气候变化对中国农业生产的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐国平  李秀彬  Sylvia Prieler 《地理学报》2000,55(5)

根据1958～1997年中国310个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温,月平均降水量,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征.用3个大气环流模型,即HadCM2、CGCM1、ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景.同时,建立未来气候变化的6种方案.最后,根据3个GCMs模拟的结果,利用国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)发展并改进的农业生态地带模型(AEZ)评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响.评估主要集中于气候变化对不同区域复种指数、可耕种土地面积、潜在粮食产量及其土地生产潜力的影响.  相似文献   

Contributing sources to baseflow in pre‐alpine headwaters using spatial snapshot sampling          下载免费PDF全文

Benjamin M. C. Fischer  Michael Rinderer  Philipp Schneider  Tracy Ewen  Jan Seibert 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5321-5336

Mountainous headwaters consist of different landscape units including forests, meadows and wetlands. In these headwaters it is unclear which landscape units contribute what percentage to baseflow. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal differences in baseflow isotope and hydrochemistry to identify catchment‐scale runoff contribution. Three baseflow snapshot sampling campaigns were performed in the Swiss pre‐alpine headwater catchment of the Zwäckentobel (4.25 km²) and six of its adjacent subcatchments. The spatial and temporal variability of δ²H, Ca, DOC, AT, pH, SO₄, Mg and H₄SiO₄ of streamflow, groundwater and spring water samples was analysed and related to catchment area and wetland percentage using bivariate and multivariate methods. Our study found that in the six subcatchments, with variable arrangements of landscape units, the inter‐ and intra catchment variability of isotopic and hydrochemical compositions was small and generally not significant. Stream samples were distinctly different from shallow groundwater. An upper spring zone located near the water divide above 1,400 m and a larger wetland were identified by their distinct spatial isotopic and hydrochemical composition. The upstream wetland percentage was not correlated to the hydrochemical streamflow composition, suggesting that wetlands were less connected and act as passive features with a negligible contribution to baseflow runoff. The isotopic and hydrochemical composition of baseflow changed slightly from the upper spring zone towards the subcatchment outlets and corresponded to the signature of deep groundwater. Our results confirm the need and benefits of spatially distributed snapshot sampling to derive process understanding of heterogeneous headwaters during baseflow. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating diverse geologic and geodetic observations to determine failure mechanisms and deformation rates across a large bedrock landslide complex: the Osmundneset landslide,Sogn og Fjordane,Norway     

Adam M. Booth  John Dehls  Trond Eiken  Luzia Fischer  Reginald L. Hermanns  Thierry Oppikofer 《Landslides》2015,12(4):745-756

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Water vapour in BALTIMOS: a comparison with MODIS measurements     

Ronny Leinweber  Jürgen Fischer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(4):611-616

In this paper, we compare integrated water vapour (IWV) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board the polar-orbiting Terra platform with those from the coupled regional climate model system BALTIMOS for a period of 2 years (October 2001 to October 2003). The comparison was made for the whole drainage basin of the Baltic Sea as well as major parts of Central Europe. The qualitative comparison between the two data sets of the integrated water vapour shows a good agreement. The patterns in the spatial distribution of the averaged integrated water vapour in both data sets are quite similar. However, significant differences occur in the Hungarian Lowlands, along the Po River and the Wallachia (Romania) in the order of 2.5 to 7.0 kg/m². For these areas, the BALTIMOS model is dryer than the MODIS observations. This could be an indication for the known summer drying effect of BALTIMOS but needs further investigations. The annual cycle as well as a diurnal developing of integrated water vapour from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC is well pronounced in both data sets. For both data sets, the overall annual variations are 17.5 kg/m². The observed overall diurnal variability are 1.4 kg/m² for MODIS and 1.04 kg/m² for BALTIMOS, respectively.  相似文献   

Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales     

Matt J. Fischer  Adrian W. Paterson 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):361-374

Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.  相似文献   

Does the Social Capital in Networks of “Fish and Fire” Scientists and Managers Suggest Learning?     

A. Paige Fischer  Ken Vance-Borland  Kelly M. Burnett  S. Hummel  Janean H. Creighton  Sherri L. Johnson 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(7):671-688

Patterns of social interaction influence how knowledge is generated, communicated, and applied. Theories of social capital and organizational learning suggest that interactions within disciplinary or functional groups foster communication of knowledge, whereas interactions across groups foster generation of new knowledge. We used social network analysis to examine patterns of social interaction reported in survey data from scientists and managers who work on fish and fire issues. We found that few fish and fire scientists and managers interact with one another, suggesting low bridging social capital and thus, limited opportunity for generation of new knowledge. We also found that although interaction occurs among scientists—suggesting modest bonding social capital—few managers interact with other managers, indicating limited opportunity for communication of scientific knowledge for the purposes of application. We discuss constraints and opportunities for organizational learning evident in these patterns of social interaction among fish and fire scientists and managers.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of volcanic fluids     

Salvatore Inguaggiato  Hiroshi Shinohara  Tobias Fischer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2011,73(4):369-371

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A case study on the correlation of micro-contaminants and potassium in the Leine River (Germany)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Karsten Nödler  Tobias Licha  Steffi Fischer  Bianca Wagner  Martin Sauter 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(12):2172-2180

River monitoring with focus on the correlation of 41 micro-contaminants with K⁺ and its temporal and spatial variation was carried out in the Leine River (Germany). A positive correlation of concentrations of wastewater-related micro-contaminants and K⁺ is to be expected in receiving waters of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent since urine is a significant source of K⁺ in WWTP effluent. This correlation was found for compounds, which meet the following criteria: (1) WWTP effluent is the dominating source of the compound, (2) variability of its mass flux in the WWTP is negligible, and (3) the compound is persistent in WWTPs and in the environment. The excellent positive correlation of carbamazepine with K⁺ resulted in the fitting of a universal linear equation to the summer and winter data. For almost all other correlating compounds (1H-benzotriazole, citalopram, diclofenac, metoprolol, sotalol, sulfamethoxazole and tolyltriazole), slopes of the line fittings were steeper in winter (x-axis: K⁺, y-axis: respective micro-contaminant). This has been attributed to a presumed lower degree of degradation and attenuation within WWTPs and in the environment due to low temperatures as well as an increase in consumption of these compounds in the winter months. As part of this research, a sampling event along the entire flow path of the Leine River (∼280 km) was conducted to identify compounds demonstrating stable ratios of various respective micro-contaminants with K⁺. Among other compounds, carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, and tolyltriazole demonstrated the best correlations with R² > 0.89. Potassium-equivalents of the individual micro-contaminants depended on land use and population structure of the investigated river section.  相似文献   

A measurement of the flux of cosmic ray iron at 5×10 eV     

J. Clem  W. Droege  P. A. Evenson  H. Fischer  G. Green  D. Huber  H. Kunow  D. Seckel 《Astroparticle Physics》2002,16(4):1145-395

We present results from the initial flight of our Balloon Air CHerenkov (BACH) payload. BACH detects air Cherenkov radiation from cosmic ray nuclei as coincident flashes in two optical modules. The flight (dubbed PDQ–BACH) took place on April 22, 1998 from Ft. Sumner, New Mexico. During an exposure of 2.75 h, with a typical threshold energy for iron nuclei of 2.2×10¹³ eV, we observed several events cleanly identifiable as iron group nuclei. Analysis of the data yields a new flux measurement that is fully consistent with that reported by other investigations.  相似文献   

Roadway design in karst     

Joseph A. Fischer  Joseph J. Fischer  R. W. Greene 《Environmental Geology》1993,22(4):321-325

To minimize costs in conventional roadway design, as much low or valley areas as possible are utilized. In many areas of the eastern United States, these valleys are filled with carbonate rocks. Excavation is used to minimize grades—this removes protective overburden or rock cover over cavities; fill also is used to minimize grades—this can increase loads on marginally stable soil arches or rock cavity roofs. Surface water runoff is directed toward low areas—the low areas are likely zones of weakness or solutioning, thereby increasing the potential for sinkhole development and providing an opportunity for ground—water contamination, and remediation usually consists of blindly filling rock cavities, thus either channeling the still-contaminated surface flows someplace else or perhaps eliminating useful ground water recharge conduits. The authors suggest that the key to proper design, construction, and remediation for roadways planned in karst is to understand the geologic and hydrogeologic setting of the route(s) or locale, perform true geotechnical engineering design, and remediate with an understanding of the overall engineering geologic, hydrogeologic, and environmental picture.  相似文献