G. PERSONALIA     

F. Kenneth Hare  André Renaud 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):128-132

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Discussion of "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Ground Water Extraction Systems," by Jennifer Haley, Bill Hanson, Carl Enfield, and John Glass, Ground Water Monitoring Review, v. 11, no. 1, p. 119, Winter 1991.     

Paul W. Hare 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1991,11(3):235-235

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Heat Flux in the Coastal Zone   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

L. Mahrt  Dean Vickers  Jim Edson  Jielun Sun  Jørgen Højstrup  Jeffrey Hare  James M. Wilczak 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1998,86(3):421-446

Various difficulties with application of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory are surveyed including the influence of growing waves, advection and internal boundary-layer development. These complications are normally important with offshore flow. The transfer coefficient for heat is computed from eddy correlation data taken at a mast two kilometres off the Danish coast in RASEX. For these coastal zone data, the thermal roughness length shows no well-defined relation to the momentum roughness length or roughness Reynolds number, in contrast to previous theories. The variation of the momentum roughness length is dominated by wave state. In contrast, the thermal roughness length shows significant dependence on wave state only for small values of wave age where the mixing is apparently enhanced by wave breaking. The development of thin internal boundary layers with offshore flow substantially reduces the heat transfer and thermal roughness length but has no obvious influence on momentum roughness length. A new formulation of the thermal roughness length based on the internal boundary-layer depth is calibrated to the RASEX data. For the very stable case, the turbulence is mainly detached from the surface and existing formulations do not apply.As an alternative to adjusting the thermal roughness length, the transfer coefficient is related directly to the stability and the internal boundary-layer depth. This avoids specification of roughness lengths resulting from the usual integration of the non-dimensional temperature function. The resulting stability function is simpler than previous ones and satisfies free convection similarity theory without introduction of the gustiness factor. The internal boundary layer also influences the moisture transfer coefficient.  相似文献   

Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anne Babcock Hollowed  Steven R. Hare  Warren S. Wooster 《Progress in Oceanography》2001,49(1-4)

A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.  相似文献   

How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?     

Bill Hare  Malte Meinshausen 《Climatic change》2006,75(1-2):111-149

This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a ‘present forcing warming commitment’, (3) a‘zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment’ and (4) a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’. While a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’ is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2002 global mean temperatures were 0.8± 0.2 ^°C above the pre-industrial (1861–1890) mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 ^°C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 ^°C? Using a simple climate model (MAGICC) for probabilistic computations based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5 ^°C), we found that (1) a constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 ^°C with a central estimate of 2.0 ^°C by 2100 (4.2 ^°C by 2400). (2) For the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely that 2 ^°C are overshoot. (central warming estimate 1.1 ^°C by 2100 and 1.2 ^°C by 2400 with ～10% probability of overshooting 2 ^°C). However, the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above 400 ppm CO₂ equivalence (1.95 W/m²) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems ‘exceptionally unlikely’ that 2 ^°C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 ^°C by 2100; 0.4 ^°C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios (350 ppm CO₂eq to 450 ppm CO₂eq) provides the central temperature projections are 1.5 to 2.1 ^°C by 2100 (1.5 to 2.0 ^°C by 2400) with a risk of overshooting 2 ^°C between 10 and 50% by 2100 and 1–32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the ‘avoidable warming’ to be 0.16–0.26 ^°C for every 100 GtC of avoided CO₂ emissions – based on a range of published mitigation scenarios.  相似文献   

Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States     

Kevin D. Friedland  Jonathan A. Hare 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST−winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring warming and fall cooling rates. Trends in all of the parameters were examined after low-pass filtering using a 10-point convolution filter (n=10 years) and regime shifts were identified using the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) method. The analysis shows some difference between regions in the timing of minimum SST with minima being reached 1 month earlier in the south (February) relative to more northern regions (March). Regional annual SST range decreased in a seaward direction. Amplitude of summer warming and the length of summer have shown fluctuations with recent years showing stronger warming and longer summers but generally not exceeding past levels. Overall, the difference in SST range, with recent larger values may be the most significant finding of this work. SST range changes have the potential to disrupt species important to local fisheries due to combinations of differing temperature tolerances, changes in reproduction potential, and changes in the distributional range of species.  相似文献   

Toward cyberinfrastructure to facilitate collaboration and reproducibility for marine integrated ecosystem assessments     

Stace E. Beaulieu  Peter A. Fox  Massimo Di Stefano  Andrew Maffei  Patrick West  Jonathan A. Hare  Michael Fogarty 《Earth Science Informatics》2017,10(1):85-97

There is a growing need for cyberinfrastructure to support science-based decision making in management of natural resources. In particular, our motivation was to aid the development of cyberinfrastructure for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) for marine ecosystems. The IEA process involves analysis of natural and socio-economic information based on diverse and disparate sources of data, requiring collaboration among scientists of many disciplines and communication with other stakeholders. Here we describe our bottom-up approach to developing cyberinfrastructure through a collaborative process engaging a small group of domain and computer scientists and software engineers. We report on a use case evaluated for an Ecosystem Status Report, a multi-disciplinary report inclusive of Earth, life, and social sciences, for the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem. Ultimately, we focused on sharing workflows as a component of the cyberinfrastructure to facilitate collaboration and reproducibility. We developed and deployed a software environment to generate a portion of the Report, retaining traceability of derived datasets including indicators of climate forcing, physical pressures, and ecosystem states. Our solution for sharing workflows and delivering reproducible documents includes IPython (now Jupyter) Notebooks. We describe technical and social challenges that we encountered in the use case and the importance of training to aid the adoption of best practices and new technologies by domain scientists. We consider the larger challenges for developing end-to-end cyberinfrastructure that engages other participants and stakeholders in the IEA process.  相似文献   

An introduction to the PICES symposium on the nature and impacts of North Pacific climate regime shifts     

Steven R. Hare  Shoshiro Minobe  Warren S. Wooster  Skip McKinnell 《Progress in Oceanography》2000,47(2-4)

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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation   总被引：60，自引：1，他引：60  

Nathan J. Mantua  Steven R. Hare 《Journal of Oceanography》2002,58(1):35-44

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.  相似文献   

Biomechanical properties and morphological characteristics of lake and river plants: implications for adaptations to flow conditions     

Oliver Miler  Ismail Albayrak  Vladimir Nikora  Matthew O’Hare 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2014,76(4):465-481

Biomechanical properties and morphological characteristics of stems of eight species of submerged aquatic plants were studied to analyse (1) differences between river and lake specimens, (2) seasonal differences between winter/spring and summer/autumn specimens, and (3) change of biomechanical properties and morphological characteristics along the stems. The data show that river macrophytes display not only characteristic biomechanical traits and morphological characteristics specific to their hydraulic habitats, but also distinctive temporal changes due to seasonally varying water temperature, flow velocity, and growth phase. Furthermore, the data reveal differences between lake and river specimens that could be explained by wind exposure of the lake sampling sites and the species-specific flow requirements of the river macrophytes. Biomechanical properties and morphological characteristics varied along the stem with larger cross-sections and a higher resistance against tension and bending forces at the bottom compared to the top parts, being similar for both lake and river specimens. The acquired and analysed stem biomechanical and morphological data contribute to the plant biomechanics database to underpin a wide range of studies in aquatic ecology, river and wetland management.  相似文献