Out-burst flood (lahar) triggered by retrogressive landsliding, 18 March 2007 at Mt Ruapehu,New Zealand—a successful early warning     

Christopher I. Massey  Vernon Manville  Graham H. Hancox  Harry J. Keys  Colin Lawrence  Mauri McSaveney 《Landslides》2010,7(3):303-315

The summit crater of Mt Ruapehu volcano normally hosts a 15.4-ha warm lake, whose water has been repeatedly wholly or partly ejected by explosive and extrusive eruptions. Some of the larger eruptions have modified the lake outlet by burying it under unconsolidated tephra (volcanic ash and blocks), creating a dam-break flood hazard independently of the occurrence of an eruption. Eruptions in 1995 and 1996 followed this sequence; a break-out flood was anticipated and a warning system was installed to mitigate the risk from this event and subsequent lahars in the same catchment. The 11-year filling time allowed much planning and rehearsal. The warning system involved manual inspections of dam integrity, and seepage and lake-level monitoring to constrain the likely failure window, and telemetered instruments including a tripwire and geophones to detect breaching of the dam and propagation of the outbreak flood. The dam-collapse sequence, captured by a time-lapse camera, involved a series of retrogressing landslides initiated and accelerated by seepage forces and toe scour when the lake was 1.1 m below overtopping. The barrier failed in two phases on 18th March, 2007, beginning at 09:55 (NZST), with rapid retreat of one of the erosion scarps on the downstream slope of the eastern barrier, initiated by internal erosion. Headward retrogression of the scarp into the barrier formed an initial breach in the dam, after which increasing outflow led to erosion and undercutting of the wider downstream toe of the western barrier. A final, larger dam breach occurred between 11:21 and 11:22 as slope instability caused retrogressive failure of the remaining barrier. Five-hundred meters downstream of the dam, a large landslide was reactivated by toe scour during the flood, contributing about a million cubic meters of solid material to the volumetric bulking of the outflow, which reached the coast, 215 km away, 17 h later. The success of the planning and warning system allowed the whole event to occur with little damage to infrastructure and without causing injury.  相似文献   

Formation of pyroxenite layers in the Totalp ultramafic massif (Swiss Alps) - Insights from highly siderophile elements and Os isotopes     

David van Acken  Harry Becker  William F. McDonough  Richard D. Ash 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(2):661-6182

Pyroxenitic layers are a minor constituent of ultramafic mantle massifs, but are considered important for basalt generation and mantle refertilization. Mafic spinel websterite and garnet-spinel clinopyroxenite layers within Jurassic ocean floor peridotites from the Totalp ultramafic massif (eastern Swiss Alps) were analyzed for their highly siderophile element (HSE) and Os isotope composition.Aluminum-poor pyroxenites (websterites) display chondritic to suprachondritic initial γ_Os (160 Ma) of −2 to +27. Osmium, Ir and Ru abundances are depleted in websterites relative to the associated peridotites and to mantle lherzolites worldwide, but relative abundances (Os/Ir, Ru/Ir) are similar. Conversely, Pt/Ir, Pd/Ir and Re/Ir are elevated.Aluminum-rich pyroxenites (clinopyroxenites) are characterized by highly radiogenic ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os with initial γ_Os (160 Ma) between +20 and +1700. Their HSE composition is similar to that of basalts, as they are more depleted in Os, Ir and Ru compared to Totalp websterites, along with even higher Pt/Ir, Pd/Ir and Re/Ir. The data are most consistent with multiple episodes of reaction of mafic pyroxenite precursor melts with surrounding peridotites, with the highest degree of interaction recorded in the websterites, which typically occur in direct contact to peridotites. Clinopyroxenites, in contrast, represent melt-dominated systems, which retained the precursor melt characteristics to a large extent. The melts may have been derived from a sublithospheric mantle source with high Pd/Ir, Pt/Ir and Re/Os, coupled with highly radiogenic ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os compositions. Modeling indicates that partial melting of subducted, old oceanic crust in the asthenosphere could be a possible source for such melts.Pentlandite and godlevskite are identified in both types of pyroxenites as the predominant sulfide minerals and HSE carriers. Heterogeneous HSE abundances within these sulfide grains likely reflect subsolidus processes. In contrast, large grain-to-grain variations, and correlated variations of HSE ratios, indicate chemical disequilibrium under high-temperature conditions. This likely reflects multiple events of melt-rock interaction and sulfide precipitation. Notably, sulfides from the same thick section for the pyroxenites may display both residual-peridotite and melt-like HSE signatures. Because Totalp pyroxenites are enriched in Pt and Re, and depleted in Os, they will develop excess radiogenic ¹⁸⁷Os and ¹⁸⁶Os, compared to ambient mantle. These enrichments, however, do not possess the requisite Pt-Re-Os composition to account for the coupled suprachondritic ¹⁸⁶Os-¹⁸⁷Os signatures observed in some Hawaiian picrites, Gorgona komatiites, or the Siberian plume.  相似文献   

Two new eucrite breccias from Northwest Africa     

Sheryl A. SINGERLING  Aubrey L. MODI  Blake MCFERRIN  Emily A. WORSHAM  Harry Y. MCSWEEN JR.  Douglas RUMBLE III  Ryoji TANAKA  Lawrence A. TAYLOR 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(2):E1-E9

Abstract– This work describes two newly discovered eucrite breccias: three presumably paired meteorites, all named Northwest Africa (NWA) 6105, and NWA 6106. For each meteorite, major‐ and minor‐element compositions of minerals were determined using the electron microprobe. Pyroxene Fe‐Mn co‐variations and bulk‐rock oxygen isotope compositions confirm their classification as eucrites. Variations in mineral compositions and textures are attributed to differences in clast types present (i.e., basaltic or cumulate eucrite). The pyroxene compositions support the hypothesis that samples NWA 6105,1; 6105,2; and 6105,3 are paired polymict eucritic breccias, whereas sample NWA 6106 is a monomict basaltic eucritic breccia. Two‐pyroxene geothermometry yields temperatures too low for igneous crystallization. The variation in temperatures among samples suggests that metamorphism occurred prior to brecciation.  相似文献   

Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter     

Hye-In Jeong  Doo Young Lee  Karumuri Ashok  Joong-Bae Ahn  June-Yi Lee  Jing-Jia Luo  Jae-Kyung E. Schemm  Harry H. Hendon  Karl Braganza  Yoo-Geun Ham 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):475-493

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.  相似文献   

The use of GPS for marine positioning in Germany—requirements,experience, and concepts     

Wolfgang Lechner  Gunther Braun  Harry Wirth 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):233-241

Abstract

While beginning to establish a German Civil GPS Information and Observation Service in 1990, the actual and (near) future GPS market in Germany was analyzed. In addition, the feasibility of using GPS for water authority tasks has been studied during past years. Typical capabilities in this area are real‐time positioning for hydrographic surveying (kinematic application) and precise transfer of levels to tide gauges and verification at offshore positions.

The article describes the user interests, the requirements, some of the test campaigns, and the derived concepts for future applications.  相似文献   

Aircraft measurements and model simulations of stratospheric ozone and N2O: implications for chemistry and transport processes in the models     

Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath  Armin Kleinböhl  Holger Bremer  Harry Küllmann  Justus Notholt  Björn-Martin Sinnhuber  Wuhu Feng  Martyn Chipperfield 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2010,66(1-2):41-64

Airborne measurements of stratospheric ozone and N₂O from the SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer) Validation and Utilization Experiment (SCIA-VALUE) are presented. The campaign was conducted in September 2002 and February–March 2003. The Airborne Submillimeter Radiometer (ASUR) observed stratospheric constituents like O₃ and N₂O, among others, spanning a latitude from 5°S to 80°N during the survey. The tropical ozone source regions show high ozone volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of around 11 ppmv at 33 km altitude, and the altitude of the maximum VMR increases from the tropics to the Arctic. The N₂O VMRs show the largest value of 325 ppbv in the lower stratosphere, indicating their tropospheric origin, and they decrease with increasing altitude and latitude due to photolysis. The sub-tropical and polar mixing barriers are well represented in the N₂O measurements. The most striking seasonal difference found in the measurements is the large polar descent in February–March. The observed features are interpreted with the help of SLIMCAT and Bremen Chemical Transport Model (CTMB) simulations. The SLIMCAT simulations are in good agreement with the measured O₃ and N₂O values, where the differences are within 1 ppmv for O₃ and 15 ppbv for N₂O. However, the CTMB simulations underestimate the tropical middle stratospheric O₃ (1–1.5 ppmv) and the tropical lower stratospheric N₂O (15–30 ppbv) measurements. A detailed analysis with various measurements and model simulations suggests that the biases in the CTMB simulations are related to its parameterised chemistry schemes.  相似文献   

Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models     

Alan M. Haywood  Mark A. Chandler  Paul J. Valdes  Ulrich Salzmann  Daniel J. Lunt  Harry J. Dowsett 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,66(3-4):208-224

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3 million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data.  相似文献   

High Lake gossan deposit: An Arctic analogue for ancient Martian surficial processes?     

L. West  T.C. Onstott  R.V. Morris  L.M. Pratt 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(11):1302-1311

Gossan samples collected during a reconnaissance expedition to High Lake in Nunavut, Canada, were analyzed to determine their mineral components and to define parameters for the geochemical environment in which they formed. The gossan represents a natural acid drainage site in an arctic environment that serves as an analogue to the conditions under which sulfate and Fe-oxide possibly formed on Mars. Rock and soil samples were taken from three different outcrops and analyzed using XRD, SEM/EDS and Mössbauer. Two main mineral assemblages were observed. The first assemblage, which was found primarily in samples from the first outcrop, contained chlorite, Fe-phosphates, Fe-oxide and quartz. The second assemblage, which was found at the second and third outcrops, was primarily quartz, mica and jarosite. One sample (G41), containing Fe-oxide, jarosite and gypsum, appears to be transitional between a Fe-oxide dominant assemblage to a jarosite dominant assemblage. Thermodynamic equilibria predicts that the gossan pore water should range from mildly acidic, relatively sulfate-poor (pH 3-6; SO₄ <1000 mg l⁻¹) to highly acidic and relatively sulfate-rich (pH 0.5-3; SO₄ >3000 mg l⁻¹) for the first and second mineral assemblages, respectively. Kinetic reaction models indicate that the second assemblage replaces the first during evaporation or freezing of water. Compared to acid mine drainage (AMD) sites located in temperate regions, the arctic High Lake gossan lacks diversity in sulfate species and has smaller diagenetic crystal sizes. The smaller crystal size may reflect the slower reaction rates at colder temperatures and the seasonal water saturation. These initial results indicate that the High Lake gossan deposit does record mechanisms for which minerals like hematite, goethite, gypsum and jarosite, which are found on Mars, can form in an environment that involves seasonal water occurrence in a cold climate.  相似文献   

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints     

Martin Sahlén  Pedro T. P. Viana  rew R. Liddle  A. Kathy Romer  Michael Davidson  Mark Hosmer  Ed Lloyd-Davies  Kivanc Sabirli  Chris A. Collins  Peter E. Freeman  Matt Hilton  Ben Hoyle  Scott T. Kay  Robert G. Mann  Nicola Mehrtens  Christopher J. Miller  Robert C. Nichol  S. Adam Stanford  Michael J. West  † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(2):577-607

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.  相似文献   

Methods in radiative transfer: Edited by Wolfgang Kalkofen. Cambridge Univ. Press,Cambridge, 1984. 450 pp., $52.50     

Robert A. West 《Icarus》1985,64(2):338-339

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