Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise     

Rachel Warren  Jeff Price  Andreas Fischlin  Santiago de la Nava Santos  Guy Midgley 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):141-177

In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (ΔT_g). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ΔT_g reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change”. Unless ΔT_g is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.  相似文献   

Nearshore Tsunami Inundation Model Validation: Toward Sediment Transport Applications     

Alex Apotsos  Mark Buckley  Guy Gelfenbaum  Bruce Jaffe  Deepak Vatvani 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):2097-2119

Model predictions from a numerical model, Delft3D, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations are compared with analytical results and laboratory observations from seven tsunami-like benchmark experiments, and with field observations from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The model accurately predicts the magnitude and timing of the measured water levels and flow velocities, as well as the magnitude of the maximum inundation distance and run-up, for both breaking and non-breaking waves. The shock-capturing numerical scheme employed describes well the total decrease in wave height due to breaking, but does not reproduce the observed shoaling near the break point. The maximum water levels observed onshore near Kuala Meurisi, Sumatra, following the 26 December 2004 tsunami are well predicted given the uncertainty in the model setup. The good agreement between the model predictions and the analytical results and observations demonstrates that the numerical solution and wetting and drying methods employed are appropriate for modeling tsunami inundation for breaking and non-breaking long waves. Extension of the model to include sediment transport may be appropriate for long, non-breaking tsunami waves. Using available sediment transport formulations, the sediment deposit thickness at Kuala Meurisi is predicted generally within a factor of 2.  相似文献   

The origin and disappearance of the late Pleistocene-early Holocene short-lived coastal wetlands along the Carmel coast, Israel     

Dorit Sivan  Noam Greenbaum  Guy Sisma-Ventura 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(1):83-92

The formation of short-lived backswamps along the Carmel coast of Israel coincides with the rapid global sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene-early Holocene transition. The current study shows that the wetland phenomena originated around 10,000 yr ago and dried up shortly before the local Pre-Pottery Neolithic humans settled on the wetland dark clay sediments 9430 cal yr BP. Palaeontological and stable-isotope data were used in this study to elucidate previously published sedimentological reconstruction obtained from a core drilled into the western trough of the Carmel coastal plain. The water body contained typical brackish calcareous fauna, with variable numerical abundance and low species richness of ostracods and foraminifera. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of the ostracod Cyprideis torosa show close similarity to the present Pleistocene coastal aquifer isotopic values. This study therefore concludes that the wetlands were shallow-water bodies fed by groundwater, with no evidence of sea-water mixing. It seems that they developed as the result of high groundwater levels, transportation of sediments landward, and deposition of sand bars at the paleo-river mouths. It is still not fully understood why these wetlands deteriorated abruptly and disappeared within less than 1000 yr.  相似文献   

Seismic velocity structure of oceanic crust by inversion using genetic algorithms     

Guy G. Drijkoningen  Robert S. White 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,123(3):653-664

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Tracing groundwater flow in the Borden aquifer using krypton-85   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

William M. Smethie Jr.  D.Kip Solomon  Sherry L. Schiff  Guy G. Mathieu 《Journal of Hydrology》1992,130(1-4):279-297

Krypton-85 was measured in air, soil gas, and ground water at the Borden aquifer in Ontario in October 1989. The measured specific activities in air and soil gas were 52.0 ± 2.0 and 53.6 ± 1.8 disintegrations per min (dpm) cm⁻³ krypton. These measurements are in excellent agreement with the global atmospheric trend and demonstrate that krypton-85 enters the water table at the Borden site without a lag in the soil gas reservoir. The krypton-85 specific activity in five groundwater samples ranged from 44.9 to 9.5 dpm cm⁻³ corresponding to groundwater ages of 2–17 years with a monotonic decrease in specific activity (increase in age) along the groundwater flow path. Travel times calculated from a two-dimensional steady-state model of groundwater flow agree well with the krypton-85 ages in the main recharge region of the aquifer where flow is predominantly vertical, but were 30–40% older than the krypton-85 age downstream of the main recharge area where the flow is mainly horizontal. The effect of dispersion on the distribution of krypton-85 was determined by modelling the transport of krypton-85 in the Borden aquifer with a two-dimensional time-dependent advection dispersion model using the steady-state flow field. Agreement between model specific activity and observed specific activity was excellent for samples in the main recharge region, but the model specific activities were 30–50% lower than observed specific activities in the region of horizontal flow. The differences in travel times and krypton-85 ages and in model krypton-85 and observed krypton-85 specific activities are considered to be small given the heterogeneities that exist in the hydraulic conductivity and aquifer geometry and hence in the groundwater flow field. The model simulated krypton-85 distribution was not sensitive to changes in longitudinal dispersivity and was only weakly sensitive to changes in transverse dispersivity. The geochemical inertness, well-defined source function, and insensitivity to dispersion of krypton-85 allow estimates of groundwater age to be made in a straightforward manner and measurement of krypton-85 can significantly enhance the characterization of groundwater flow in many shallow subsurface systems.  相似文献   

Observations of currents and density structure across a buoyant plume front     

Guy Gelfenbaum  Richard P. Stumpf 《Estuaries and Coasts》1993,16(1):40-52

Observations of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, plume during a flood event in April 1991 reveal significant differences in the current field on either side of a front associated with the buoyant plume. During a strong southeasterly wind, turbid, low salinity water from Mobile Bay was pushed through an opening in the west side of the ebb-tidal delta and moved parallel to the coast. A stable front developed between the low salinity water of the buoyant plume (11‰) and the high salinity coastal water (>23‰) that was being forced landward by the prevailing winds. Despite the shallow water depth of 6 m, measurements of currents, temperature, and salinity show large shears and density gradients in both the vertical and the horizontal directions. At a station outside of the buoyant plume, currents at 0.5 m and 1.5 m below the surface were in the same direction as the wind. Inside the plume, however, currents at 0.5 m below the surface were parallel to the coast, 45°, off the direction of the wind and the magnitude was 45% larger than the magnitude of the surface currents outside the plume. Beneath the level of the plume, the currents were identical to the wind-driven currents in the ambient water south of the front. Our observations suggest that the wind-driven surface currents of the ambient water converged with the buoyant plume at the front and were subducted beneath the plume. The motion of the ambient coastal surface water was in the direction of the local wind stress, however, the motion of the plume had no northerly component of motion. The plume also did not show any flow toward the front, suggesting a balance between the northerly component of wind stress and the southerly component of buoyant spreading. In addition, the motion of the plume did not appear to affect the motion of the underlying ambient water, suggesting a lack of mixing between the two waters.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of basalts from the Dumisseau Formation, southern Haiti: implications for the origin of the Caribbean Sea crust     

Gautam Sen  Rosemary Hickey-Vargas  David Guy Waggoner  Florentin Maurrasse 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,87(4)

Basalt and diabase from the Cretaceous Dumisseau Formation, southern Haiti have Mg-numbers of 43–63, TiO₂ contents of 1.6–3.9% and La abundances of 3.6–15.3 ppm.La/Ta ratios average 10, and indicate that the basalts are oceanic in character, distinct from the arc associations forming the northern part of Haiti. Oldest lavas have low TiO₂ (1.6%) and are LREE-depleted, similar to N-MORBs, whereas overlying lavas have higher TiO₂ (2–3.9%) and are LREE-enriched, similar to E-MORBs or hotspot basalts.⁸⁷Sr⁸⁶Sr ratios vary from 0.70280 to 0.70316,¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd from 0.512929 to 0.513121, and²⁰⁶Pb²⁰⁴Pb from 19.00 to 19.27. LREE-depleted lavas have high¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51309–0.51310) typical of MORBs, whereas¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd in the LREE-enriched lavas varies widely (0.512929–0.513121).Chemical features of the Dumisseau basalts are equivalent to those of Caribbean seafloor basalts recovered on DSDP Leg 15, and support the contention that the Dumisseau is an uplifted section of Caribbean Sea crust. Oldest lavas are analogous to MORB-like basalts cored at Leg 15 Sites 146, 150, 152 and 153, and the overlying lavas are analogous to incompatible-element-enriched basalts cored at Site 151 on the Beata Ridge. Isotopic compositions of the Dumisseau basalts overlap with those of the eastern Pacific Galapagos and Easter Island hotspots. However, the presence of N-MORB basalts in the lower part of the Dumisseau and at the majority of Leg 15 Sites indicates that the anomalously thick Caribbean crust probably did not originate as a hotspot-related basaltic plateau, but may have been generated by on-ridge or near-ridge hotspot magmatism.  相似文献   

地质年代测定原理质疑——古水力学的一种新方法     

GuyBerthault 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(3):19-27

作为地质年代测定的基础是史泰侬（Stenon）于17世纪提出的三原则，即：叠加、连续性和原始水平性。这些原则又源于一项沉积学假设：土壤下的各层都是古老连续沉积的地层。因而地层学是以沉积学资料为基础的。  相似文献   

Major mergers of haloes, the growth of massive black holes and the evolving luminosity function of quasars     

Evanthia Hatziminaoglou  Guy Mathez  José-María Solanes  Alberto Manrique  Eduard Salvador-Solé 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(2):692-704

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First results from the Very Small Array – III. The cosmic microwave background power spectrum     

Paul F. Scott  Pedro Carreira  Kieran Cleary  Rod D. Davies  Richard J. Davis  Clive Dickinson  Keith Grainge  Carlos M. Gutiérrez  Michael P. Hobson  Michael E. Jones  Rüdiger Kneissl  Anthony Lasenby  Klaus Maisinger  Guy G. Pooley  Rafael Rebolo  José Alberto Rubiño-Martin †  Pedro J. Sosa Molina  Ben Rusholme ‡  Richard D. E. Saunders  Richard Savage  An&#;e Slosar  Angela C. Taylor  David Titterington  Elizabeth Waldram  Robert A. Watson §  Althea Wilkinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1076-1083

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