receiver function LAB signals relies on understanding the elastic characteristics of the Earth??s outer thermal boundary layer. The main issues for receiver function imaging are the sharpness of the elastic material property transition and, more importantly, what specifically are the material gradients. To test the various transition models, a forward modelling approach is required that allows accurate waveform synthetics for a range of discontinuous and continuous gradients in anisotropic, elastic media. We present a derivation of the reflection and transmission response for continuous one-dimensional (1-D) gradients in generally anisotropic elastic media. We evaluate the influence of 1-D isotropic and anisotropic elastic gradients on the seismic waveform by comparing numerical results of models for discontinuous and continuous transitions. The results indicate that discontinuous representations using layers each with uniform parameters and with thicknesses on the order of approximately 1/3 to 1/8 of the dominant seismic wavelength can be used to accurately model P-to-S and S-to-P mode conversions due to continuous transitions of both isotropic and anisotropic elastic properties. From a practical point of view, when comparing synthetic modelling with observation, this constraint can be relaxed further. The presence of signal noise and/or the result of receiver function stacking techniques will likely obscure these subtle waveform e ff ects. Hence this study suggests that accurate synthetic waveforms for LAB transitions can be modelled with discontinuous gradient representations using a reasonable number of discrete transition layers with layer thicknesses no greater than 1/2 to 1/3 the dominant seismic wavelength.  相似文献   

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LiDAR data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Marc-André Brideau  Matthieu Sturzenegger  Doug Stead  Michel Jaboyedoff  Martin Lawrence  Nicholas J. Roberts  Brent C. Ward  Thomas H. Millard  John J. Clague 《Landslides》2012,9(1):75-91

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm³ landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.  相似文献   

The GPS Toolbox     

Doug Hunt 《GPS Solutions》2000,4(1):74-76

The GPS Toolbox is dedicated to highlighting algorithms utilized by GPS engineers and scientists. If you have an interesting algorithm you would like to share with our readers or if you have a topic you would like to see covered in a future column, contact us at gps-toolbox@ngs.noaa.gov. To comment on the algorithms presented here, or to leave a request for an algorithm you may be looking for, visit our Web site (http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/gps-toolbox). ? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences     

Eric Knackmuhs  James Farmer  Doug Knapp 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(3):303-321

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.  相似文献