Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2: a study with a model of intermediate complexity     

I.?V.?KamenkovichEmail author  A.?P.?Sokolov  P.?H.?Stone 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(2):119-130

A three-dimensional ocean model with an idealized geometry and coarse resolution coupled to a two-dimensional (zonally averaged) statistical-dynamical atmospheric model is used to simulate the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO ₂ concentration in the atmosphere. The relative roles of different factors in the slowing down and recovery of the thermohaline circulation were studied by performing simulations with ocean only and partially coupled models. The computational efficiency of the model allows an extensive and thorough study of the causes of changes in the strength of the thermohaline circulation, through a large number of extended runs. The evolution of the atmosphere-to-ocean surface heat fluxes is shown to be the dominant factor in causing the weakening of the circulation in response to an increasing external forcing as well as in controlling the subsequent recovery. The feedback between heat flux and the sea surface temperature is necessary for the ocean circulation to recover. The rate of the recovery, however, is not sensitive to the magnitude of the feedback, and changes in the atmosphere, while contributing to the recovery, play a secondary role. In the case of very strong feedback, substantial changes in the SST structure are shown not to be a necessary condition for the recovery of the circulation. Subsurface changes in the density structure accompany recovery despite nearly fixed SST in one of the uncoupled experiments. Changes in the zonal distribution of heat fluxes serve as a positive feedback for both decrease and recovery of the meridional overturning, and are as important as changes in the zonal-mean values of heat fluxes. The secondary role of the moisture fluxes is explained by a smaller magnitude of their contribution to the surface buoyancy flux. Imposing amplified changes in the moisture fluxes leads to a significant slow down of the circulation, accompanied, however, by changes in the heat flux. The changed heat flux, in its turn, makes a significant contribution to the future slow down. This feedback complicates the evaluation of the relative roles of the different fluxes.  相似文献   

Advances in studying oceanic circulation from hydrographic data with applications in the South China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王桂华  李荣凤  闫长香 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):914-920

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Summary of recent volcanic activity     

Jennifer?FelaEmail author 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(8):622-623

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Volumetric characteristics of lava flows from interferometric radar and multispectral satellite data: the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos     

Scott?K.?RowlandEmail author  Andrew?J.?L.?Harris  Martin?J.?Wooster  Falk?Amelung  Harold?Garbeil  Lionel?Wilson  Peter?J.?Mouginis-Mark 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(5):311-330

We have used a suite of remotely sensed data, numerical lava flow modeling, and field observations to determine quantitative characteristics of the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos Islands. Flank lava flow areas, volumes, instantaneous effusion rates, and average effusion rates were all determined for these two eruptions, for which only limited syn-eruptive field observations are available. Using data from SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2, we determined that the 1995 Fernandina flow covers a subaerial area of 6.5×10⁶ m² and has a subaerial dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of 42×10⁶ m³. Field observations, ATSR satellite data, and the FLOWGO numerical model allow us to determine that the effusion rate declined exponentially from a high of ~60–200 m³ s^-1 during the first few hours to <5 m³ s^-1 prior to ceasing after 73 days, with a mean effusion rate of 4–16 m³ s^-1. Integrating the ATSR-derived, exponentially declining effusion rate over the eruption duration produces a total (subaerial + submarine) DRE volume of between 27 and 100×10⁶ m³, the range in values being due to differing assumptions about heat loss characteristics; only values in the higher part of this range are consistent with the independently derived subaerial volume. Using SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2 data, we determine that the 1998 Cerro Azul flow is 16 km long, covers 16 km², and has a DRE volume of 54×10⁶ m³. FLOWGO produces at-vent velocity and effusion rate values of 11 m s^-1 and ~600 m³ s^-1, respectively. The velocity value agrees well with the 12 m s^-1 estimated in the field. The mean effusion rate (total DRE volume/duration) was 7–47 m³ s^-1. Dike dimensions, fissure lengths, and pressure gradients along the conduit based on magma chamber depth estimates of 3–5 km produce mean effusion rates for the two eruptions that range over nearly four orders of magnitude, the range being due to uncertainty in the magma viscosity, dike dimensions, and pressure gradient between magma chamber and vent. Although somewhat consistent with mean effusion rates from other techniques, their wide range makes them less useful. The exponentially declining effusion rates during both eruptions are consistent with release of elastic strain being the driving mechanism of the eruptions. Our results provide independent input parameters for previously published theoretical relationships between magma chamber pressurization and eruption rates that constrain chamber volumes and increases in volume prior to eruption, as well as time constants of exponential decay during the eruption. The results and theoretical relationships combine to indicate that at both volcanoes probably 25–30% of the volumetric increase in the magma chamber erupted as lava onto the surface. In both eruptions the lava flow volumes are less than 1% of the magma chamber volume.  相似文献   

The 1999 and 2000 eruptions of Mount Cameroon: eruption behaviour and petrochemistry of lava     

C.?E.?Suh  S.?N.?Ayonghe  R.?S.?J.?SparksEmail author  C.?Annen  J.?G.?Fitton  R.?Nana  A.?Luckman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):267-281

Mount Cameroon (4,095 m high and with a volume of ~1,200 km³) is one of the most active volcanoes in Africa, having erupted seven times in the last 100 years. This stratovolcano of basanite and hawaiite lavas has an elliptical shape, with over a hundred cones around its flanks and summit region aligned parallel to its NE--SW-trending long axis. The 1999 (28 March–22 April) eruption was restricted to two sites: ~2,650 m (site 1) and ~1,500 m (site 2). Similarly, in the eruption in 2000 (28 May–19 June), activity occurred at two sites: ~4,095 m (site 1) and ~3,300 m (site 2). During both eruptions, the higher vents were more explosive, with strombolian activity, while the lower vents were more effusive. Accordingly, most of the lava (~8×10⁷ m³ in 1999 and ~6×10⁶ m³ in 2000) was emitted from the lower sites. The 1999–2000 lavas are predominantly basanites with low Ni (5–79 ppm), Cr (40–161 ppm) and mg numbers (34–40). Olivine (Fo_77–85, phenocrysts and Fo_68–72, microlites), clinopyroxene (Wo₄₇En₄₁Fs₁₀ to Wo₅₁En₃₄Fs₁₅), plagioclase (An_49–67) and titanomagnetite are the principal phenocryst and groundmass phases. The lavas contain xenocrysts of olivine and clinopyroxene, which are interpreted as fragments of intrusive rocks disrupted by magma ascent. Major and trace element characteristics point to early fractionation of olivine. The clinopyroxenes (Al₂O₃ 1.36–7.83 wt%) have high Al^iv/Al^vi ratios (1.3–1.8) and are rich in TiO₂, characteristics typical of low pressure clinopyroxenes. Geochemical differences between the 1999–2000 lavas and those from previous eruptions, such as higher Nb/Zr of the former, suggest that different eruptions discharged magmas that evolved differently in space and time. Geophysical and petrological data indicate that these fractionated magmas originated just below the geophysical Moho (at 20–22 km) in the lithospheric mantle. During ascent, the magmas disrupted intrusions and earlier magma pockets. The main ascent path is below the summit, where newly arrived magma degasses. Degassed magma simultaneously intrudes the flank rift zones where most lava is extruded.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Was a dacite dome implicated in the 9,500 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b.p.</Emphasis> collapse of Mt Ruapehu? A palaeomagnetic investigation     

Elizabeth?McClellandEmail author  Patrick?S.?Erwin 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):294-305

Constraining the process by which volcanoes become unstable is difficult. Several models have been proposed to explain the driving forces which cause volcanic edifices to catastrophically collapse. These include models for destabilisation of volcanic flanks by wedging due to dyke intrusion and the weakening of mechanical properties by pressurisation of pore fluids. It is not known which, if any, of the models are relevant to particular sector collapse events. Recent developments in the palaeomagnetic estimation of emplacement temperatures of volcaniclastic rocks have shown that even relatively low emplacement temperatures can be recorded by volcaniclastics with high fidelity. We have carried out a palaeomagnetic study of emplacement temperatures to investigate the role of igneous activity in the initiation of the 9,500 b.p. Murimotu sector collapse of Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand. This debris avalanche deposit has three fades which are stratigraphically superimposed, and the lowermost fades contains three lithological assemblages representing different segments of the edifice which were transported with little internal mixing within the flow. We have determined that some of the dacite-bearing assemblage 1, fades 1 was hot (∼350 °C) during transport and emplacement, whereas none of the other lithological assemblages of fades contained hot material. Our interpretation is that a dacite dome was active on the ancient Ruapehu edifice immediately prior to the Murimotu sector collapse. The partially cooled carapace of the dome and material shed from this part was incorporated into the avalanche deposit, along with cold lavas and volcaniclastics. We have not found evidence for incorporation of material at or close to magmatic temperatures, at least in the sampled locations. Our palaeomagnetic work allows us to develop a comprehensive, new palaeomagnetic classification of volcaniclastics. Published online: 25 January 2003 Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell  相似文献   

Risk assessment of the impact of pyroclastic currents on the towns located around Vesuvio: a non-linear structural inverse analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

L.?NunzianteEmail author  M.?Fraldi  L.?Lirer  P.?Petrosino  S.?Scotellaro  C.?Cicirelli 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(8):547-561

In a.d. 79, the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvio, which later was described in two famous letters by Pliny the Younger to Tacitus the Historian, destroyed Pompeii, Hercolaneum, Oplontis and Stabiae, resulting in many thousand of victims. After a few hours of the eruption, the several-kilometre-high volcanic column began to collapse, provoking strong air shocks as well as destructive pyroclastic density currents, which travelled down the volcano slopes. In 2000, an archaeological excavation survey, which was performed on the east slope of the volcano in the Terzigno–Vesuvio area at a distance of about 5 km from the vent, brought to light the ruins of several Roman villas that were completely destroyed by these currents during the a.d. 79 eruption. The present paper proposes a new structural analysis, which starts from the study of the damage produced on partially collapsed masonry walls, and determines the dynamic pressures of the currents that overran this site. The non-linear structural analysis, which is based on strength values obtained by means of experimental tests, is of the 'inverse type' and takes into account the limit behaviour of the ancient Roman masonry. The values of the dynamic pressures that were capable of producing the collapse of the masonry walls were obtained by utilising a modern limit analysis theory. The obtained results show that dynamic pressures of a few kPa (1–5) were able to cause masonry buildings to collapse. These values are consistent with those proposed in some of the latest volcanological studies made by numerical simulations of pyroclastic flow propagation. It is shown here that these dynamic pressures are even able to determine the collapse of both modern reinforced concrete and masonry wall buildings that are largely present in the area. Therefore, in possible future eruptions, dynamic pressures of this magnitude would flatten a large urbanised area, where ~700,000 people are currently living. The obtained results give a better definition of both the risk to pyroclastic currents in possible Vesuvio eruptions and provide new guidelines for construction in the neighbouring zones.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods  相似文献   

The impact of moderate-scale explosive eruptions on stratospheric gas injections   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M.?M.?HalmerEmail author  H.-U.?Schmincke 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(6):433-440

Volcanic gases such as SO ₂, H ₂S, HCl and COS emitted during explosive eruptions significantly affect atmospheric chemistry and therefore the Earth's climate. We have evaluated the dependence of volcanic gas emission into the atmosphere on altitude, latitude, and tectonic setting of volcanoes and on the season in which eruptions occurred. These parameters markedly influence final stratospheric gas loading. The latitudes and altitudes of 360 active volcanoes were compared to the height of the tropopause to calculate the potential quantity of volcanic gases injected into the stratosphere. We calculated a possible stratospheric gas loading based on different volcanic plume heights (6, 10, and 15 km) generated by moderate-scale explosive eruptions to show the importance of the actual plume height and volcano location. At a plume height of 15 km for moderate-scale explosive eruptions, a volcano at sea level can cause stratospheric gas loading because the maximum distance to the tropopause is 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°). Eruptions in the tropics have to be more powerful to inject gas into the stratosphere than eruptions at high latitudes because the tropopause rises from ca. 9–11 km at the poles to 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°N and S). The equatorial region is important for stratospheric gas injection because it is the area with the highest frequency of eruptions. Gas injected into the stratosphere in equatorial areas may spread globally into both hemispheres.  相似文献   

Seismicity and crustal deformation preceding the January 1996 eruptions at Karymsky Volcanic Center,Kamchatka     

Vyacheslav?M.?ZobinEmail author  Valeria?I.?Levina  Mefodi?A.?Maguskin 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(7):477-485

Two explosive eruptions occurred on 2 January 1996 at Karymsky Volcanic Center (KVC) in Kamchatka, Russia: the first, dacitic, from the central vent of Karymsky volcano, and the second, several hours later, from Karymskoye lake in the caldera of Akademia Nauk volcano. The main significance of the 1996 volcanic events in KVC was the phreatomagmatic eruption in Karymskoye lake, which was the first eruption in this lake in historical time, and was a basaltic eruption at the acidic volcanic center. The volcanic events were associated with the 1 January Ms 6.7 (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred at a distance of about 9–17 km southeast from the volcanoes just before the eruptions. We study the long-term (1972–1995) and short-term (1–2 January 1996) characteristics of crustal deformations and seismicity before the double eruptive event in KVC. The 1972–1995 crustal deformation was homogeneous and characterized by a gradual extension with a steady velocity. The seismic activity in 1972–1995 developed at the depth interval from 0 to 20 km below the Akademia Nauk volcano and spread to the southeast along a regional fault. The seismic activity in January 1996 began with a short sequence of very shallow microearthquakes (M ~0) beneath Karymsky volcano. Then seismic events sharply increased in magnitude (up to mb 4.9) and moved along the regional fault to the southeast, culminating in the Ms 6.7 earthquake. Its aftershocks were located to the southeast and northwest from the main shock, filling the space between the two active volcanoes and the ancient basaltic volcano of Zhupanovsky Vostryaki. The eruption in Karymskoye lake began during the aftershock sequence. We consider that the Ms 6.7 earthquake opened the passageway for basic magma located below Zhupanovsky Vostryaki volcano that fed the eruption in Karymskoye lake.  相似文献   

A preliminary study on sediment flux in the Changjiang Delta during the postglacial period   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

李保华  李从先  沈焕庭 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(7):743-752

During the last 7000 years since the Changjiang Delta was formed, how much sediment brought by the Changjiang River remained in the modern Changjiang Delta? And how much sediment was delivered into the sea and adjacent coasts? These are very important que…  相似文献