Frozen-anomaly transformation for the elliptic rendezvous problem     

Javier Roa  Jesús Peláez 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2015,121(1):61-81

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Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM     

Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds  Page Kyle  Patrick Luckow  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):545-560

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.  相似文献   

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts     

Javier Tomasella  Patrícia F. Pinho  Laura S. Borma  José A. Marengo  Carlos A. Nobre  Olga R. F. O. Bittencourt  Maria C. R. Prado  Daniel A. Rodriguez  Luz A. Cuartas 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):723-746

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)     

Ken Kobayashi  Jonathan Cirtain  Amy R. Winebarger  Kelly Korreck  Leon Golub  Robert W. Walsh  Bart De Pontieu  Craig DeForest  Alan Title  Sergey Kuzin  Sabrina Savage  Dyana Beabout  Brent Beabout  William Podgorski  David Caldwell  Kenneth McCracken  Mark Ordway  Henry Bergner  Richard Gates  Sean McKillop  Peter Cheimets  Simon Platt  Nick Mitchell  David Windt 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4393-4412

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.  相似文献   

The NLTE Formation of Iron Lines Used in Solar Polarimetry     

Shchukina  Nataliya G.  Bueno  Javier Trujillo  Kostik  Roman I. 《Solar physics》1997,172(1-2):117-124

We study in some detail one-dimensional NLTE effects in solar Fei lines. The lines selected are frequently used in solar polarimetry, and also in studies of line asymmetries and for abundance determinations. Our model atom for Fei–Feii–Feiii is realistic: it takes account of multiplet structure and it includes over 200 bound–bound and bound–free transitions in detail. We use very efficient iterative methods for the self-consistent solution of the kinetic and radiative transfer equations (Auer, Fabiani Bendicho, and Trujillo Bueno, 1994). We have applied these fast methods of solution because they are suitable for the investigation of 2D and 3D NLTE transfer effects with multilevel atoms, which constitutes the next step of our ongoing research project on the iron line formation problem.  相似文献   

Onset of Convection,Heat Flow and Thickness of the Europa‘s ice Shell     

Ruiz  Javier 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1997,77(2):99-104

The observational evidence given by Galileo spacecraft about Europa supports an icy rigid layer of several kilometers over another ductile layer of ice in convection, which floats over an internal ocean of liquid water. Before the onset of convection, heat is transmitted into the crust by conduction. The heat flow analysis in the potentially convective layer gives values higher than those obtained previously by tidal dissipation models, and suggests that the ice may be limited to a thin layer of ∼4 km total thickness. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Near Infrared Spectra of two Asteroids with low Tisserand Invariant     

Julie Ziffer  Humberto Campins  Javier Licandro  Noemi Pinilla-Alonso  Yanga Fernandez  Schelte J. Bus 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):203-212

We present near infrared reflectance spectra from 0.8 to 2.5 μm of two asteroids with low Tisserand invariant, 1373 Cincinnati and 2906 Caltech. We compare our spectra with cometary nuclei and other asteroids in their class. Asteroids Cincinnati and Caltech have Tisserand invariant values of 2.72 and 2.97, respectively, values less than 3 are considered suggestive of cometary origin. The observed spectral slopes in the near-infrared are consistent with both the spectra of cometary nuclei and of primitive asteroids. However, both asteroids have features in the near-infrared that are not seen in cometary nuclei, but are present in other X-type asteroids. 1373 Cincinnati has a sharp slope change between 0.75 and 1.0 μm and 2906 Caltech has a broad and shallow absorption between 1.35 and 2.2 μm. Our attempts to model the visible and near-infrared spectrum of these two objects, with the components successfully used by Emery and Brown (2004, Icarus 164, 104–121) to fit Trojan asteroids, did not yield acceptable fits.Visiting Astronomer at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.  相似文献   

Using SHRIMP zircon dating to unravel tectonothermal events in arc environments. The early Palaeozoic arc of NW Iberia revisited     

Jacobo Abati  Pedro Castieiras  Ricardo Arenas  Javier Fernndez‐Surez  Juan Gmez Barreiro  Joseph L. Wooden 《地学学报》2007,19(6):432-439

Abstract Dating of zircon cores and rims from granulites developed in a shear zone provides insights into the complex relationship between magmatism and metamorphism in the deep roots of arc environments. The granulites belong to the uppermost allochthonous terrane of the NW Iberian Massif, which forms part of a Cambro‐Ordovician magmatic arc developed in the peri‐Gondwanan realm. The obtained zircon ages confirm that voluminous calc‐alkaline magmatism peaked around 500 Ma and was shortly followed by granulite facies metamorphism accompanied by deformation at c. 480 Ma, giving a time framework for crustal heating, regional metamorphism, deformation and partial melting, the main processes that control the tectonothermal evolution of arc systems. Traces of this arc can be discontinuously followed in different massifs throughout the European Variscan Belt, and we propose that the uppermost allochthonous units of the NW Iberian Massif, together with the related terranes in Europe, constitute an independent and coherent terrane that drifted away from northern Gondwana prior to the Variscan collisional orogenesis.  相似文献