Verification of compliance with GHG emission targets: annex B countries     

A. Bun  K. Hamal  M. Jonas  M. Lesiv 《Climatic change》2010,103(1-2):215-225

The focus of this study is on the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. Preparatory signal detection is a measure that should be taken prior to/during negotiation of the Protocol. It allows the ranking of countries under the Protocol according to their realized versus their agreed emission changes and in terms of both certainty and credibility. Controlling GHGs is affected by uncertainty and may be costly. Thus, knowing whether each nation is doing its part is in the public interest. At present, however, countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are obliged to include in the reporting of their annual inventories direct or alternative estimates of the uncertainty associated with these, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) good practice guidance reports. As a consequence, inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol. Although uncertainties are becoming increasingly available, monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with separately. In our study we analyze estimates of both emission changes and uncertainties to advance the evaluation of countries and their performance under the Protocol. Our analysis allows supply and demand of emissions credits to be examined in consideration of uncertainty. For the purpose of our exercise, we make use of the Undershooting and Verification Time concept described by Jonas et al. (Clim Change doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9914-6, 2010).  相似文献   

Backward snow depth reconstruction at high spatial resolution based on time‐lapse photography          下载免费PDF全文

Jesús Revuelto  Tobias Jonas  Juan‐Ignacio López‐Moreno 《水文研究》2016,30(17):2976-2990

We report a methodology for reconstructing the daily snow depth distribution at high spatial resolution in a small Pyrenean catchment using time‐lapse photographs and snow depletion rates derived from an on‐site measuring meteorological station. The results were compared with the observed snow depth distribution, determined on a number of separate occasions using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). The time‐lapse photographs were projected onto a digital elevation model of the study site, and converted into snow presence/absence information. The melt‐out date (MOD; first occurrence of melt out after peak snow accumulation) was obtained from the projected photograph series. Commencing the backward reconstruction for each grid cell at the MOD, the method uses simulated snow depth depletion rates using a temperature index approach, which are extrapolated to the grid cells of the domain to arrive at the snow distribution of the previous day. Two variants of the reconstruction techniques were applied (1) using a spatially constant degree day factor (DDF) for calculating the daily expected snow depth depletion rate, and (2) allowing a spatially distributed DDF calculated from two consecutive TLS acquisitions compared to the snow depth depletion rate observed at the meteorological station. Validation revealed that both methods performed well (average R² = 0.68; standard RMSE = 0.58), with better results obtained from the spatially distributed approach. Nevertheless, the spatially corrected DDF reconstruction, which requires TLS data, suggests that the constant DDF approach is an efficient, and for most applications sufficiently accurate and easily reproducible method. The results highlight the usefulness of time‐lapse photography for not only determining the snow covered area, but also for estimating the spatial distribution of snow depth. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis and integrated modelling of groundwater infiltration to sewer networks          下载免费PDF全文

Søren Thorndahl  Jonas Dueholm Balling  Uffe Bay Bøgh Larsen 《水文研究》2016,30(18):3228-3238

Infiltration of groundwater to sewer systems is a problem for the capacity of the system as well as for treatment processes at waste water treatment plants. This paper quantifies the infiltration of groundwater to a sewer system in Frederikshavn Municipality, Denmark, by measurements of sewer flow and novel model set‐up, which simulates the interaction between groundwater and sewer flow. The study area has a separate waste water sewer system, but the discharged volumes from the system are approximately twice the volumes from a tight system without infiltration. The model set‐up makes use of two commercial models: mike she for simulation of groundwater transport and mike urban (mouse ) [DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark] for simulation of sewer flow. By simulating the groundwater level and calibrating infiltration coefficients against sewer flow measurements, it has been possible to estimate the average infiltration to the sewer system with satisfying results. The infiltration processes are indeed complicated and to a large degree heterogeneous throughout the sewer system. The paper shows contribution from both saturated and unsaturated groundwater zones, which makes the modelling process complex. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions     

Manfred Lenzen  Roberto Schaeffer  Jonas Karstensen  Glen P. Peters 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):815-824

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.  相似文献   

Investigation of the impact in variation of secondary radioclimatic variables on microwave at the lower atmosphere     

Agbo Udoka Jonas  Ugbor Desmond Okechukwu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,120(1-2):83-86

The work discusses the effect in the variations of secondary radioclimatic parameters in Nsukka, Nigeria. The data collected from the measured atmospheric profile using two automatic wireless weather stations for 3 years were used to estimate the propagation condition, geoclimatic factor, and effective earth radius. The result shows that, the calculated median value of k-factor is 1.595, with an absolute span of 0.26 of the standard value of k-factor 1.333 owing to the increase in relative humidity during the rainy seasons and intensive temperature inversion in the morning and early afternoon periods of December due to the dry harmattan for the season. Also, from the result super-refraction propagation condition was observed for about 7 months of a year, while ducting condition dominates the remaining 5 months in the region. The regression analysis of k-factor as a function of ground refractivity showed that the pair is strongly correlated (0.9996). These results have not been obtained in the region and it will help in planning of radio wave line-of-sight for better signal reception.  相似文献   

Anthropogenic heat in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil     

Mauricio Jonas Ferreira  Amauri Pereira de Oliveira  Jacyra Soares 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):43-56

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q _F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm^?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm^?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm^?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q _FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q _FS) and human metabolism (Q _FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m^?2?month^?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q _F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.  相似文献   

Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective     

Sonali P. Shukla  Mark A. Chandler  David Rind  Linda E. Sohl  Jeff Jonas  Jean Lerner 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1869-1887

Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ??permanent?? El Ni?o-like (herein termed ??El Padre??) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE??, a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective pathways appear traversing the Asian continent toward the North Pacific. The changes in the atmospheric circulation of Indian Ocean region in response to the underlying specified SST forcing (and indicated by Pliocene paleo-data) may have a host of implications for energy transfer out of and into the region, including interactions with the Asian jet stream and changes to the seasonal monsoon cycle. These interactions warrant further study in both past and future warm climate scenarios.  相似文献   

Geology,petrology and geochemistry of the “Americano do Brasil” layered intrusion,central Brazil,and its Ni–Cu sulfide deposits     

Jonas Mota e Silva  Cesar Fonseca Ferreira Filho  Bernhard Bühn  Elton Luiz Dantas 《Mineralium Deposita》2011,46(1):57-90

The “Americano do Brasil” Complex (ABC) is part of a cluster of coeval synorogenic mafic–ultramafic intrusions emplaced during the Brasiliano/Pan-African Orogenic Cycle in Brazil. The medium-sized ABC consists of interlayered dunite, peridotite, websterite, and gabbronorite. High Fo values of olivine (up to Fo₈₈) and the crystallization sequence of the ABC (Ol + Chr ≥ Ol + Opx + Chr ≥ Cpx + Opx ≥ Opx + Pl + Cpx ≥ Opx + Pl + Cpx + Ilm + Mag) suggest crystallization from tholeiitic high-MgO parental magmas. Light rare earth element (REE)-enriched mantle-normalized REE profiles and εNd(T) values of +2.4 for cumulate rocks from the ABC suggest a depleted mantle source for the parental magma. The ABC Ni–Cu sulfide deposit (3.1 Mt at 1.12 wt.% Ni and 1.02 wt.% Cu) consists of three distinctively different orebodies (S1, S2, and G2). The S2 orebody, an unusual occurrence of stratiform massive sulfide hosted by dunite and peridotite in the interior of a layered intrusion, results from sulfides accumulated at the transient base of the magma chamber following a new influx of parental magma. The G2 orebody has an irregular and roughly cylindrical shape, consisting mainly of net-textured sulfides. The G2 orebody is hosted by peridotite and pyroxenite and located stratigraphically below the S1 orebody. S2 and G2 orebodies are characterized by low Cu/Cu + Ni ratios (mainly below 0.4). The S1 orebody, hosted by websterite and gabbronorite in the more fractionated sequence of the ABC, is a cluster of several irregular discontinuous orebodies of Ni–Cu disseminated sulfides. The sulfides of the S1 orebody have high Cu/Cu + Ni ratios (mainly between 0.5 and 0.8) and are highly depleted in PGE. The S1 orebody is interpreted to result from a later event of sulfide segregation in the magma chamber, possibly following the event that originated the G2 orebody. The bulk of δ³⁴S values for sulfides of the ABC orebodies and their host rocks fall in the range of 0 ± 2‰. Higher δ³⁴S values (between 3‰ and 5‰) are restricted to pyrite from xenoliths of gneiss located close to the S1 orebody and sulfides from the S1 orebody. Crustal xenoliths and chemical data (lithogeochemistry and sulfur isotope composition) provide evidence of crustal contamination of the igneous rocks hosting the S1 orebody, suggesting that sulfur saturation was induced by contamination with sulfide-bearing crustal rocks. The ABC deposit is an example of Ni–Cu sulfide mineralization hosted by synorogenic mafic–ultramafic intrusions. The S2 orebody is the first documented example of an economic stratiform massive sulfide orebody located within layered intrusions, expanding the opportunities for exploration of Ni–Cu sulfides in orogenic regions worldwide.  相似文献   

Improving the performance of genetic algorithms for land-use allocation problems     

Jonas Schwaab  Kalyanmoy Deb  Erik Goodman  Sven Lautenbach  Maarten J. van Strien  Adrienne Grêt-Regamey 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(5):907-930

Multi-objective optimization can be used to solve land-use allocation problems involving multiple conflicting objectives. In this paper, we show how genetic algorithms can be improved in order to effectively and efficiently solve multi-objective land-use allocation problems. Our focus lies on improving crossover and mutation operators of the genetic algorithms. We tested a range of different approaches either based on the literature or proposed for the first time. We applied them to a land-use allocation problem in Switzerland including two conflicting objectives: ensuring compact urban development and reducing the loss of agricultural productivity. We compared all approaches by calculating hypervolumes and by analysing the spread of the produced non-dominated fronts. Our results suggest that a combination of different mutation operators, of which at least one includes spatial heuristics, can help to find well-distributed fronts of non-dominated solutions. The tested modified crossover operators did not significantly improve the results. These findings provide a benchmark for multi-objective optimization of land-use allocation problems with promising prospectives for solving complex spatial planning problems.  相似文献   

Traffic-related immissions and their impact on historic buildings: implications from a pilot study at two German cities   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Michael Auras  Silvia Beer  Petra Bundschuh  Joachim Eichhorn  Martin Mach  Dirk Scheuvens  Michael Schorling  Jonas von Schumann  Rolf Snethlage  Stephan Weinbruch 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(4):1135-1147

Besides the enormous improvement of air quality in Germany due to the reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions in the last decades, high immissions of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter are frequently observed at traffic-rich urban sites. The changed chemical composition of air pollution requires a new investigation of its impact on historic buildings constructed of natural stone. In a pilot study a multi-disciplinary approach was chosen to obtain information on the actual pollution situation of historic buildings and monuments at traffic hotspots in Germany. The study concentrated on the two German cities of Munich and Mainz of different size, traffic volume and stone inventory. Dose–response functions were calculated to demonstrate the change of impact of different pollutants over the last three decades, and for comparison of traffic hotspots and housing areas of both cities. Numeric modelling on a city-scale was used to identify the historic buildings and monuments affected by elevated traffic immissions. Because a relevant part of these pollutants is dominated by short-range transport, the differences of wind speed and deposition rates were calculated using a street-scale 3D flow and dispersion model regarding traffic volume, wind regime and adjacent buildings. Finally, particulate matter was sampled at different positions of two buildings heavily exposed to traffic emissions. Individual particles were investigated by environmental scanning electron microscopy. After classification of the particles into different chemical groups, the fraction of traffic-induced particulate matter was quantified. Summarizing the results, it must be stated that soiling by traffic-related particulate matter, deposition of nitrates deriving from exhaust emission and other diffusely emitted components bear a severe damage potential for natural building stone at least locally at traffic-rich urban sites.  相似文献