How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

Heidi Kreibich  Veit Blauhut  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  Laurens M. Bouwer  Henny A.J. Van Lanen  Alfonso Mejia 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(1):1-18

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.  相似文献   

Surface loading of a viscoelastic earth—II. Spherical models     

Jeroen Tromp  & Jerry X. Mitrovica 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(3):856-872

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Dispersion in the Wake of a Rectangular Building: Validation of Two Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Modelling Approaches     

Catherine Gorlé  Jeroen van Beeck  Patrick Rambaud 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,137(1):115-133

When modelling the turbulent dispersion of a passive tracer using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations, two different approaches can be used. The first consists of solving a transport equation for a scalar, where the governing parameters are the mean velocity field and the turbulent diffusion coefficient, given by the ratio of the turbulent viscosity and the turbulent Schmidt number Sc _t . The second approach uses a Lagrangian particle tracking algorithm, where the governing parameters are the mean velocity and the fluctuating velocity field, which is determined from the turbulence kinetic energy and the Lagrangian time T _L . A comparison between the two approaches and wind-tunnel data for the dispersion in the wake of a rectangular building immersed in a neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is presented. Particular attention was paid to the influence of turbulence model parameters on the flow and concentration field. In addition, an approach to estimate Sc _t and T _L based on the calculated flow field is proposed. The results show that applying modified turbulence model constants to enable correct modelling of the ABL improves the prediction for the velocity and concentration fields when the modification is restricted to the region for which it was derived. The difference between simulated and measured concentrations is smaller than 25% or the uncertainty of the data on 76% of the points when solving the transport equation for a scalar with the proposed formulation for Sc _t , and on 69% of the points when using the Lagrangian particle tracking with the proposed formulation for T _L .  相似文献   

Safe climate policy is affordable—12 reasons   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):339-385

There is a widespread sense that a sufficiently stringent climate mitigation policy, that is, a considerable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid extreme climate change, will come with very high economic costs for society. This is supported by many cost–benefit analyses (CBA) and policy cost assessments of climate policy. All of these, nevertheless, are based on debatable assumptions. This paper will argue instead that safe climate policy is not excessively expensive and is indeed cheaper than suggested by most current studies. To this end, climate CBA and policy cost assessments are critically evaluated, and as a replacement twelve complementary perspectives on the cost of climate policy are offered.  相似文献   

Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public debate   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. Arjan Wardekker  Arthur C. Petersen  Jeroen P. van der Sluijs 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):512-521

Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. This paper aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. It analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: ‘conservational stewardship’ (conserving the ‘garden of God’ as it was created), ‘developmental stewardship’ (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and ‘developmental preservation’ (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor – in developing nations and the US itself – may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives.  相似文献   

A Comprehensive Modelling Approach for the Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Consistent Inflow Conditions, Wall Function and Turbulence Model     

Alessandro Parente  Catherine Gorlé  Jeroen van Beeck  Carlo Benocci 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,140(3):411-428

We report on a novel approach for the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), using the standard k-ek-{\varepsilon} turbulence model. A new inlet condition for turbulent kinetic energy is analytically derived from the solution of the k-ek-{\varepsilon} model transport equations, resulting in a consistent set of fully developed inlet conditions for the neutral ABL. A modification of the standard k-ek-{\varepsilon} model is also employed to ensure consistency between the inlet conditions and the turbulence model. In particular, the turbulence model constant C _μ is generalized as a location-dependent parameter, and a source term is introduced in the transport equation for the turbulent dissipation rate. The application of the proposed methodology to cases involving obstacles in the flow is made possible through the implementation of an algorithm, which automatically switches the turbulence model formulation when going from the region where the ABL is undisturbed to the region directly affected by the building. Finally, the model is completed with a slightly modified version of the Richards and Hoxey rough-wall boundary condition. The methodology is implemented and tested in the commercial code Ansys Fluent 12.1. Results are presented for a neutral boundary layer over flat terrain and for the flow around a single building immersed in an ABL.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the antarctic surface wind climate from ERA reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT simulations based on automatic weather stations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Javier Sanz Rodrigo  Jean-Marie Buchlin  Jeroen van Beeck  Jan T. M. Lenaerts  Michiel R. van den Broeke 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):353-376

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k _w . Very high values (k _w  > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes (k _w  < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s^?1. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets.  相似文献   

A perfectly matched layer absorbing boundary condition for the second-order seismic wave equation   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

Dimitri Komatitsch  Jeroen Tromp 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,154(1):146-153

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Calibration of restitution coefficients using rockfall simulations based on 3D photogrammetry model: a case study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dong Hyun Kim  Ivan Gratchev  Jeroen Berends  Arumugam Balasubramaniam 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(3):1931-1946

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The Evolution of Black Hole States     

Jeroen Homan  Tomaso Belloni 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,300(1-3):107-117

We discuss the evolution of black hole transients on the basis of a few systems that were intensively observed with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (rxte). We focus on the global evolution and the observed state transitions. Rather than giving a numerical recipe for classifying observations, we try to identify times during outbursts at which clear changes occur in the X-ray variability, X-ray spectral, or multi-wavelength properties.  相似文献